TheClimateChanger

You would think by the characterization of these threads (March & April) that this has been a cold and miserable spring. In fact, it's been one of the most favored springs on record with excellent planting conditions. By the end of the month, many places should be looking at a top 10 warmest spring season to date. Dayton, Ohio, for instance, where the thread creator resides, is currently in 11th place, which places this season around the 92nd percentile of all years! For the record, 1945 & 1946 were not observed at the airport. Temperatures were quite a bit cooler at the airport site:

One of the most favored springs in the storied history of this Commonwealth to date. Models show continued warmth into the month of May. I suspect that, by the end of April, most places will be top 5-10, with some of the shorter period of record sites perhaps making a push for warmest spring on record. Outstanding conditions for spring planting. Pittsburgh [9th warmest] DuBois [4th warmest] Bradford [3rd warmest] Harrisburg [13th warmest] Williamsport [9th warmest] Altoona [6th warmest] Reading [6th warmest] Allentown [8th warmest] Philadelphia [8th warmest]

Hopefully, it’s not too smoky of a summer. That could keep things a little cooler due to limited insulation. Definitely a bit of a milky haze here today. Not sure what it looks like on the east coast.

Wind never died off completely. More of a pressure gradient than would typically be encountered in the summer. Although the high today (86) was no slouch either - just one degree off the daily record. Actually, there have only been 14 years in which it reached higher than 86F in the month of April, and another 11 where it topped off exactly at 86F. And only two years since 1925 have seen days more than 1F warmer than today in April. So from a historical perspective, this is about as warm it gets in April.

Also, the 7 am temperature of 74F was the highest observation for that time at PIT.

Crazy stuff. Here are some notable highs and lows from April 18, 1875, from ThreadEx sites: New York, New York: 32/25 Albany, New York: 32/21 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 34/25 Baltimore, Maryland: 34/26 Washington, D.C.: 33/25 Toronto, Ontario: 29/10 Buffalo, New York: 23/14 Rochester, New York: 25/15 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: 25/14 Morgantown, West Virginia: 27/18 Cleveland, Ohio: 26/17 Toledo, Ohio: 34/12 Detroit, Michigan: 33/8 Lansing, Michigan: 33/8

Thankfully nothing like 1875 today.

Definitely looking forward to summer. Hopefully, it's another one like last year which saw 24 days of 90+ at KPIT. Forecast calls for highs near 80F tomorrow, a big change from the frosty start today!

While yesterday's severe threat ended up staying well south of the region, there could be some feisty (thunder)showers this afternoon. While the activity looks to stay sub-severe, there could be some small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1116 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029- 031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513-152100- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland- Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Indiana, Armagh, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, and Saint George 1116 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025 ...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... Showers and thunderstorms may produce small hail and strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 MPH through this afternoon. Outside of showers and storms, winds will be sustained around 20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH. $$ TC

Looks like a risk of severe weather tomorrow with the best chances south of Interstate 70.

A little light at the end of the tunnel that may help @Spartmanstep back from the ledge.

Here are some interesting tidbits from Blodget's 1857 work "Climatology of the United States and of the temperate latitudes of the North American Continent": The frequent occurrence of snows in April and even in May in the latitude of Washington is a striking phenomenon of the climate. As early as 1755 Richard Brooke, "of Maryland," communicated observations to the Royal Phil. Society in which he remarks of April, 1755, “on the 16th it snowed as hard as ever I knew it to do”; and of the same month in 1757 “the wettest and coldest April within man’s memory”. (Phil. Trans., 1759.) At several instances in recent years a quantity of snow has fallen in April in several instances a foot or more in depth in the interior valleys of Virginia. On April 22d, 1856, a small quantity fell at Washington, and near a foot in depth in Upper Virginia. A remarkable instance of the extension of snows southward at extreme intervals is given by Abiel Holmes of Charleston, S. C., in a paper communicating the results of many years of observations at Charleston to the American Academy. On January 10th, 1800, there fell at Savannah the deepest snow accompanied by the greatest cold ever remembered in Lower Georgia. The snow was three feet deep on a level.” The yearly extremes of temperature for several years are also given by Mr. Holmes, as observed at Charleston. — Memoirs Am. Acad., 1809. +-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+ | Year | Max Temp (°F) | Min Temp (°F) | +-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+ | 1750 | 96 | 25 | | 1751 | 94 | 23 | | 1752 | 101 | 18 | | 1753 | 91 | 28 | | 1754 | 93 | 22 | | 1755 | 90 | 27 | | 1756 | 96 | 26 | | 1757 | 90 | 25 | | 1758 | 94 | 25 | | 1759 | 93 | 27 | | 1791 | 90 | 28 | | 1792 | 96 | 20 | | 1793 | 89 | 30 | | 1794 | 91 | 34 | | 1795 | 92 | 29 | | 1796 | 89 | 17 | | 1797 | 85 | 22 | | 1798 | 88 | 31 | +-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+ On March 6th, 1843, snow fell for fifteen hours at Augusta, Georgia, covering the ground fifteen inches deep. (Holbrook in Am. Alm., 1845.) In this month snow fell over a large area of the States bordering the Gulf, embracing New Orleans and Mobile. Ramsey says (Views of South Carolina, vol. 11, p. 52): “On December 31st, 1790, wind northeast, a severe snow storm began in Charleston which continued twelve hours. In consequence the streets were covered with snow two to four inches deep. Another took place on February 28th, 1790, wind northwest, which continued several hours and covered the ground five or six inches deep. Similar snow storms fell in January 1800, and were then thrice repeated in twenty-three days, amounting in all to more than ten inches.

