Jump to content

TheClimateChanger

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,256

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by TheClimateChanger

  1. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like 92 was the official high again. Pretty impressive actually considering the cloud cover. Morgantown made it up to 95F, but there was more sun there this afternoon.
  2. TheClimateChanger
    Another scorcher in the Research Triangle. Up to 97 at the Southeast Regional Climate Center today, with a peak heat index of 112F.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    8 straight 5-minute observations of 90. Got to think even with the rounding at some point, it ticked up sufficiently to reach a true 90F reading. But yeah, cloud cover was much too heavy for to see 94+. Not sure where the NWS was expecting to see heat advisory criteria met today, let alone heat index values up to 104F.
  4. TheClimateChanger
    It was 98 yesterday at the Southeast Regional Climate Center in a shady, tree-filled, low-density part of Chapel Hill, but carry on kvetching about the RDU temperatures. Pretty sure the SERCC knows how to reliably measure temperature.
  5. TheClimateChanger
  6. TheClimateChanger
    Edit: Confirmed. We can see the extreme thermometers were installed on a roof of the Administration Building through December 18, 1957, then on a rooftop of the International Arrival Building through at least May 26, 1961. A hygrothermometer was first installed 3400' south of the International Arrival Building at an appropriate 4' AGL on May 26, 1961. Prior to that installation, all of the readings were noncompliant, rooftop readings.
  7. TheClimateChanger
    It's not possible for JFK to have had so many 100+ readings in the early decades. I suspect if you looked at the station metadata, it was installed on a rooftop. Without some sort of correction or adjustment, hard to draw any sort of conclusion about the trend in 100+ heat at JFK.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    Up to 95F at Central Park so far, which is the hottest day since August 9, 2022.
  9. TheClimateChanger
    Technically 2017-2018 was 0.1F above the 1981-2010 normal then in effect, by my calculation. The so-called "normal" keeps being raised.
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Can't wait for someone to "ackshually" me. The 1966 reading is bogus - the park was 1.2F warmer than the EWR tarmac? GTFO. Yes, it's cooler than 2010, but not by a margin that anyone can discern. And, of course, the 1994 readings are absolute garbage measured by garbage equipment that are not comparable to readings taken before or after that era.
  11. TheClimateChanger
    Like I said, people "feel" it's cooler because they are so acclimated to the heat. I told the Harrisburg crew they should be comparing their summertime temperatures to Richmond, Virginia. It's one of the hottest summers on record at Harrisburg, but compared to historical, 20th century summers in Richmond, it's still a very hot summer just not among the record hottest. I think the New York City crew should do the same. 2024 is among the hottest on record at NYC and EWR, but if you compare NYC to 20th century Richmond and EWR to 20th century RDU then it's still well above the typical summer in those locations during that era, but not among the hottest on record. The DC crew can use Tallahassee or Savannah, Georgia.
  12. TheClimateChanger
    It's literally the hottest summer on record at Newark and New York City. *The 1993 and 1994 readings are erroneous. The HO-83 hygrothermometer in use at the time had a significant warm bias, particularly on sunny days with light winds. The location near the tarmac at Newark probably worsened the problem, as the fan was drawing in superheated air. On average, the ASOS installation was 1.2F cooler for daytime maximum temperatures, and 1.0F cooler for minimum temperatures. But at Newark, the bias may have been more substantial. *The 1966 readings from Central Park are probably not directly comparable to readings today. Sources: climo_rpt_96_2.pdf (colostate.edu) - Study of 79 first-order climate sites between 1994 & 1995 found an average annual max temperature bias of +1.16F, and an average annual low temperature bias of +0.95F from the HO-83 relative to the ASOS installation. Comparison of ASOS and HO-83 temperatures at Lincoln, Nebraska from November 1991 through October 1992 (noaa.gov) - 12-month study from Lincoln, Nebraska study 1991-92. ASOS was from 1.4 to 2.6F cooler for maximum temperatures every month, and from 0.7 to 2.5F cooler for minimum temperatures. An Investigation of Temperature Discontinuities Introduced by the Installation of the HO-83 Thermometer in: Journal of Climate Volume 8 Issue 5 (1995) (ametsoc.org) - Another study, somewhat smaller estimate of 0.6C bias - actually suggests less bias in summer, but not sure that is correct. The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit - cites some more sources, particularly about Tuscon and how the NWS could not confirm a global warming signal in the deadly Chicago heat wave of 1995 because the readings were likely inflated by instrument bias
