George001

I don’t know about that. The MJO plots have it briefly going into phase 4 (relaxation period early Feb?) and then potentially into the cold phases again. My biggest concern is that we will see more of the same, cold and dry. That has been the pattern the first half of winter, often these patterns have a tendency to lock in. Honestly think there is a decent chance we finish the winter with both below normal temps and below normal snowfall, which is very rare especially with the acceleration of climate change. We have seen a tendency towards warm/wet as AGW progresses. It is unfortunate that this cold pattern has not been a snowy one, as cold winters like this are becoming rarer and rarer as our climate warms. It would be nice to capitalize on it and snow when we do get cold weather.

Eyeballing 5 inches or so here

Radar looks pretty good. I was nervous when I saw the temps earlier and was thinking this would be a bust for my area. Hoping the NWS had the right idea sticking to their guns calling for 6-8 inches here. I would be happy with that.

Looks like this is turning into more of an interior event

Its worse than that, I’m worried we will end up getting another shitty 2-4 inch event. The NWS is forecasting 6-8 inches here, it needs to cool off FAST for that to happen. Unacceptable performance from guidance this close in. The Euro had 8+ for us just yesterday.

I’m concerned about the temps to start, they are warmer than modeled. Im concerned that we are staring down yet another rug pull, guidance was consistent giving me 6+ over the past day or so, but with these starting temps I don’t know about that. Very disappointing

Severe thunderstorms?

Gfs is a burial

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

Yeah I’m feeling good about this one. This will likely be the biggest storm since the Jan 2022 blizzard here, and there are more threats in the pipeline.

I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

I’m all in, thinking 8-12 here

I like the setup for threat 3 a lot better than threat 2, but the one that excites me the most is tomorrow’s storm.

Euro was weak and strung out. Gfs is way better, it has a deeper low that goes over the cape.

Stormy pattern too. We have 3 snow threats over the next 8 days

For areas that mix sure, but I’m taking the over on that for places that stay all snow.

Euro is weak and strung out

Realistically I could get anything from rain to a couple inches of fluff to 12-18 inches of snow. Not too common to see that wide a range of possible outcomes this close in.

I’d be surprised if I see less than 6. 10:1 snow maps tend to be underdone in these setups.

The low location is 200+ miles NW of where it was being modeled 2 days ago on the GFS. Fast flow patterns are really tough on the models.

I like this setup, yeah you aren’t getting a huge blizzard here but this is a COLD airmass. I love the look on the 6z gfs, around a ~1000mb low near the benchmark with frigid upper levels and surface temps in the mid 20s at the height of the storm. It’s a similar setup to the storm 2 weeks before the huge blizzard in Jan 2022.

So it looks like we have the Navy on board for the day 7 threat. This is a big deal, as other guidance is more weak and strung out. Navgem rule says to watch out as the SE biased Navy being this amped is a red flag…

Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here.

Horrible

A common theme in modoki la Nina’s is the storm track shifts north in Feb and Mar. Usually that’s not good for the east because it means rain. However, this year has been both colder and has a MUCH farther south storm track than a typical modoki Nina. So the cold shifting more west with the storm track shifting NW come Feb-Mar may not be such a bad thing snow wise. Also depends on what the MJO does. Yeah, If it goes into the null phases after 2-3 that would help us out a lot. Avoiding phases 4-6 is the key. Feb is a tough call, looks more stormy on the long range guidance but temps are a big question mark. It will likely be warmer than Jan, but there is a huge difference between normal or even slightly above normal and a +5 torch. That could easily be the difference between big snows and no snow.