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TimB

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  1. TimB
    And there it goes. Another big shift SE from the Euro.
  2. TimB
    The downward adjustments have begun. Oh well, I’m happy for the 7 people in NWS Pittsburgh’s jurisdiction that will get a 6+ inch snowfall on Thursday.
  3. TimB
    On the topic of TWC, they say 2-6 for Thursday (1-3 day, 1-3 night). NWS issued a watch for PA ridges/Preston & Tucker Co., WV. That means we’re getting an advisory, doesn’t it?
  4. TimB
    My God, that’s nostalgic.
  5. TimB
    Has NWS Pittsburgh ever put the wording into their county forecasts like “light snow accumulations” or “moderate snow accumulations” or “heavy snow accumulations”? I lived in a CWA that did that at one point but this was ten years ago. (Of course, said forecasts closer to the event would say “about 5 inches of snow expected” rather than a less precise but more logical “3-7 inches of snow expected”.) Of course, KMSN’s winter is a lot more predictable than KPIT in general.
  6. TimB
    NAM looks good, all snow now but a pretty quick hitter.
  7. TimB
    That is indeed true. So a quick glance says -1 is tied for 3rd on their list, so it’s about the equivalent of us getting to -18, which as we know is extremely rare.
  8. TimB
    Indeed. KDFW is sitting at -1 at the moment (a temperature we haven’t even come close to in two years).
  9. TimB
    My threshold for what would be “acceptable” is 4” or more, and 0” of plain rain. I see the NWS hasn’t issued a watch yet. We’re about 48 hours, maybe a little less, from onset, depending on which model you like. Is the lack of a watch due to not wanting to confuse the non-weather-enthusiast peasants before this event is completely done, or because they’re nervous about issuing one after this past model bust?
  10. TimB
    The last observation at PIT was 28 with freezing drizzle, so I believe it.
  11. TimB
    Here we go again. But on the plus side, we stayed in the low-mid 30s so our snowpack survived the night. Edit: I guess I mean KPIT. I see KAGC got up to 38. ...and then there’s the NAM, which still wants to give us zr while the low is over southern Georgia to South Carolina.
  12. TimB
    0z NAM continues to run the late week low from Georgia to Delaware while still insisting that the snow changes to ice (though we get 7”). Makes absolutely no sense.
  13. TimB
    Now 31 as of 8:51 pm. Plain rain should be here in an hour or so. KMGW is at 37 at this hour. They will hit 40 down there and I’m still not ruling out that we will too.
  14. TimB
    It gets wicked on there when a forecast busts. But even if the original forecast verified and we got 9” of snow, you’d still have people on there thinking they’re clever and witty by making comments about “global warming,” as if a snowstorm negates its existence.
  15. TimB
    The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later.
  16. TimB
    They also have no plain rain in the forecast tonight, at least for here. I see they also told someone on Twitter there won’t be plain rain tonight.
  17. TimB
    You’re right. If DC wins that one but we still do fairly well, so be it, they’re due. And besides, the NAM still needs to come SE with that one. Of course, the NWS has bought in and introduced that tantalizing “snow may be heavy at times in the morning” to their forecast for Allegheny County for Thursday...
  18. TimB
    A small NW trend would be perfect, but we have to be careful what we wish for and 5” is plenty.
  19. TimB
    Euro looks like a snowpack destroyer for tonight. 38 and heavier rain.
  20. TimB
    Maybe I’m thinking of the para. Puts big snowfall rates through that area Thursday morning and nearly a foot total. Realistically, betting on rain for DC with that system or any system is even better than betting on rain for our area.
  21. TimB
    While the GFS is favorable to us, it’s even more favorable to DC.
  22. TimB
    I still think said “thump” will be freezing rain at best and not snow. Here’s a fun question: if the late week storm misses us, is it more likely to go too far SE and give us nothing, or NW and give us rain?
  23. TimB
    Still bad news tonight, but massive SE shift for the GFS for Thursday. 8” on the GFS, 7” on the para.
  24. TimB
    The percentage of the map of the lower 48 that was pink at that moment was incredible and probably unprecedented.
  25. TimB
    All outcomes are on the table at this point, including perhaps reaching our first 40 degree temperature of the month sometime after midnight. Again, I don’t expect that, but it’s a nonzero probability at this point.
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