TimB

Those summertime highs are an interesting trend for sure. It’s a lot more intricate than the fact that we’re getting warmer overall. I wasn’t alive in 1977 but I don’t question it because it was taken at the same site and probably with similar methods to observations taken today. I’m not sure of the official position of the NWS or others who study meteorology for a living on the older data or its accuracy, but I do know this. People on both sides of the aisle have politicized the non-political, scientific issue of climate change. As a result, even if the NWS did a quality control study and determined that the old data to be inaccurate, and put an asterisk next to it in the records, there would be an uproar about “artificially manufacturing or overstating climate change” or even “trying to rewrite history,” even if their reasons for doing so were legitimate. Therefore, the older data is here to stay. With that being said, we’re all free to use whatever data we want to come to whatever conclusion we like. I just choose to only use data from 1948 on because they’re the only numbers that I feel can give me an accurate comparison.

It’s an interesting discussion, to be sure. But the only way to discuss the warmth of the past few years is to compare it to data where it can be compared apples to apples, which unfortunately only goes back to 1948. And 8 months now have recorded a higher average at some point last decade than they ever did in the 60+ years preceding that. In addition to the site where the measurements were taken, I’m going to take an educated guess that there are differences in how they were taken (technology, methods, etc.). Just as an example, I can’t be the only one who thinks that the 77.2 average for September 1881, five degrees higher than any other September, is more than a little suspect. As such, I can’t compare records set in 1881 to observations taken today. Not sure if folks are generally in agreement with this or not.

But 6z GFS comes into agreement with 0z Euro that the Tuesday storm will be mostly rain/ice with very little snow. Hopefully the cold air can stand its ground.

July 2020 was the hottest July and second hottest month (just behind Aug. 1995) ever recorded in Pittsburgh since observations moved to Pittsburgh International in 1948. Feb. 2017 and 2018 are the two hottest Februarys ever recorded at Pittsburgh International. March 2012. April 2017. May 2018. Sept. 2018 and 2015. Nov. 2015. Dec. 2015. All hottest of said month ever recorded at Pgh International. In other words, in 73 years of records being kept at PIT, eight of the twelve months of the year have been the hottest on record in just 9 years.

In winter, yes, absolutely 100% correct. And I also fully agree that we have had a fantastic winter compared to the last five or so. I suppose my comments regarding periods of anomalous cold being exceedingly rare these days are not directed specifically to winter but rather to any time of the year. For example, we are currently at 8 consecutive months of above normal temperatures at PIT (which wouldn’t be alarming on its own, other than the fact that it’s part of a trend which includes a period of 18 consecutive months within the past few years). When was the last time we had even four consecutive below normal months? But that’s another topic for another day, as it distracts from the matter at hand, which is seeing just how high our snow total for this winter can go.

We have some model agreement! (Though the GFS is almost certainly too cold with that system, QPF looks good for our area on both models).

I fully agree with that. A few good snowfalls will do a lot to boost my spirits. I think it’s really just that unseasonably cold periods are fewer and farther between than they used to be in this warming world (and I don’t say that in a partisan way, as climate change is not a political concept, it’s a scientific one), so it excites me when such anomalous cold is hinted at by the models. With that being said, I think we probably end up in the low single digits either above or below zero Monday morning, which is just fine and dandy with me.

Yes, this is a reversal from yesterday. The 0z Euro yesterday had us at -18 Monday morning while the GFS had us at +12. Now the GFS has us at -13 and the Euro has us at +4. The biggest problem I see is that the GFS is taking us to -13 almost entirely on CAA, with clouds sticking around that whole night. Regardless, that is the only morning that has a chance at bottoming out below zero in this pattern. The models have been out of phase all month, save for maybe that time early last week they both agreed we’d be bottoming out around -10 yesterday, today, and tomorrow, and both were of course wrong.

NWS forecasting 2-4 inches in Allegheny County from the Wed-Fri event. Also, even if you take out the Blizzard of ‘93, that winter got about 29 inches from Feb. 10th on. That would put us very close to ‘09-10 for #3.

The Arctic high seems to squash our storm track in that solution. Still a lot of time for that to resolve. Of course, the first step is that the storm has to exist, even if it’s currently depicted as spreading a wintry mix across NC/SC.

Looks like it could still give us a few inches of snow, and pours in the bitter cold behind it just like the Euro. Bottom line seems to be we’re still very much in the game for a subzero night this winter.

The whitest Christmas ever, in fact!

Indeed, it’s not reasonable to expect a storm of that magnitude, but at this point, even something like the President’s Day 2003 storm would at least make it not crazy to start thinking about catching some of those epic years.

Also: our season-to-date total through today’s date in 1993 was 19.3 inches.

Those early rates were truly impressive. Slept a lot better knowing based on early indications that we would wake up to the 5” the NWS predicted. Looking ahead: the GFS warm-sectors us to death with its Sunday storm and the Euro still doesn’t really give us anything there, but its depiction of the Tues-Wed system is looking pretty fun. GFS slides it south of our area but at least carries a decent system somewhere.

One quick aside to that: Despite that winter, and the following winter being brutally cold, we hit 50 five times through today’s date in 2014 and four times through today’s date in 2015. Anyway, if the GFS and/or Euro somehow verify, there’s a solid shot at being in the 65+ inch range for the season by the end of February.

Just think of the snow ratios in that depiction... I’ll take the GFS’s depiction of that system and the Euro’s depiction of the magnitude of cold air behind it, please.

Oh boy, the 12Z GFS run of that Sunday storm would be a dream!

Upstream advisories continue that thin strip through southern IL, IN, and OH. Of course, their criteria are lower.

I recognize that it’s truly irrational of me to enjoy seeing remarkable weather like a nice brutal cold snap - it’s certainly not comfortable, my house has plumbing that doesn’t enjoy it, and of course a few people die during periods of extreme weather. I also recognize that the 50 degree thing is remarkable in and of itself, on Thursday it will make it into the top 3 all time at Pgh International to begin a calendar year.

Valid point. Can’t have it all, and it’s nice to be worried about “how much snow?” and “how much cold?” rather than “will it ever snow?” or “will it ever get cold?” or “how many February days will hit 76 degrees or more this year?” At the end of the day, while we likely won’t hit -10 or 75 this month, one is certainly exponentially more likely than the other. Side note: after all this time I’ve spent bashing the GFS, the Euro is now showing us as almost the coldest spot in the lower 48 next week at this time.

I’m as much a fan of cold as I am as a fan of snow, which is to say a pretty big fan. These seemingly endless streaks of above normal months that have become so common, especially in the past five years, are exhausting.

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

Snow totals seem to be steady or slightly down from prior run. GFS is actually showing a low 11 for the same time period where the Euro is -4, but the GFS brings similar cold Monday morning so it’s still a possibility.

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.