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TimB

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  1. TimB
    GFS has stopped the bleeding with the SE shift, which is good. NWS still wants to keep the “heavy at times” wording in for both tomorrow and tomorrow night in our area, despite forecasting only 2-3 inches of snow.
  2. TimB
    Seems that way. This winter helped me forget this is the way it almost always works in Pittsburgh, so I wasn’t as prepared as I would normally be for the models completely falling apart with a drastic last minute NW shift, then two days later completely falling apart with a drastic last minute SE shift. It’ll be interesting to see what today’s final snow total is at the airport. Today could be the snowiest day of the week when it’s all said and done.
  3. TimB
    At this point, if I were a betting man, I’d bet against advisory level snowfall. Not saying I’d bet against snowfall at all (yet).
  4. TimB
    Any more SE shift at all and I think our chance at even advisory level snowfall is sunk. I think NWS has me at about 3.8 on the point and click, which is roughly half of what I had as recently as this morning. This one is disappearing as quickly as yesterday’s storm, but in the other direction.
  5. TimB
    Don’t get me wrong, I truly enjoy having four seasons, but summer is by far my least favorite of the four (at least from a weather perspective). The relentless heat and humidity is too much. No snow and very little severe weather to track, at least by the time you get to July/August, and the last few summers have lasted 4-5 months.
  6. TimB
    Ah, I see the one for the Wilmington, OH forecast office is for 2-4 inches and a light glaze of ice. That would barely get us an advisory. Like I said earlier, at least the 7 people that live in Preston/Tucker County, WV (if any of them even like snow) will be satisfied with this storm.
  7. TimB
    There’s a notable gap in the watches somewhere...
  8. TimB
    I actually saved this map from 1/31 because we constantly see ones with no blue, but we never see ones with no orange/red. It was incredible to see.
  9. TimB
    Well folks, Thursday may be it for awhile. We all know how long this pattern seems to persist every time it sets up the past few years.
  10. TimB
    True. Was forgetting we won that storm in the North Hills, even if the “official” total was less than 12”.
  11. TimB
    Likewise. I didn’t live here in 2010, unfortunately. I was old enough in March 1993 to know it was historic, but 8 year old me certainly wasn’t tracking the storm. So I have yet to track even a 12” snow event in Pittsburgh, unless I’m forgetting one.
  12. TimB
    18z NAM as well, though it looks mostly like just better SLRs. No real change to QPF or track from 12z.
  13. TimB
    It feels different when a storm busts in December and you know there’ll be a bunch more chances vs. when two storms in a row bust in late February ahead of a well-advertised pattern flip, followed by, well, actual spring and the next chance could be ten months from now. Ah well, at least in spring I can be disappointed when we get put in an enhanced risk by the SPC and don’t see a drop of rain.
  14. TimB
    And there it goes. Another big shift SE from the Euro.
  15. TimB
    The downward adjustments have begun. Oh well, I’m happy for the 7 people in NWS Pittsburgh’s jurisdiction that will get a 6+ inch snowfall on Thursday.
  16. TimB
    On the topic of TWC, they say 2-6 for Thursday (1-3 day, 1-3 night). NWS issued a watch for PA ridges/Preston & Tucker Co., WV. That means we’re getting an advisory, doesn’t it?
  17. TimB
    My God, that’s nostalgic.
  18. TimB
    Has NWS Pittsburgh ever put the wording into their county forecasts like “light snow accumulations” or “moderate snow accumulations” or “heavy snow accumulations”? I lived in a CWA that did that at one point but this was ten years ago. (Of course, said forecasts closer to the event would say “about 5 inches of snow expected” rather than a less precise but more logical “3-7 inches of snow expected”.) Of course, KMSN’s winter is a lot more predictable than KPIT in general.
  19. TimB
    NAM looks good, all snow now but a pretty quick hitter.
  20. TimB
    That is indeed true. So a quick glance says -1 is tied for 3rd on their list, so it’s about the equivalent of us getting to -18, which as we know is extremely rare.
  21. TimB
    Indeed. KDFW is sitting at -1 at the moment (a temperature we haven’t even come close to in two years).
  22. TimB
    My threshold for what would be “acceptable” is 4” or more, and 0” of plain rain. I see the NWS hasn’t issued a watch yet. We’re about 48 hours, maybe a little less, from onset, depending on which model you like. Is the lack of a watch due to not wanting to confuse the non-weather-enthusiast peasants before this event is completely done, or because they’re nervous about issuing one after this past model bust?
  23. TimB
    The last observation at PIT was 28 with freezing drizzle, so I believe it.
  24. TimB
    Here we go again. But on the plus side, we stayed in the low-mid 30s so our snowpack survived the night. Edit: I guess I mean KPIT. I see KAGC got up to 38. ...and then there’s the NAM, which still wants to give us zr while the low is over southern Georgia to South Carolina.
  25. TimB
    0z NAM continues to run the late week low from Georgia to Delaware while still insisting that the snow changes to ice (though we get 7”). Makes absolutely no sense.
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