TheClimateChanger

Wow, they need to expand that y-axis. We're not seeing the full ensemble mean spread for late summer because it's cutoff by the current y-axis. Some of those individual model runs must be at or near BOE criteria as well.

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

Same story in the District, where the 10-year period ending 12/31/2025 narrowly beat the 10-year period 12/31/2024. I wonder if 2017-2026 will outdo 2016-2025 and 2015-2024. Will be interesting to see. At least 22.2" is needed to avoid a new record - a very solid tally for the District.

While we watch the digital snowfall totals pile up and hope some of that comes into fruition, I thought it would be a good time to take a look back at the historic 10-year snow drought. Very impressive numbers, and we will need some fairly hefty snowfall in 2026 just to keep pace - especially at Baltimore, where nearly three feet (35.1") would need to fall just to prevent 2017-2026 from being even less snowy than 2016-2025. To put that into perspective, only 18 calendar years at Baltimore have seen more than 35.1" of snow!

As our historical snow drought enters yet another year, I thought I'd take a look at the numbers at Philadelphia. Very impressive, with the most recent 10 years checking in as the least snowy on record. 2026 will need at least 27.5" of snow during the calendar year to avoid a new futility record. That's a respectable tally, so it's possible that 2017-2026 could be even less snowy than 2016-2025. Stay tuned!

The post was referring to CONUS temperatures. While Alaska is part of the US, Canada is a separate country and has not, in fact, been annexed as of 1/2/2026. If we are going to include other countries, might as well tack on Mexico, which has been scorching. Or just do the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has been consistently running more than 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_mollw/ANOM2m_f144_mollw.png

Ice advancing quickly now. Erie more than 1/4 ice covered, as of today, which is 9% higher than the 53-year mean. The thaw next week should trim that back.

Mesoscale discussion #1 of 2026:

SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS PITTSBURGH PA 1035 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025 PAC019-031-073-085-121-010415- /O.CON.KPBZ.SQ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260101T0415Z/ 1035 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025 Butler County-Clarion County-Lawrence County-Mercer County-Venango County- ...SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EST FOR SOUTHERN MERCER, SOUTHERN VENANGO, NORTHERN BUTLER, WEST CENTRAL CLARION AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... At 1035 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line from near Oil City to near Farrell, or along a line from near Oil City to near Sharon, moving south at 15 mph. Visbility dropped to one-quarter mile at the airport in Franklin. HAZARD...Intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds leading to blowing snow and rapidly falling visibility. Wind gusts up to 35 mph. SOURCE...Doppler radar and airport visibility sensors. IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous within minutes. Locations impacted include... Hermitage, Sharon, Oil City, Grove City, Franklin, Sharpsville, Knox, Sugarcreek, Farrell, Slippery Rock, New Wilmington, Oakwood, New Castle Northwest, Mercer, Pulaski, Hasson Heights, Stoneboro, Seneca, New Bedford and Harrisville. This includes the following highways... Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 56. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 109 and 128. Interstate 376 between mile markers 0 and 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow Down! Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are expected with this dangerous snow squall. Be alert for sudden whiteout conditions. LAT...LON 4128 8052 4146 7962 4119 7949 4116 7968 4117 7969 4115 7969 4100 8052 4128 8052 SNOW SQUALL...OBSERVED $$

Not sure if it's possible to embed but here's some lightning earlier in McKean Township, just south of Erie. https://www.facebook.com/reel/1873659720188526

Thundersnow in northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York.

Didn't measure, but eyeballing looks like at least 2, maybe 3 inches here. Squall line showing up on radar south of Cleveland.

Looking at upstream observations. Some freezing drizzle being reported at YNG.

Are we sure this uptick in winds isn't the result of the new Vaisala WMT-702 ultrasonic Ice-Free Wind Sensors?

Snowing here, although it is a grainier snow, not the fluff from earlier.

The airport is reporting freezing drizzle. Hopefully that won't last long!

Wow, big gains over the last two days. Almost wonder if the wind wasn't messing with algorithm. Now just 1% below the 52-year average.

Another weathergami on Monday:

Solid start. I'm probably closing in on an additional inch. Grass is completely covered now.

That's our bread and butter. Although I'm gonna have to call foul on the airport (actually the NWS office in Moon) being moved 20 miles south, since it already did better than probably 75-80% of the area with the last event. It doesn't need to be the jackpot for every event.

Good news on the Lake Erie ice front. Recent warmth has brought total ice coverage down to less than 25% of normal to date (4% coverage versus mean of 13% for the date). All of the lakes are running a little behind normal, as of yesterday's analysis.

Snow squall conditions possible tomorrow night, per NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-077- WVZ001>004-012-021-509-310200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0028.251231T1800Z-260101T1500Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont- Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Kittanning, Washington, Uniontown, Morgantown, New Philadelphia, New Castle, Malvern, Woodsfield, Weirton, Monaca, Canonsburg, Indiana, Salem, Monessen, Moundsville, Lower Burrell, Ellwood City, Waynesburg, Latrobe, New Martinsville, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Ford City, Murrysville, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Kensington, Butler, Follansbee, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Cadiz, East Liverpool, Steubenville, Fairmont, Greensburg, Columbiana, Carrollton, Wheeling, and Dover 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. Snow squall conditions will be possible during the evening and overnight. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$ 88