TimB

So long story short, there is no model made in Europe designed to forecast severe weather outbreaks in the US.

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

I wasn’t alive, though I do remember the April 2002 heatwave, which is one of the other standard-bearers for mid-April heat in PA and surrounding areas (though this wasn’t on Easter).

A quick glance shows this was 1976, and still holds all time April records for most of the major cities on the eastern seaboard.

For me, I think it’s pretty straightforward. An Easter that was cold and snowy is a lot more memorable than an Easter that was 64 and sunny. Also, I wouldn’t refer to any April temperature that is within the realm of possibility in PA as “frigid.”

I don’t know about “far less hype”...

All it takes is one to make this a disastrous event and I hope it’s not too late for that.

My God, this seems catastrophic. Worst case scenario.

I suspected it might be something like that, but still was surprised to see it in a warning. It reads to me like a warning saying “Locations impacted include A, B, C, Walmart Distribution Center, D, E, F, Cabela’s, X, Y, Z.” But in seriousness, I sincerely hope the plant gave those people off work today due to the tornado risk and prioritized safety over capitalism. But we know how that usually goes.

* Locations impacted include... Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell, Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before.

Ah, that makes more sense. I read it as “we have tornadoes all the time, so we’re used to it and that will help mitigate the effects if a violent tornado does run right through the middle of our city.” And I hope as much as the next guy that a violent tornado does NOT run through your city or any other town. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.”

I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day?

Last week’s was “a few intense tornadoes likely”...”several intense tornadoes expected” seems a bit more ominous.

Maxed out TOR probabilities.

Was thinking about this. Anecdotally, I would guess that the 30 days before and after about 3/15 have always been our windiest period. Maybe more so in recent years, but I’ve never looked at the data. As for tomorrow’s event, 2/24/19 (I think our most recent high wind watch/warning event in Allegheny County) comes to mind, but over a smaller area of the US and of somewhat lesser magnitude. I just looked at the SPC outlook and reports from the day before that event and lo and behold, there was a tornado outbreak over MS/AL the day before. (Side note: 59 currently at KPIT, 4 degrees warmer than the same time yesterday. That method correctly predicted yesterday’s high of 73, I’m going to say we make it to 77 today if the rain holds off. HRRR agrees. 1pm update: still running 5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Upper 70s still seems on track.)

Sorry, I should have specified what I meant by “a tornado.” I’m not talking about garden variety EF-1’s, I mean something like an EF-4. I’m happy for you that the severity and paths of the tornadoes you get every year haven’t been catastrophic, and I hope we’ll still be able to say the same tomorrow.

Huntsville metro has half a million people. Granted that’s a bit smaller than Birmingham and a lot smaller than Nashville, but comparable to Jackson, MS, and I think the general consensus (with which I agree) was that it was lucky that a “population center” like the Jackson area dodged a bullet last week. A tornado in or around Huntsville would be catastrophic.

The day nobody likes to mention didn’t have a 45% until the afternoon update.

This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5 possible), with considerable destructive potential. A very moist boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms may have substantial tornado threats. Forecast wind fields and model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes. That sounds about as ominous as it gets.

As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel... (can we still use that saying in this day and age?)

Not saying I like the terminology, just saying I’ve always been of the understanding that there is a specific distinction between those terms among meteorologists.

By definition, “strong” refers to EF2+, “violent” refers to EF4+.

I should clarify, “nearly unprecedented” meaning there is only one April day in Pittsburgh’s history with a high of 27 or lower. There are a fair number of April days in our records including two in 2007 where we didn’t make freezing.