TimB

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

Snow totals seem to be steady or slightly down from prior run. GFS is actually showing a low 11 for the same time period where the Euro is -4, but the GFS brings similar cold Monday morning so it’s still a possibility.

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.

Still not convinced this is an all snow event, though if most of the QPF falls on the front end before the warmer air blasts in on Thursday, we could get a decent system. I trust TWC over Accuweather most of the time because Accuweather loves to put freezing rain in the forecast when it really isn’t a possibility (see their current forecast for Saturday evening, for example).

The Euro, and to a somewhat lesser extent, GFS agree. It seems Accuweather, TWC, etc. have gotten on board. The NWS, of course, is carrying its “a chance (50%) of snow showers” wording that it carries for most winter events that are more than 72 hours out around here.

This pattern is trending much snowier and “warmer” (though still below average). I’d be willing to give up on the polar vortex if (1) we get some decent snow events, (2) we finally end our 8 month long streak of above normal temperatures and our 5 year long streak of above normal temperatures in February, and (3) we end our unprecedented streak of not dropping below 8 for two consecutive winters.

I think ultimately this is probably a different discussion for a different day, but I don’t see an issue with these types of things being partially privately funded or using Russian/Chinese data. I would say it’s similar to my views on (to borrow an example from a completely different field, and of course both are private companies) Boeing vs. Airbus. One is unquestionably superior, despite not being American, and when I book a flight, I try to make sure I end up on a plane built by that superior company. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that most in the weather enthusiast community are intelligent, critical thinkers who recognize that “American” doesn’t necessarily mean “better” or “preferable,” or even “should be used simply because it’s American.” On the same critical thinking token, I’m going to assume that weather enthusiasts find scientific accuracy important and are not typically of the opinion that “we shouldn’t use Russian/Chinese data, even if it allows us to produce better forecasts, because Russia/China is bad.”

I’m just going to go on the record and say that I’m not expecting -19 or even double digits below zero, but to me, if the GFS forecasts a temperature like that and then the Euro ends up verifying with lows in the mid-teens above zero, that is just another nail in the coffin of proving that the GFS is an undeniably inferior model that isn’t worth our tax dollars. We’re not talking about a model being off by 10 degrees a week out. We’re talking about 40 degrees or so at some junctures. I’m not fully on board the “stop wasting our tax dollars on the GFS” train, but I’m a lot closer to it than some are.

Agree on all counts, forecasting conservatively a week out is really the only option. The latest GFS nudged about 10 degrees warmer and will likely fall in line at some point. As for “snow showers,” I’ve seen the NWS be guilty of that too, many times.

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

Certainly true. Even with the above average lows, we’ve dipped below freezing for 22 days in a row and counting. The longest such streak last year was 12.

I see where you’re coming from. In my book, lows are part of the picture when it comes to determining if a time period has been “warm” or “cold.” It’s merely a difference of opinion.

There have been fewer warm days than last year, but a similar lack of cold days. Both December and January were above normal for temperature. “Cold” to me means at or below normal for the season. The last period of anomalous cold we had that lasted more than a day or two was in May. We had anomalously warm periods that lasted several days or more in: July, October, and November, to name a few off the top of my head. What was the last season to come in below average? Spring of 2018? Or did that ridiculously warm May where all 31 days were above average do enough to overcome March and April?

That boundary seems to be in a position on the models where any storms that ride through here will produce more rain or mix than snow, and no cold air to be found behind it. After last year’s fake “winter,” I guess I’m just missing the cold and snow that should be typical of Pittsburgh winters. We’ve gotten plenty of the snow, in fact we officially clinched an above average snowfall season this week (but of course I’d love more). But we’ve gotten the same amount of cold as last winter, which is to say none.

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF.

Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.)

Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave.

I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer.

Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994.

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month).

And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal.

My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record.

I like your optimism. I could even live with 47 on Tuesday if it’s followed by -15 by Saturday.