George001

The 6th is dead but I’m not giving up on the 10-11th. Guidance is still way offshore but we have seen some positive trends the past few runs of the gfs. The gfs is ejecting more energy out west. Need that trend to continue.

In the other forum im on i am seeing mass panic from mid Atlantic weenies in the main thread. I like seeing that, I hope they rain! Lets get this fucker another 200 miles north.

Get that energy out west on the 18z gfs to eject quicker and it’s game on for the second threat. Good signal for the 10-11th.

For the 11th threat, we continue to see the models flip flop. The most recent runs have the energy buried out west so it never gets out ahead of the northern energy, leading to an out to sea solution. Yesterday had a 951 MB low plowing into NNE on the gfs. It will continue to go back and forth over the next week. I don’t want to see the low plowing into NNE, but I am hoping the models converge on the solutions where the energy is ejected faster so we have a shot. That’s a legitimate big storm potential. If that storm gets buried out west the cold and dry idea will end up being correct, and we will have to wait until mid month and beyond. As for the 6th…. I’m not holding out any hope for that one with confluence modeled over New England. Just no room for that low to come up the coast.

It’s possible we get nothing, but the large scale features argue for an increased probability of big snows in January. If we get unlucky and whiff on every threat so be it, but I like my chances. Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances with precip.

Yeah it was, I wanted to challenge him to a duel so bad but as much as I don’t like the guy, he was right. I realized mid argument that my reading comprehension failed me (he said WITH THIS 500mb it can’t trend 150+ miles north, which is true. If the 500mb changes it’s a different story). I knew I was wrong, but I was in too deep so I doubled down anyways, also the guy was being annoying about it. Unfortunately, that guy wasn’t being unreasonable enough to justify challenging him to a duel.

I have a confession to make: I briefly went off the deep end again and nearly challenged someone to a duel on another forum. I caught myself and snapped out of it. But holy shit Mid Atlantic weenies….. they literally drive me insane.

Yeah confluence over NYC isn’t going to cut it.

From what I’ve seen over the years of tracking guidance struggles the most in NS dominant La Niña patterns and blocking patterns. This is a very complicated setup with lots of moving parts. Nothing is locked in at this range, hell even 3 days out I wouldn’t be confident in a solution in this pattern.

Some will disagree and blame x y and z for why December wasn’t very snowy, but I would gladly roll the dice with the look we had. Just because it didn’t snow as much as I would have liked doesn’t mean there was something fundamentally wrong with the pattern that meant it COULDNT snow. It comes down to probability, the month of December will average slightly BN temp wise, and we had persistent western ridging. In my opinion that was plain old bad luck. Sure, it’s possible to have an extended run of bad luck, but claiming that just because we got unlucky in December or past years means it’s more likely something will go wrong again is bad logic. The probability this upcoming pattern will produce is what it is, what happened in the past doesn’t change that.

Yep. Ultimately what matters is it’s going to get cold. Small windows of opportunity sandwiched between warmth doesn’t do anything for me, because even if it does snow it will melt fast. If the Jan 6-7th wave moves north and gives us even a couple of inches, it’s possible we don’t see grass for the rest of January. Even if that doesn’t pan out, if the long range guidance is correct we will have a large window of opportunity like Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Feb 2013, Mar 2018 etc. Not every storm will hit, suppression is definitely a risk especially with the first threat but if you have 3-4 weeks of BN temps the probability you get hit with big snows is much higher. Sure, it could be cold and dry like December but I’ll roll the dice with this look. I’m probably going to get weenied for this, but I would rather roll the dice with this look than the one we got in Jan 2022 (and that was a VERY snowy month here).

NYC is just far enough north that they do well (not as well as SNE though) in strong miller b nor’easters such as Jan 2015, Feb 2013, Dec 2020, etc. In our best storms where we get 2+ feet NYC gets 6-12 while DC, Baltimore and anywhere south of them get rain.

For my area I don’t mind NYC weenies being excited about the pattern because often they do well when SNE does well, but when weenies in the southern mid Atlantic and Deep South are excited that’s not a good thing. I want them to rain.

In strong El Niños. This is a La Niña.

the gfs has a 967mb low over the cape. Holy shit

No AN temps through Feb 9th. If right, that’s a real window. None of that bullshit 1 week of opportunity sandwiched between +4 to +5 AN temps.

No AN temps through Feb 9th. Late Jan-early Feb is warmer than the early-mid Jan period but it’s still plenty cold enough for snow with a Nina gradient pattern look developing towards the end.

I like the setup for the 6-7th, miller b potential

I was skeptical of La Niña myself, but things change. ENSO 3.4 is at -0.8 on the weeklies, this isn’t a projection thing anymore. La Niña is here and will likely play a role in the upcoming January pattern. It’s not moderate, but it doesn’t need to be to influence the pattern.

I would have gotten sucked in by a threat like this a few years ago, but now I know better to not use 10:1 snow maps in these marginal setups. Accumulated positive snow depth tells the story, snow confined to the mountains, not much accumulation for us living at sea level. Im expecting mostly rain and maybe a bit of non accumulating snow at the end here, what interests me is what happens after that storm passes.

I was calling for a January torch in my winter forecast, thats one of the reasons why I put said forecast on bust watch last night.

Interestingly, weak La Ninas are snowier than ENSO neutral for my area. So I’m glad to see that La Niña development has progressed during December.

After looking at some long range indicators more closely, I am officially putting all winter forecasts calling for a mild and below normal snow winter on BUST watch. I’m not saying this to throw shade, I went warm and below normal snow myself. I’m doing this because I’m already seeing signs that the key assumptions I made when looking at analogs are going to be wrong. The PDO is barely negative now, my forecast called for a moderate to strong -PDO. December has been a cold month, even with the late month relaxation period it will finish slightly BN temp wise. I thought December would be warm.

My winter forecast is officially on bust watch. Why? -The PDO has risen significantly, went from -3 in October to -0.7 now in late December. My forecast called for a moderate to strongly negative PDO. -My ENSO call was for cold neutral, looks like we are getting a late developing weak central based La Niña instead. -December has been much colder than I expected.

It wasn’t Dec 2010 or anything where we got buried with snow, but I have 0 issues with how this month played out. It actually feels like winter and we are going to have our first white Christmas in almost a decade here.