TimB

Indeed, that is the latest in the KPIT era. There are a couple April days in the very early 1900s that recorded 11+ inches. I guess we did break a few daily snowfall records this winter, when a moderate accumulation happened to line up with a date that had a low-hanging fruit kind of record (I’m thinking Christmas in particular). And I guess we can’t join March of 1903, 1927, and 1946 in infamy as the only ones without measurable snow, since KPIT managed to pick up 0.1” yesterday.

My memory seems to be telling me that was one of those long-duration events that melted almost as it fell, was an advisory rather than a warning, and was little more than a number in the record books. I seem to recall driving the turnpike and being able to safely go 70 the whole way. I could be wrong.

I do agree that this winter has checked most of the boxes. But I’m tired of winter coming to an abrupt end before February is over, as it nearly always seems to in recent years. Is it too much to ask for 2-3” of snow in a month (March) that averages 7.4”? I’m not even asking for half of the average, haha.

Disclaimer: Not from or currently living in this region, but lived in WI for several years including the record snow winter of 2007-08 in Madison (which was awesome! Sign me up for a winter like that in Pittsburgh!). That said, I also find this hobby stressful and emotionally draining, and anxiety inducing, so I understand the grousing over the lack of a true winter, which is unfortunately becoming more and more common in areas on the fringe of the true northern US like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indy, even Detroit, etc. in recent years. We do need everything to go right to get a good snowstorm or polar vortex in these parts. This was largely a good winter here too (a foot above normal snowfall, the whitest Christmas ever recorded here, close to normal temps, almost a month of snow cover which is rare here, our second longest stretch to start a year without hitting 50 degrees - we finally did on 2/24). The models often had us getting a nice cold snap in February, much like the Midwest did. The models lied. February’s average here was 3.5 degrees below normal, but we didn’t have the subzero cold I was hoping for. I know our normal high on 2/28 is 42 but I wasn’t ready for winter to end just yet - March here averages 7” of snow and typically has some cold stretches. An abrupt end to winter on 2/24 was not what I had in mind, and a March that likely will feature below average snowfall here, if we see anything more than a trace at all). We suffered through a 76 degree day in mid-November and still had to deal with a flip to spring before the calendar even flipped to March. I miss when March was marginally a winter month. I miss when November was marginally a winter month. I’m sure Chicagoans do too. Don’t judge snow and cold lovers for getting upset at how short winters are these days. Some of us do get quite grouchy when the seasons aren’t the way we like them, even though we know at the heart of it there’s really nothing we can do about it, outside of moving to a colder climate (which due to the pandemic has never been easier than it is now for any of us that have a job that can be done from anywhere, like myself. Almost considering moving back to the Upper Midwest for the weather alone).

From a PIT person, the GFS and Euro spent a lot of time teasing us with temps in the double digits below zero range on various days for the second and third week of February, sometimes as low as -19, usually about a week out, and were often in agreement on such barely-precedented cold. The lowest temperature we recorded in February was +2, and on many of those days our lows were closer to 20.

CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for that event both had massive areas of 80 and 90 percent probabilities of above normal most days, so that’s a good reason not to even consider it.

After reminding myself how ridiculous that March was, I’m going to bet against an 11 day stretch with highs of 72, 75, 74, 70, 77, 72, 75, 80, 77, 81, and 81 happening this March, so I don’t see 12 above average happening. That said... 2012: 2021: Same pattern, but I’m just going to take a wild guess that it’s not going to be the same magnitude.

I think this cold-ish (i.e., seasonable for early March) start to the month prevents us from seriously challenging 2012. But I’m going with 5+ degrees above normal and less than 3” of snow for the month.

In retrospect, I guess I was hoping for a winter that I’d remember for years to come (like ‘93-‘94), not a winter that I’d forget about in three years (like ‘17-‘18). Those two and this year were all above average snowfall seasons, but one of them will be memorable and two of them won’t. There’s a nonzero chance March will be memorable, but in a 2012 way rather than a 1993 way.

It looks like that’s a wrap. The post-Valentine’s day portion of winter featured not one but two snowstorm busts, a massive warm-up that eliminated a large snowpack in two days, a torrential rainstorm with a brief period of almost summer like humidity, an upcoming seasonably but not anomalously cold stretch without precip, a likely warm spell to follow, and yet another March with likely little to no snow. We’re back to normal!

I hadn’t heard, but seconded. RIP. Kudzma, Bowman and Denardo was unquestionably the golden age of Pittsburgh broadcast meteorology. Obviously with the advent of the internet and such we have so many other means of getting a weather forecast, so such a golden age will sadly never return.

