George001

That makes sense. It’s not about the ACE index in itself, it’s about how you get there and the pattern in place that facilitated those high ACE totals. This is where my approach falls short, relying heavily on statistics to try to make sense of things is helpful, but just knowing a correlation exists and how strong it isn’t everything. The WHY is just as if not more important. That’s why I’m glad we have this board, there is so much useful information here that helps amateurs like myself fill those gaps. That has me thinking, although there is nothing out of the ordinary about the raw ACE numbers this year, how we got there is somewhat unusual. The hurricane season peak this year has been quite a bit later than usual, it may or may not mean anything, not too sure but it’s definitely an interesting observation.

I have seen some evidence for a weak to moderate positive correlation between solar and the NAO (both on this board and outside). However, I haven’t seen anything indicating the r^2 value for the correlation between sunspots and NAO is greater than 0.7, though I am open to being proven wrong on that. Regardless, you are correct that sunspots and solar activity aren’t the only +NAO indicators this year. I wasn’t aware of how strong the correlation between geomag and NAO was so I dug into it some. Apparently the correlation between high geomag and +NAO is 0.76 between 1962-1994, which is strong. Thats a good 32 years of data too. That is a great point you brought up about the strong correlation between high geomag activity and +NAO.

Just my opinion but I wouldn’t be worried where you live. Long Island in particular does better in miller bs (common in Nina’s) than even NYC, and you do significantly better than say Philly, DC, etc. Hell, even the whole solar = +NAO thing isn’t a given. I read the papers, all the meteorology shit goes over my head but the one thing I did get out of it is the correlation coefficient is highest in Feb, and even then the correlation is moderate at best. I would lean +NAO, but I just don’t think the correlation is strong enough to justify ignoring certain analogs due to solar. Also, the NAO itself has a weak correlation to temps above a certain latitude (I believe it was an r^2 value of .2 for me and .3 for you, I’ll have to go back and check though). The thing I care about the most is the fall pattern leading up to winter. It is a lot different than the past 2 years as we do not have a parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest. That’s part of the reason I was so bearish last winter (forecasted 20-30 inches of snow in the Boston area, and this turned out to be way too optimistic). We aren’t seeing that this year, and frankly that’s the big concern with strong -PDO Nina patterns. I get the pessimism, I really do. I agree with the pessimism south of say NYC because the farther south you go, the more hostile +NAO patterns are (although far from a guarantee, a positive NAO should be favored over a negative one). Also, snow wise areas farther south are more likely to get screwed in bigger storms during La Nina’s. Those areas do better in a strong STJ El Niño pattern. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that have absolutely nothing to do with ACE.

Bluewave is in fact correct about ACE not having much of a relationship to the winter pattern. I dug through some of Raindances old posts, and the correlation coefficient is only around .1 in Boston for ACE and snow in La Nina’s. It is slightly higher for NYC and Philly (roughly .23 in NYC and .21 in Philly), but that is still considered weak.

seasonal ACE is now up to 130 thanks to hurricane Milton going nuclear and deepening significantly more than expected by the models. Milton has already produced nearly 20 ACE, and we may be looking at an ACE of 135-140 once Milton falls apart. On average we see around 20 ACE after today, which means we are looking at potentially a 150+ ACE season despite just a couple weeks ago the hurricane season looking like a complete bust. Things can change fast in weather, something worth keeping in mind during the winter as well if things start slowly.

Damn looks like 120-130 is going to be too conservative. Hurricane Milton deepening significantly more than expected made a big difference, the ACE is already up to 120 now.

I don’t even think the most aggressive hurricane models had the low in the 920s by now

I don’t get it. There is nothing weak about this storm. I am very skeptical of the models that have it landfalling in the 960s given how much they underestimated the strength of the low so far and the initialization errors.

ACE forecasts for the year? The strength of the low in the gulf increased rapidly across all guidance over the past couple of days. I think 125-150. Probably closer to 125, it would take a really big late season storm to get up to 150. Got there in an unusual way, but average to slightly above average ACE overall. I think the increase in strength for that gulf low killed the possibility of a below average ACE season.

Old school meteorology approach. I like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? Last winter I saw articles about flooding out west, areas like Seattle were getting hammered. That really raised my alarms that last winter was going to be a rough one. The parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest continued all winter long which was extremely unfavorable for the east coast. The previous winter had the same thing in the fall and I ignored it, and learned the hard way I shouldn’t have. Often the pattern in the fall is a sign of things to some. Storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest is just bad news. This year we aren’t really seeing that. But it has been fairly dry. You mentioned earlier that this may be a dry winter like 2001-2002, a year mentioned as a decent analog several times in this thread.

I don’t buy it either. Interestingly, despite the lack of La Niña on the Euro the 500mb is very much a La Nina pattern. Ridging south of Alaska (usually a trough here in Ninos) and some SE ridging. Probably a fairly active northern branch too. The big question is how far south does the northern branch dip? It’s not a bad pattern for my area verbatim, though definitely playing with fire in regards to that SE ridging especially early winter. Mid Atlantic weenies would like to see more North Atlantic blocking, not really seeing that on the Euro. Although I am skeptical of the lack of La Niña on the Euro, 500mb pattern showed makes sense. I suspect it has the right idea to some extent there.