  13. TheClimateChanger
    Not really going out too far on a limb. PIT is at +3.4F. Given the forecast for the next week, I would expect the mid-month departure to be similar (or even higher). The week 2 outlook from CPC has above normal temperatures coast to coast. The week 3-4 outlook [through 8/2] has above normal temperatures coast to coast. We'd probably need the second half of June to be 4F below normal just to get to normal. I don't think there's been a half month stretch that cold in ages, let alone in the summer when natural variability is at a minimum. And we'd also need to have a monumental forecasting failure of epic proportions to do that. So I'd put the chances of a below normal July at this point at <1%.
  14. TheClimateChanger
    Those HRRR temperatures though...
  15. TheClimateChanger
    Very comfortable dewpoints tomorrow. Most guidance in mid to upper 50s, but HRRR brings it down to upper 40s to around 50 area wide.
  16. TheClimateChanger
    Well, for one, it was at CXY, which is usually warmer for maximum temperatures than MDT. We can see 2024 is a lot closer if we compare CXY records. And two, it was way out of line compared to surrounding observations that summer. June 1966 was fairly close to normal in most of the region, but +3.3F at Harrisburg?
  17. TheClimateChanger
    I'll admit though, these numbers feel off since it's really not that much warmer than many recent summers. So I propose a better way is to compare current summers in Newark to historical summers in Raleigh-Durham. And recent summers at the park in New York City to historical summers in Richmond, Virginia. But in each case, we should limit the comparisons to years before 2001, since those locations have been putting up video game numbers in recent years. When we do that, we see New York City is currently in 36th place [out of 105 years]. And Newark is currently in 14th place [out of 115 years]. Alternatively, we can use a computer model to simulate future years between 2050 and 2100, and limit our comparison to the simulated data, and this very well might be the coldest summer of record.
  18. TheClimateChanger
    Through yesterday, third warmest start to the summer at NYC and warmest on record for EWR. NYC EWR 1993 & 1994 deserves an asterisk, due to defective HO-83 hygrothermometer.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    120 in Vegas today, shattered all-time record by 3F.
  20. TheClimateChanger
  21. TheClimateChanger
    Today is a good example of how difficult it is to have a month warmer than 77F. Warm day - 89/65, but that’s only a mean of 77F. Much easier to do when the low is 70+. Also considering it hit 89 today, the next two days look like sure 90+.
  22. TheClimateChanger
    How about a hot multi-millennial scale tsunami? I think that might be the better analogy.
  23. TheClimateChanger
    After further thought, I think with these Madden numbers, we should compare recent summers to historical summers in Richmond, Virginia, instead of historical summers in Harrisburg. If we do that, we see it's only tied for 24th warmest [of 128 years]. But because Richmond has also been throwing up Madden numbers in recent decades, we should limit the rankings to 2001. If we do that, we see it's been warmer than all but 12 summers [out of 105 years] in Richmond that occurred between 1897 & 2001.
  24. TheClimateChanger
    Wow, almost hit the big 90 in East Nantmeal. What did the non-shaded sensor on the roof read? I think we need asterisks by the partially shaded readings. They are not compliant with siting standards, which are supposed to be taken in full sun free of obstructions.
  25. TheClimateChanger
    Actually after further analysis, I think a record hot summer in the entire threaded record is still possible - albeit remote. But in 2024, I wouldn't toss it out as a possibility. I feel like, despite the warm start, this is probably the cool period of July and the rest of the month might be even hotter. We are currently 1.5F above 1995 to date, which ended up 0.7F cooler than the mythical summer of 1900. Obviously, expecting another August 1995 is a longshot. But I do think July this year is looking like it could put up a number like August 1995 or July 2020, when all is said and done.
×
×
  • Create New...