George001

That’s why I started tracking and getting excited about rainstorms and torches as well, only tracking snowstorms was just getting me frustrated and it wasn’t fun anymore, so I made the decision to start getting excited about warmer weather and rainstorms too. That gave me a lot more enjoyment with this “winter”, despite it not really being much of a winter at all. Instead of getting upset about what we can’t control, why not make the best of the weather we get?

It’s coming north, in these events a few days out if you are on the southern edge of the snow axis, you likely aren’t getting much snow. For these SWFE events you want to be north enough to have a good 100 miles of wiggle room at this stage of tracking, not 10-20 miles.

We need the Pope on board

It will come north.

Vomit

Strong high to the north leading to frigid temps despite a low running inland. We’re getting a huge ice storm on Thursday, the SE ridge is really powerful and supports the idea of the low coming north.

Im sure there’s a weenie over in Tolland, CT that is happy to hear that.

The pattern does support a big ice storm

This winter is approaching 2011-2012 territory

The winter as a whole is likely beyond saving in SNE at this point but that doesn’t mean we can’t get a big storm in March. Hell, wasn’t 1996-1997 a ratter outside that big April blizzard? Even bad winters often have at least one big (12+) storm. Regardless, have to give credit where it’s due. Boston is at 8 inches of snow for the entire season and it’s mid Feb, and the seasonal average is in the mid 40s. The Pope was dead on with his winter forecast. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the geese next fall to clue me in on what to expect next winter. My winter forecast was a huge bust (again), but we live and learn.

Yeah It’s a straight up modoki Nina now, not what we want to see. What would be really nice is if we went into a multi year nino cycle, with 2-3 consecutive ninos of weak to moderate strength (maybe a moderate one next year and then 2 weak ones after). If that pans out it could lead to a good stretch of winters.

Agree, it’s so warm I don’t even need a jacket. Its 10am and we already broke 60 where I live, we might even have an outside shot at breaking 70 if the sun comes out later today.

The Pope is quite angry today, haven’t seen this much rage from him since the late December threat (back when it looked snowy). That is something to keep an eye on the next few days. I am still trying to figure out how the Popes anger correlates with our snow chances, but considering that he’s been fairly tame while we roasted the past month and a half I’m thinking it’s a good sign. My theory is as our snow chances increase, the Popes hostility also increases.

Yeah the reason why I haven’t been posting nearly as much since mid Jan or so here is I didn’t really see anything I liked on the models for big snow potential in SNE. The late Feb threat looks like it has some potential but I’m skeptical. I don’t think the longwave pattern supports a storm that is all that strong, the pattern looks zonal and progressive. If things break right it’s possible things work out but the way this winter has gone I’m at the point where I need to see it to believe it.

Too early to know what will happen in March. We need to figure out if all that cold from the SSW comes down, or if it stays up in the stratosphere. In March 2018, it came down but took a few weeks. You said this one isn’t expected to come down, but if it does come down there is a lag so that’s expected. There is no way to know whether or not it will come down this far out so the outlook for March should be taken with a grain of salt. If the cold air doesn’t come down, it will likely be well above normal temps like it’s been all winter. If it does come down, it will likely be much colder and snowier than the weeklies are saying. An ensemble doesn’t really tell the story for this one since the projected 500 mb pattern is a mean, where as the reality is likely to be one of the outlier solutions. Just to be clear, I’m not saying this means snow. It very well could be the warmest ensemble members that have the right idea which means game over. The point I’m making is that IF things break right, it’s not “too late” or any of that nonsense. If you want to argue that the probability things break right is very low, fair enough. But on this subforum we don’t give a flying fuck about average temps in Philly, that’s basically the tropics. In the mid March blizzard of 2018, Philly got RAIN while in New England it was a burial.

There isn’t anything wrong with liking warmer weather and being excited about the mild and snowless winter we are having. Torch Tiger, Snowman19, and qqomega all like warmer weather and so they post about it. I love the cold and snow but it’s important to recognize that not everyone likes the same type of weather, and it’s not just a snow board.

I figured you would be really happy with how this “winter” has turned out since you like warmer weather.

Hell an argument could be made that we are better off punting next winter with a stronger nino since it would reshuffle the pattern. The warm pool out west has been linked to the stubborn western trough pattern we are in right now.

Ninas aren’t bad in New England, this winter sucked but statistically moderate nino and strong nino are the 2 worst enso states for SNE snowfall.

How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino.

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

Weak Ninos are good, too strong and it’s congrats DC.

We are due for a huge winter. Post 2015 has been really shitty for the most part with only a couple good years. The warm waters being displaced to the west is a good sign. If that comes up, we will have a west based El Niño. Man, it really looked like this was going to be a big one with all that blocking in early December on the models. I don’t know what happened.

I get what you are saying, and yes I am kind of grasping at straws with the SSW stuff but just because the odds aren’t in our favor doesn’t mean I’m going to stop tracking. You are wrong about March though, it is possible to build a pack in March. Look at March 2018, we got buried and held on to a pack for a couple of weeks. If it doesn’t snow here, it doesn’t snow. There is nothing I can do about it besides moving north like you said. I’ll be happy to track rainstorms if we keep getting them, because they are fun to track as well. Also not everyone here likes snow, Torch Tiger, snowman19, and qqomega like warmer weather.

You excited about the weather the next week or 2? A run at 70 isn’t out of the question, might be able to get some golfing in.