George001

The polar vortex is extremely strong and is expected to deepen again, yet the pattern looks great on the models. Looking at this I would think 2011-2012, but that clearly isn’t the case. What’s going on here? I read that although the polar vortex is strong, it isn’t super consolidated, had a minor disruption already, and is expected to have another mid month. Or is it more that the pattern is being driven by other factors like the pacific and MJO? Maybe instead of an extended duration episode of North Atlantic blocking we score via a great pacific and overall positive NAO, but transient periods of blocking?

There has been an increase in strength with the La Niña over the past month, enough to be considered a moderate La Niña at -1.0 Celsius on the ONI trimonthly scale. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

*blizzards

If there is any pattern to deliver multiple blizzards to the area, it’s this one.

Need to see more support from the big 3 (European, Canadian, Navy). The Navy isn’t in range yet, I could extrapolate it though. Canadian I’d like to see jump on board.

The european guidance had a 985 mb low offshore at 216 hours out. Miller B?

It’s not on the OP runs yet but the European and Canadian ensembles show what looks like a Miller B around the 16th. The upcoming pattern is looking great, but I’m rooting for Miller Bs instead of Miller As. Miller As can be nice, but it seems like most of our big storms (12+) are Miller Bs.

Ended up with 13-14 inches here, double what was forecasted last night.

This is a fail, should have stuck to my guns.

Snowiest January since 2018, and the great pattern is just getting started based on the long range guidance. This is why its good to let the winter develop and give it a chance before writing it off. When I made that panic room threat things looked bad, but I jumped the gun there.

Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range.

Thanks, It sure did! I’ve had a lot of busts (like last Monday) so its nice to be right about one.

Looks like snow ratios were big in this storm, the QPF total was what the higher end of what guidance had (like eduggs said above) but the ratios were like 20:1 instead of 10:1, so those 10:1 snow maps ended up being an epic fail.

I don’t know if it means anything now, but the La Niña trending towards being more and more east based could be really good for later in the winter. The pattern looks to be really good for the rest of Jan on the long range models, could the East based nature of the Nina help us in Feb and March?

I’m eyeballing 12-13 inches, what a storm!

The latest hrrr has about 4-6 more inches of 10:1 ratio snow in eastern mass (in the heavy bands there are reports of 20:1+ ratios) it started running this hour, so that’s on top of what has already fallen. The funny thing is, the QPF output is actually HIGHER now than it was for the entire storm on some of the weaker runs last night.

Thanks lol I’m already at around 10 inches and it’s still puking snow. What a storm!

My forecast might have been too conservative for once

He gonna wake up a very happy weenie like I did.

I’m eyeballing 6-7 inches…. holy shit

The latest hrrr has .6-.7 more QPF for eastern mass, that’s on top of the snow that has already fallen. Ratios have reportedly been as high as 15:1 or 20:1, so extrapolating that for my area we would have 9-14 more inches on top of the 4 or so inches we already had (last I checked). That would result in a 13-18 inch storm total if correct.

Did the strength of the low increase more than expected?

Foxborough area

Holy shit

The HRRR runs that only gave my area 4-5 inches of snow last night are going to be WRONG! I’m getting BURIED!!! Gotta be at least 3-4 inches already and massive flakes. The TV mets were saying when we wake up at sunrise there wouldn’t be a ton of snow on the ground. Am I going to get over a foot?