TimB

I think if everything goes right our ceiling is probably about 1.5” or so. But of course it doesn’t always go right. I think we could pick up an inch as our last addition to the snowpack before the first short-lived taste of spring arrives midweek. I like the GFS’s thinking on the pattern after that, but that may be the cold bias again.

It very much is. In any event, KPIT is sitting at 3 at this moment, which ends the streak of not dropping below 5.

I agree that the lack of warmth is also anomalous, and having only 8 other such seasons proves that (but also proves it has occurred before). Days with highs in the teens and nights with lows of 5 or below occur in as many winters as highs in the 60s do, and it is not only anomalous, but in fact unprecedented to go two consecutive winters without those occurring (though I think it’s at least in the realm of possibility for KPIT to drop to 5 tonight). I don’t think it’s odd to notice something that has occurred as many times in Pittsburgh’s history as a high of 104 or a low of -23.

It really has been a fantastic winter when you take a step back and think about it. Especially when you compare it to the past couple. It’s been a long time since we had weeks of snow cover like this. Yeah, with the temperature having reached 21 so far today, we’re going to shatter our record for consecutive days with highs above 20 (it’s never happened in consecutive winters) barring an anomalous cold snap after we flip to March, but this winter has looked and felt like winter for the vast majority of the season.

The Pittsburgh NWS must have heard us complaining about their forecast discussions, the ones yesterday afternoon and this morning seem to be up to standard.

The streak likely ends tomorrow, but today will officially be the 17th straight day with at least a trace of snowfall at the airport.

Completely agree. Of course we’d like to think it wouldn’t happen here, and maybe it wouldn’t, because we have better infrastructure, are better prepared for it, and live in a cold climate so we’re used to crippling snowstorms and severe cold, but then again of course it could. What they got was their equivalent of the Blizzard of ‘93 and the cold snap of January 1994 all at the same time.

Record for below freezing is 33 days, if that gives you an idea. Today is the 36th day in a row with a low below freezing. I’m sure there have been much longer periods than that, but it’s probably uncommon. And at this point, it looks like we won’t hit 50 until at least Wednesday. That would at least tie us for the second longest such streak to start a year in the KPIT era. And apparently, according to the chart below, 1978 is the only year in recorded history that we made it beyond 2/24 without hitting 50 degrees. Isn’t there somewhere you can run neat little charts for things like that? Found it. Record is 51 days without reaching 40. We would be tied for 13th if we get to 26. As expected, 1977, 1978, and 1979 are all over these lists, haha. Edit: almost forgot one. We are now in first place for consecutive days not dropping below 8 degrees. Sunday morning is probably our last shot at not adding 300+ days to that total.

I’d be surprised if we get 3”, but I’d take 1-2, which most models seem to give us. Really depends on when the precip falls. If the bulk of it is before 12z, I’d bet on more snow than rain.

NAM makes Monday look mildly interesting. Very quick hitter but 3”.

Euro gives us mostly rain, GFS brings a snowstorm of epic proportions through central NC and gives us nothing, and the Para gives the aforementioned blast of snow to MD/VA. In other words, the models have picked up this storm and there’s still a ton of time to either cash in or not.

The threshold for “this storm didn’t suck” was admittedly set incredibly low at this point, but I think we managed to not even meet that threshold.

All I ask is that if it’s not going to happen, the models pick up on it no later than Sunday so as not to get our hopes up and crush us.

It’s always a curse when the models agree and tease us with a D9 storm like they did with this one. Hopefully they don’t do that again. Oh wait...

That’s a tough ask, depends on which model is closer on the extent of warmth later next week. GFS keeps us not terribly far above freezing but the Euro sends our temps soaring. Maybe the snowpack will slow that down too, though.

Believe it or not, that’s the only time this century and only the second time since the big one that we’ve gotten 6” of snow on a single calendar day in March (3/21/18).

I hope it’s not a third straight year with less than 1.5” of total snowfall beyond March 3rd, but as long as spring is seasonable and not the kind of year where you have to turn the a/c on well before Memorial Day, I can live with that.

This. It’s essentially April, except sometimes instead of getting 1-2” inches of snow overnight that melts before noon the next day, you can sometimes get 4-8” of snow that melts before noon (think 2018).

Ah, that’s where I was mistaken. Somewhere along the line I believed 3” was an advisory here. And no, I don’t have confidence that any part of Allegheny County gets 4”. I think it’s possible in some SE areas of the county, but not with any confidence. Maybe I’m getting confused because my mind’s current threshold between “this storm sucked” and “this storm didn’t suck” is at about 3”.

So the NWS thinks most of Allegheny County gets 3-4” of snow (so low end advisory level), but isn’t confident enough to issue an advisory. That doesn’t bode well.

I would say I went to bed last night thinking there was a very real possibility if not likelihood that yesterday would officially be the snowiest day of this week. It’s still a possibility, but a lot less likely. Edit: this was before I saw the 12z Euro.

If you told me last night our eventual total would be 1” or less, I would have agreed. I’m not so sure I do now. It’s definitely not a warning level event but it’s probably at least borderline advisory, especially if the highest rates are centered around a rush hour. This goes back to the NWS’s idea of “how do we message this so as not to confuse the general public?” that we’ve been talking about all week. Because the general public, especially in Pittsburgh sees “2-3 inches” and thinks, “that’s nothing, it might be a minor inconvenience to me but not much more, and besides, the NWS was badly wrong last time,” whereas if they see “2-3 inches with the heaviest rates centered around the evening rush” (though I don’t think that’s when we get the best rates, even if that’s what NWS implies), then a little more caution is involved. Because we know that a quick 2-3 inches at rush hour will cripple the evening commute around here.

GFS has stopped the bleeding with the SE shift, which is good. NWS still wants to keep the “heavy at times” wording in for both tomorrow and tomorrow night in our area, despite forecasting only 2-3 inches of snow.

Seems that way. This winter helped me forget this is the way it almost always works in Pittsburgh, so I wasn’t as prepared as I would normally be for the models completely falling apart with a drastic last minute NW shift, then two days later completely falling apart with a drastic last minute SE shift. It’ll be interesting to see what today’s final snow total is at the airport. Today could be the snowiest day of the week when it’s all said and done.

At this point, if I were a betting man, I’d bet against advisory level snowfall. Not saying I’d bet against snowfall at all (yet).