George001

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

I’m hoping for a 2002-2003 outcome. Not interested in a mid Atlantic winter like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. This run looks decent though, getting the precip up into SNE.

ONI isn’t the only relevant index to be fair, MEI is also useful as well. However, nino strong enough to get to a super peak of +2.2 is going to have a really high MEO, RONI, whatever index you want to use value as well. Regardless, it doesn’t really make sense to favor a cold and snowy winter in the east with a nino this strong.

Im not expecting this to happen, but you know what would be funny? If we do end up getting a super nino, but somehow get a big winter anyways. That would break the brains of a lot of posters on this board, including myself.

Yeah isn’t worrying about whether the enso Will couple or not usually only a factor in weak events? If so we wouldn’t need to worry about that since we will get a super nino.

Most recent tri monthly value of .8 is in line with the how the 1965-1966 El Niño evolved. That El Niño grew into a super nino, peaking at 2.0 ONI in November/December. Based on the most recent data, I am changing my prediction from a strong nino (1.8 ONI) to roughly 2.2 ONI (super nino).

Strongly agree, I would rather not see DC, Philly, and NYC get buried while we get skunked.

I would have expected the warmth to be much more widespread with El Niño growing that strong.

Anyways, back to the El Niño it looks like it is on track to become a strong event by the fall. The models are starting to come to a consensus, the Australian cooled off while the CFS warmed up.

All depends on where you live. My area in New England statistically does the worst in super ninos and second worst in strong ninos (especially non modokis) so I am expecting this upcoming winter to be a fairly benign winter here, like last year (not quite that extreme, but nevertheless below normal snow and above normal temps). Ninas following ninos are often really damn good in SNE, 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are good examples. If we do get a Nina, I would think it would be a fairly strong one since this El Niño is going to be quite strong. If you are right and we go from super nino to strong Nina, the mid Atlantic will likely do better relative to average this winter than the next so I would expect most mid Atlantic folks would prefer this winter. I would expect my area to do well during the strong Nina and poorly this winter. In fact, the progression you are describing is very similar to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011. This nino will likely be stronger than that one, but regardless that went from strong nino after a multi year Nina to a very strong La Niña in 2010-2011.

I don’t think that is likely being 2 years removed from 3 consecutive La Ninas. A second year nino is more likely, especially if this nino doesn’t become a super event. I think something like this is more likely: year 1- strong east based El Niño (EP) year 2- central based weak El Niño (CP) year 3- strong La Niña

Dynamical guidance is up to a peak ONI of 1.81, not backing down at all. Whether it’s high end strong or low end super, either way it’s going to be a big one.

All that red on the map makes me want to vomit

That is very possible. The next IRI update will be very telling. The nino hasn’t been strengthening much in the Enso 3.4 region in July like some of the guidance had, but it has been strengthening in the enso 3 and 1.2 region. Could be a delayed but not denied thing when it comes to significant 3.4 strengthening.

I believe this event will peak earlier, in October. I do agree with you that we will be in a strong El Niño by fall though, I’m just not sold on additional strengthening into December. My thinking is a peak of around +1.8, so high end strong, but I’m becoming more open to the idea of a low end super nino. Either way, El Niño will be a significant pattern driver during the winter. That said, we are getting to the point where a moderate peak is becoming increasingly unlikely. Paul Roundy has been saying that the warmth in enso 3 and 1.2 will build west, which will strengthen the El Niño further. Considering the nino is already borderline moderate by ONI it’s safe to say that this El Niño will NOT be weak.

I agree. I know there is a lot of hype about every enso event, but I am a strong believer in this El Niño. I think it will continue to grow, the question is will it peak in October or later (November/December). If it keeps growing until December I think we will see a peak of around +2.0-2.2, if it stops growing in October +1.4-1.6 makes sense. The models disagree right now but either way I think a strong El Niño is a good bet.

Yeah I don’t like how strong and how east based this El Niño is. Statistically strong El Niños are the second worst enso state for the Boston area snowfall wise, with the worst being super. This doesn’t take structure into account so it’s not good to take it as gospel, but when we have a strong or super nino AND the structure is unfavorable, that’s not good no matter how you look at it. As big of a weenie as I am, even I’m concerned.

A lot of posters are interested in the implications that El Niño will have on winter, myself included. That said, yeah these models should be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn’t say it’s wishcasting though, looking at the temp and precip anomalies the latest cansips is slightly above normal temps and normal precip looking at the DJF average. That would imply a below average-average winter in terms of snowfall, a far cry from many of Bastardis analogs (2002-2003, 2009-2010 for the mid Atlantic, etc). Either way, It’s going to look completely different next run. In my opinion those maps are meaningless unless it’s for the next month, and even that can be way off sometimes. Anyways, back to the developing El Niño, this is going to be a big month for narrowing the goalposts. If Paul Roundy is right, we will see significant warming this month and the nino will get to strong levels. If that happens, a super nino peak becomes much more likely. If the weaker models (ignoring the statistical models forecasting a weak nino, neutral or La Niña, it’s obvious those will be wrong based on the rapid warming in June) like the CFS are right, we could be looking at a moderate peak instead. My gut feeling right now is what will end up happening is somewhere in the middle, but closer to the high end outcome. Something like a +1.7-1.9 ONI peak, not quite super but still a high end strong event. Statistically, when we got this warm by June after coming off a La Niña, those El Niños ended up being quite powerful, with many strong and super ninos in the mix.

The bottom was the forecast for last years winter in June 2022, the top image is the forecast for the 2023-2024 winter.

Im concerned about the -PDO strong nino combination. 1972-1973 is considered an analog by experts like Raindance, which was somehow an even less snowy winter than last “winter”. Strong ninos aren’t favorable for my area historically, I’d be more excited if I lived NYC south. Even if the +3 that the Australian model is forecasting is bullshit (it is), even a +2 peak could be enough to torch our winter. Due to these factors I’m setting my expectations low, but if come November the Nino is something like +1.2-1.6 and is basin wide or west leaning I’ll become more optimistic. Not delusional like I was the past few years, just bumping up my expectations from ratter-below average to average-slightly above average.

Yeah I’m not buying the super nino talk, but that is exactly why I have low expectations for this coming winter. Even strong ninos arent very good for New England. I would be more excited if I lived in the mid Atlantic.

I read somewhere that one of the impacts of climate change is that more strong and super enso events are expected.

True. I am concerned that we are getting El Niño conditions this early, but even if it’s 2016 2.0 that was a way better winter than last. That was a regular mild below average snow winter, nothing crazy. Last winter was truly historic, one of the least snowy winters on record and one of the warmest winters on record.

I don’t like it, but I agree. My gut feeling is this will be an unfavorable nino for east coast snow weenies, whether it gets to super or not. I just don’t think Paul Roundy should be ignored, he is great and has been right about this El Niño event so far. He said it was going to be a big one that was building from east to west even when the models were saying weak nino. I was in denial, argued with you that the -PDO wouldn’t allow it to happen, etc. Well, a few months later and what happens? The models are now forecasting a strong nino, and the nino is indeed building from east to west! We are coming off a 3 year Nina, and it’s only June and we are already experiencing El Niño conditions. I’m starting to think moderate is off the table too and that the question is do we get a strong or super nino (I’m leaning strong, but low end super is becoming more realistic).

I’m keeping my expectations for this winter low with a big nino expected. I’m not going to let myself get sucked into the hype like I did the past few years. After the non winter we just had, give me an average winter and I’ll be happy with it. Nothing wrong with one big one, a couple cold stretches and a couple smaller storms.