George001
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Everything posted by George001
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You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup.
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It nailed the last event where inland areas got buried, but typically it has a SE bias. It’s usually not correct, but a good rule of thumb is when the Navy is more amped than other guidance, it’s a big red flag. It’s basically the opposite of the Canadian (amped bias).
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Big runs tonight. Gfs is close to something big which is good, but I would like the Canadian and Euro to jump on board. Also can’t afford to lose the Navy
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It’s not over yet, but we can’t afford any more steps back if we want the 20th threat to become a big one.
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It has a higher verification score than the gfs -
Yeah it can snow a hell of a lot in 12-18 hours
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The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted.
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Good NW lean, though I would like to see more 980s and 970s on future runs.
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Yep, seeing it offshore 4 days out was a good thing for this setup. Can’t be living and dying by every run. North trend isn’t done either
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Hopefully that changes and the models are underestimating the amplitude of the ridge.
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Eh, I would give this winter an F- grade so far because it’s been so warm. Fortunately it looks like the pattern is going to be changing for the better. To get above a D, we need at least a solid month straight of snowcover.
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Yeah it’s too early to give up
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Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….
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Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to negative posts about the pattern when it’s justified. I was bitching a lot about the pattern myself in December, but we have cold air now and something to track. The way I see is get the cold first, and usually snow will follow. This is a much higher probability event than having to rely on dynamic cooling and storms to create their own cold air.
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This event went to shit? It’s still 4 days out…. Models do this every storm, if anything you want to be a bit SE of the heaviest snows in guidance this far out.
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We’ve seen storms move hundreds of miles NW inside of 2 days, never mind 4. The models always go back and forth, it was NW, now it’s SE, and it will probably go back NW. Will it go back to the full blown blizzard we saw a couple days ago on that gfs run? Doubt it, but it’s really not far from being a solid moderate event. I’d rather be on the southern edge rooting for a storm to come north than the other way around.
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Not buying it. It will come back north.
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I don’t buy the OTS solutions at all. This is going to trend hundreds of miles north over the next couple of days. I’ve been saying it, look at how far west the western ridge axis is.
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The 16-17th has 6-12 potential, a solid moderate event. However, this threat is a lot bigger.
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Euro is way north this run, still out to sea but it’s very close.
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Agree, it will come north.
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You buy the gfs solution?
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Interesting low location
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Yeah, the Canadian actually has so much cold air that it snows EAST of the low hour 180. The low rams into SNE and it still gives my area blizzard conditions. I’ve never seen snow so close to the low like that before.
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That’s going to be a nuke