AGW has definitely progressed since then and is accelerating, but this is a good point. Even in the 2014-2015 winter, the large scale picture was a cold pocket right over the eastern U.S. in a sea of warmth. The climate was warmer in 2014-2015 than the early 2000s, and the climate today is warmer than 2014-2015. I do agree that your area is much better off than areas closer to the coast like mine with the changing climate. Close proximity to the rapidly warming Atlantic Ocean gives us less room for error in terms of storm track, and I suspect that has something to do with December climo worsening faster than other months like March locally. December is the winter month with the warmest average ocean temps, so it makes sense that December is closer to a “tipping point” than March here. You have much more room for error in MI, farther away from the ocean and much colder/snowier climo to begin with.

Looks like things are on track for an official La Niña by ONI (likely high end weak). The development of this Nina has been impressive over the past few weeks.

I know there is a lot of pessimism surrounding this winter, but I am a lot more optimistic than last year. Do I think it will be epic like 2014-2015 or 2010-2011? No I don’t, but the fall pattern so far has been somewhat different than the past 2 years (not seeing a parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest) which I believe does matter. I never liked last winter, but im actually kind of excited about this one.

One thing I am interested in is the prospect of more miller bs this winter. With the active northern branch combined with the very warm SSTs off the coast I think we will see some big storms. The big question is the temp profile, seasonal guidance right now has a very Nina like BN north AN south like 2022-2023, but guidance does have the cold bleeding somewhat farther south than that year. Still too early to really mean much, but it’s worth watching if that holds up by November.

That was a great storm for my area still, but definitely left some on the table because of this. Most of the truly high end events are miller bs for a reason, I would rather have the low bombing out right under us than way south. Regardless, 14-15 inches is still a really good storm, I would gladly take another event like that after the past 2 years.

2 lows

Yep. The best way to do this is to go in with no expectations about the winter, and try to be as objective as possible. It’s really not easy to do so unfortunately. I’m not very good at it myself, it’s hard to not be biased when you heavily prefer a certain type of weather. Both 10-11 and 22-23 have value as analogs, but opposite winter outcomes. I’m not convinced the outcome of the winter matters when assessing analog validity. There is just too much randomness (luck) involved in individual outcomes to be able to properly evaluate whether a winter succeeded/failed due to just a couple lucky/unlucky breaks or the large scale pattern being a certain way. Also, some of the things being touted as a strong signal for a bad winter (+NAO) vs good winter (-NAO) are overstated especially for more northern posters. The nao r^2 correlation to temps for my area for example is -.2, which is very weak. Can’t just say it will be a +NAO or -NAO and draw all kinds of conclusions about what the winter will or will not look like based on that.

Yeah I wouldn’t choose any of those as my top analogs either, but I do think there is an important distinction to make. I don’t think there is anything terribly wrong with 13-14, 20-21 and 10-11. I wouldn’t weigh them as heavily as 2022-2023 and 2007-2008, but I do think they have some value as analogs. 95-96, 17-18 and 83-84 absolutely not. If anything, 95-96, 17-18 and 83-84 are such horrible analogs they may have more utility than the first 3 years by including them but as anti logs. Especially 95-96, that was a raging +PDO and east based Nina and I’m pretty sure solar is also opposite to this year. I don’t even think Joe Bastardi is using 95-96 as an analog.

Completely agree with all of this. You can nitpick any analog, but dismissing the bigger picture because a couple minor details don’t match would be a mistake. Yeah the ACE might be a bit higher and we are coming off a strong Nino instead of a moderate Nina, but I don’t see that as a good reason to discount 2022-2023. It’s an excellent match for ENSO strength, warm Atlantic, ENSO structure, and the strong -PDO. Another big factor that 2022-2023 has going for it is climate change (2022-2023 was only 2 years ago, so a more similar climate to today than older analogs). Thats not something that should be ignored just because a couple other things don’t line up.

In my opinion 90 is too low, I’m thinking around 120-130. I could be wrong though, I expected 200+ ACE before the season started and that clearly isn’t going to happen. You had the right idea, good call with the skepticism of a hyperactive season. The gfs is fairly aggressive but like you and Raindance said, fairly big hole to climb out of.

I have 2022-2023 as my #1 analog right now mainly due to the extreme -PDO, solar, and I like the ENSO match for both strength and structure (moderate modoki). However, I do agree that 07-08 is also a good analog (my #2 annalog) and that the Atlantic hurricane season is closer to 07-08 than 22-23. It’s too early to make a forecast but I’m definitely going to heavily weight both of those years and do a blend of some sort with other years that I like.

I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question.

I’m not sure if the uptick in hurricane activity is related to this or not, but La Niña development has taken off recently. The La Niña is also becoming more central based with significant cooling in the ENSO 3.4 region. ENSO 4 has been cooling as well, I am starting to think a modoki is possible (which is why 22-23 looks like a pretty good analog right now).

The hurricane season was written off too early, we just had a category 4 landfall in Florida and there is another one on its heels on the gfs. Will it be a 200+ ACE season like many initially thought? Probably too late for that, but 150 is very possible as a high end outcome if the gfs has the right idea (although I do think it will be less than that because the other guidance is less aggressive). I do not think this will be a severe hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean it will be a low ACE year either. It’s probably going to end up somewhere around average to a bit above.