TimB

I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month).

And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal.

My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record.

I like your optimism. I could even live with 47 on Tuesday if it’s followed by -15 by Saturday.

I would say more likely denied than delayed, as that’s what almost always happens in Pittsburgh. I firmly believe we’ll never see another subzero temperature here, or another February that averages below the calculated normals.

Yes, drives a low from the MO/AR/TN border to Lake Erie, which would put us firmly in the warm sector.

Is this level of model spread typical of Arctic outbreaks in this region?

Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?!