Euro completely schooled the GFS and other models on the magnitude of the warmth we had just 48 hours ago. Euro consistently for the past several runs shows this pattern, which is vastly different from the GFS but the GFS-Para and Canadian have now picked up as well: NWS puts all their eggs in the GFS basket (TWC seems to as well, based on their temperature forecast): Not sure what all this means, but it would seem winter isn’t over and a well-timed/placed storm could give us some snow. It’s no secret that I trust the Euro over the GFS 80-90% of the time, and I double down on that trust in the Euro when it has the hot hand due to recent success.

Despite being hell on earth temperature-wise, it was nice to be a little drier last summer. And yet, we only had a little over 4 months between our first and last 80 degree days. Still, I was ready to pack up and move to Alaska if we didn’t get a real winter this year.

The May/early June heat isn’t too bad since it doesn’t always come with humidity. I’ve never understood the draw to any temperature above 80 unless the dew point is below 60, and we know our summer dew points are in the comfortable 50s for probably about 3 days from mid June to end of August.

That I can live with. We have almost certainly secured our first month with below normal temperature since last May, we got weeks and weeks of snow cover, and we finally recorded a temperature colder than last winter’s minimum. If this is it for winter (I hope we still get another storm, but it’s going to be a tall order with a warm pattern being signaled), we’ve had a very good one. Now if only we can get a spring that fades slowly into summer so the wife doesn’t have to hear me beg to turn on the central air in May, I’ll be even happier.

I think if everything goes right our ceiling is probably about 1.5” or so. But of course it doesn’t always go right. I think we could pick up an inch as our last addition to the snowpack before the first short-lived taste of spring arrives midweek. I like the GFS’s thinking on the pattern after that, but that may be the cold bias again.

It very much is. In any event, KPIT is sitting at 3 at this moment, which ends the streak of not dropping below 5.

I agree that the lack of warmth is also anomalous, and having only 8 other such seasons proves that (but also proves it has occurred before). Days with highs in the teens and nights with lows of 5 or below occur in as many winters as highs in the 60s do, and it is not only anomalous, but in fact unprecedented to go two consecutive winters without those occurring (though I think it’s at least in the realm of possibility for KPIT to drop to 5 tonight). I don’t think it’s odd to notice something that has occurred as many times in Pittsburgh’s history as a high of 104 or a low of -23.

It really has been a fantastic winter when you take a step back and think about it. Especially when you compare it to the past couple. It’s been a long time since we had weeks of snow cover like this. Yeah, with the temperature having reached 21 so far today, we’re going to shatter our record for consecutive days with highs above 20 (it’s never happened in consecutive winters) barring an anomalous cold snap after we flip to March, but this winter has looked and felt like winter for the vast majority of the season.

The Pittsburgh NWS must have heard us complaining about their forecast discussions, the ones yesterday afternoon and this morning seem to be up to standard.

The streak likely ends tomorrow, but today will officially be the 17th straight day with at least a trace of snowfall at the airport.

Completely agree. Of course we’d like to think it wouldn’t happen here, and maybe it wouldn’t, because we have better infrastructure, are better prepared for it, and live in a cold climate so we’re used to crippling snowstorms and severe cold, but then again of course it could. What they got was their equivalent of the Blizzard of ‘93 and the cold snap of January 1994 all at the same time.

Record for below freezing is 33 days, if that gives you an idea. Today is the 36th day in a row with a low below freezing. I’m sure there have been much longer periods than that, but it’s probably uncommon. And at this point, it looks like we won’t hit 50 until at least Wednesday. That would at least tie us for the second longest such streak to start a year in the KPIT era. And apparently, according to the chart below, 1978 is the only year in recorded history that we made it beyond 2/24 without hitting 50 degrees. Isn’t there somewhere you can run neat little charts for things like that? Found it. Record is 51 days without reaching 40. We would be tied for 13th if we get to 26. As expected, 1977, 1978, and 1979 are all over these lists, haha. Edit: almost forgot one. We are now in first place for consecutive days not dropping below 8 degrees. Sunday morning is probably our last shot at not adding 300+ days to that total.

I’d be surprised if we get 3”, but I’d take 1-2, which most models seem to give us. Really depends on when the precip falls. If the bulk of it is before 12z, I’d bet on more snow than rain.

NAM makes Monday look mildly interesting. Very quick hitter but 3”.