Yeah, my magnolia blooms look like they took a hit. Not sure if they will recover and open.

Definitely an interesting time to be a weather geek. September 24, 1950 ("Black Sunday") is the third coldest on record at Detroit for that month, with a high of 46F. The Day the Sun Disappeared—September 24, 1950 - Burchfield Penney Art Center Black Sunday: Darkness falls in the PA Wilds - Pennsylvania Wilds And then, of course, November brought the Great Appalachian Storm which produced record-breaking snow for the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. The high of 17F on the 24th, being eclipsed by only three dates, all earlier than 1950 (12F, on 11/21/1880; 16F on 11/22/1880; and 14F on 11/29/1950). I don't know what was going on in 1880 but there were a whole slew of record low maxima. Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 - Wikipedia

Yeah, that's why I was pointing out those observations. 1816 is known as the "year without a summer" due to the Tambora eruption the year prior.

Wow!

While there are other references to a "red sun" - not as frequent as these - strewn throughout the journal. The instances where sunspots were visible to the naked eye are the only instances noted in the entire journal. The sunspot activity might be a bit of a surprise as this was during the height of the Dalton Minimum. However, this does correspond with the maximum for Solar Cycle VI, which occurred in April 1816. So, there must have a fair amount of sunspot activity at that time despite the relative minimum of solar activity.

I was recently reading Leonard Hill's meteorological journal for East Bridgewater, Massachusetts, which extends from 1806-1869. One thing I found interesting was the observations from 1816. Interesting observations: April 28 - "sun red"; April 29 - "sun red"; April 30 - "spots on the sun -- very red"; May 1 - "sun red"; May 5 - "sun red"; May 6 - "spots on sun"; May 18 - "sun red"; May 19 - "red spots on sun"; June 1 - "red sun"; June 21 - "spots on sun; sun red"; August 19 - "spots on sun" We can also see the likely cause of the failed harvest. While the journal probably seems quite a bit colder to us, it looks like most of the weather wasn't too out of the ordinary for the journalist's time. An April with 4" of snow on April 12, that lingers for a few days, with some additional light snows on April 18 & 20, are described as "mild" and "little snow." But we see there was a heavy killing frost on June 10. Afterwards, it seems like crops were progressing okay, albeit perhaps a bit droughty, but in the end of September, a hard freeze struck before the crop was ready probably owing to having been replanted after the June frost?

IMO, in heavy blowing and drifting conditions, the board measurements should always be compared with a number of readings from the ground to ensure it is reasonable - could undercount or overcount depending on the conditions (windspeed, wind direction, surroundings, whether there was already a significant amount of snow on the ground, etc.).

Compare that today, and you get nonsense like this. The board clearing procedure is too difficult for FAA contractors. Extreme Snowfall Reports: How Reliable Are They? | Weather Underground In December 2017, Erie reported 51" of snow in 24 hours, setting a new state record. The record was later disallowed and the numbers adjusted because they were clearing the board hourly and measuring a bunch of snow that was blowing and drifting onto the board. The original measurements had 26.5" of snow falling on December 26, with the depth dropping from 28" on the morning of the 26th to 23" on the morning of the 27th. Now I know fake effect snow sublimates away like crazy, but c'mon. And I know similar errors have taken place at EWR and BWI in the recent past. December 25-27, 2017: See here for the same type of error at BWI: Last Winter's Record Snow Miscalculated At BWI-Marshall - CBS Baltimore

Most historic snow totals are undoubtedly understated. And I would argue that extends even beyond 1980. Here is DuBois, PA for February 1993. Note the depth goes from 0 to 15 inches, even though only 14.0" was recorded as having fallen. It gets even worse when you consider 0.8" of that fell before depth reached zero. So, from February 10 to February 26, the depth increased by 15" even though only 13.2" of snow was recorded.

So much for that UHI. DTW had a low of 29F on the 5th, versus 39F at FNT and 37F at MBS. Crazy.

Nothing like 1950 though. On April 13, the high was 24F at Detroit City Airport and 22F at Flint.

A frosty 15F at Bradford this morning. The record is 7F from 1972.

They keep shifting these products earlier and earlier. I like the approach of NWS Nashville. Meanwhile, there are freeze products in effect all the way into central Ohio and Indiana on April 8/9.