TheClimateChanger

I think some people like to complain about Pittsburgh, but given its location and latitude, 4 official 20+" storms is actually pretty good. Toledo has only had one, and that was in 1900. Detroit has only had one, and it was in the 1800s (in April, no less). And there's been several others that have produced 20"+ in the area, but were somewhat less at the official observation site.

Just for context… Toledo’s 12.5” storm total was sixth biggest on record. https://twitter.com/jayberschback/status/1489460096140775428?s=21

Power just came back on after nearly 16 hours…

Still no power here.

Same here. I can hear branches and tree limbs cracking and falling in the woods.

Power still out here. I don’t know how you guys aren’t getting this ice storm?

Power outage here

Freezing rain has changed to heavy sleet here in southern Beaver.

Probably latent heat release from the rain keeping temperatures near or just above freezing in many places overcoming the colder air advecting in from the north at the surface.

I was actually thinking the icing was worse than expected for this point in time…

I wouldn’t call it a bust. The trees look like a bona fide ice storm already. Sorry for the sideways upload. No idea why it does that?

Not in our area, but the NWS in Charleston has upgraded some of its southeast Ohio counties to an Ice Storm Warning. Now talking about potential for widespread power outages and up to 3/4" of ice accumulation. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 KYZ101-102-OHZ067-075-083-084-040015- /O.UPG.KRLX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220204T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KRLX.IS.W.0001.220203T1602Z-220204T1200Z/ Greenup-Carter-Morgan-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton- Including the cities of Flatwoods, Raceland, Russell, Grayson, Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Grayson Lake State Park, McConnelsville, Stockport, Athens, Jackson, Wellston, Oak Hill, McArthur, and Hamden 1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three tenths to three quarters of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Expect widespread power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages. && $$

Seeing a bit more ice accrual now, especially on the bird feeder. Rhododendrons have icicles hanging from the leaves.

Same as the other report from Beaver County. Sidewalk and driveway are just wet, but there is a very light glaze now accreting on elevated surfaces (tree branches, pine needles, etc.). I think our typical freezing rain setup is coming out of a deep freeze, where the rain arrives prior to temperatures warming above freezing. In this case, temperatures were in the 40s yesterday so road surfaces seem to be above freezing still. Probably would take a few more hours of below freezing temperatures to get any icing on paved surfaces.

This would be a historic storm in northeast Ohio. Wow.

The 11.9 on 1/16-17 was the biggest storm since December 2010 at YNG airport. Still hasn't been a foot storm there since then. I don't know what was going on in December 2010 but they were reporting crazy, inflated snow totals. I don't recall any storms between 1993 and 2009 that would have reached 16" when I lived there. A foot was generally the top.

HRRR getting up into rarified territory for northeast Ohio. Nearly 16 inches at Canton, Akron and Youngstown. 17 inches in Cleveland. If that happens, would be the largest snowstorm in a long, long time for some areas.

HRRR is getting up into crazy territory in northeast Ohio. When was the last time Canton and Youngstown had 16 inches or more? March '93 Superstorm?

I'm old enough to remember when some of the models were depicting that razor thin dropoff over Lake Erie (Canadian, ahem).

Looks like they are fine tuning some details. The warning still says 1-3 inches for entire PIT metro, but the zone area forecast for Butler shows 4-6 now, Beaver 3-5 & Allegheny 1-2.

Seems much colder than progged. The weather channel app insists it is 43 (45 when I was out earlier), but my car thermometer was reading 34-36 in some of the deeper, wooded and snow covered valleys and hollows and 39-41 on the hills. I would watch out for some icing in spots even tonight.

18Z HRRR would be a beast of a storm. Suspect these numbers are overdone.