George001

Nowcast event?

How does round 2 look on the Euro?

I hope it trends so far west tblizz rains. Don’t want him mehing his way to another foot.

Idk about one band, it looks like more is coming in on Monday after the first band. There is a second low retrograding, gotta watch out for that. Isn’t that similar to what happened in March 2013?

Nam time

What are some good analogs for the high end outcome for this threat? I have no idea what I’m looking at.

Nam looks like it would back in more precip if you extrapolate it.

It could be a decent storm but I don’t think it really has blizzard potential. Pattern is too progressive for that. Could be a moderate event if things break right.

Euro doubled down, I did not expect that. It is not a typical setup, but what does give it some upside is the energy stalls off the coast and even retrogrades a bit. It almost looks like it is close to absorbing the energy to the west, re energizing the storm. It needs work, but worth keeping an eye on the possibility the storm keeps trending west, with snow backing in all the way to central and even western Mass.

You thinking similar to 2012-2013? That winter started slow like this one but ended up being a great winter.

Interesting, looks like the Nao is going from positive to neutral. I’d like to see that more negative but storm threats do happen more often when the teleconnections are transitioning.

I’m starting to get interested in the Sunday system again. Probably not anything big due to how progressive the pattern is, but maybe an outside shot at a few inches.

I buy it to an extent but I agree with the Pope that even if we get it, it’s not a good pattern for SNE. The ridge axis scares me, and the blocking looks weak, too weak to stop storms from running inland. Hopefully Ray is right about the big finish in March.

Im skeptical, it looks like an inland runner pattern with how far west the western ridge axis is. Cold, but with that ridge axis I would think we would be on the east side of the low, and would warm up and rain in time for the storm. Gotta get that to move east.

The theme of the next few weeks looks to be much of the same as it was in December even after the record warmth ends. On the long range models at first glance the long range looks favorable, with a -nao and western ridge. However, the western ridge axis is displaced several hundred miles west of ideal, which supports an inland running track like we saw in December. This isn’t a 2011-2012 winter, but I don’t think it’s going to be a snowy one in SNE. Like 2018-2019, it looks like the dominant storm track will remain to our west meaning we will be looking….. you guessed it, up and in!

Its not just that we aren’t getting blizzards. If it were normal temp with a storm track to the west or hell even somewhat above normal with somewhat below normal to the west, I would not be blaming climate change. The issue is how it’s much easier to get warmth than it is to get cold now. Favorable pattern? -2. Bad pattern? +10.

The west isn’t as cold as we are warm. They are below average, we are record warm. Isn’t the NH snowcover record low right now too?

Eh i don’t think we should ignore the effect of climate change on our weather patterns. Yes, it’s not as simple as “100 years ago this would have been an epic pattern but it sucks now due to climate change”, but when the entire planet is warming like it is that’s going to have a domino effect. Maybe the same physical drivers that lead to x longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to y longwave pattern now. Or maybe the same longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to different results now.

With a high to the north and torched mid levels due to the low location I wonder if we will see a bigger area of sleet or ice rather than just rain se, snow nw. Maybe an ice to rain scenario in SNE?

Looks good for NNE. You thinking we see something similar to the mid Dec storm? Rain most of SNE, big snows NNE and the Berkshires. I’m thinking it’s going to be an elevation and NNE storm, with a low in Chicago.

overnight runs were up and in again. Euro is a hugger (low over central PA), gfs cuts the low to Chicago, Canadian similar to Euro, Icon also similar. Then we have the Navy on its own with more aggressive Miller B redevelopment. Hopefully everything trends towards the Navy but I’m skeptical. Looks like the Pope had the right idea, doesn’t look like an SNE snower but NNE could do well.

That’s not where we want to see the low

The 1/14th threat is….. up and in yet again! Big rainstorm for eastern mass.

Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England.

If we’re seriously looking at 1/20 before a favorable pattern sets in on the models with nothing so far I think it’s time to throw in the towel the next couple years. 2024-2025 has big potential though, we are expected to get a strong Nino next year so we can punt that winter, but following a strong nino is often a strong nina. Strong Ninas after a big nino can be really good due to the left over active stj combined with an active northern branch, leading to multiple big storms. But yeah, that’s the main reason why I had a huge melt, I strongly believe next year will rat due to a strong to super El Niño.