TimB

You’re right. If DC wins that one but we still do fairly well, so be it, they’re due. And besides, the NAM still needs to come SE with that one. Of course, the NWS has bought in and introduced that tantalizing “snow may be heavy at times in the morning” to their forecast for Allegheny County for Thursday...

A small NW trend would be perfect, but we have to be careful what we wish for and 5” is plenty.

Euro looks like a snowpack destroyer for tonight. 38 and heavier rain.

Maybe I’m thinking of the para. Puts big snowfall rates through that area Thursday morning and nearly a foot total. Realistically, betting on rain for DC with that system or any system is even better than betting on rain for our area.

While the GFS is favorable to us, it’s even more favorable to DC.

I still think said “thump” will be freezing rain at best and not snow. Here’s a fun question: if the late week storm misses us, is it more likely to go too far SE and give us nothing, or NW and give us rain?

Still bad news tonight, but massive SE shift for the GFS for Thursday. 8” on the GFS, 7” on the para.

The percentage of the map of the lower 48 that was pink at that moment was incredible and probably unprecedented.

All outcomes are on the table at this point, including perhaps reaching our first 40 degree temperature of the month sometime after midnight. Again, I don’t expect that, but it’s a nonzero probability at this point.

At this point, since there isn’t much hope of snow, just give me the 3/4” of ice the NAM is depicting. Won’t need to worry about hypothermia if the power goes out since it’ll be 32-37 degrees outside by morning.

Also blasts our temperature above freezing as early as 9pm.

Especially considering the prior run showed 4 inches. Also, how far south does the goddamn low need to be to give us snow? Infuriating.

Every time I hear this line uttered, and it’s been many, I want to gouge my eardrums out with a pen. But yes, that is the general public’s philosophy on a topic they know literally nothing about. And that is who the NWS’s messaging is directed at, and so there’s pressure from all sides to stay the course when a warning or advisory is issued, so we don’t confuse them. Weather enthusiasts like us are a different breed. Side note: WPXI isn’t my favorite local news source for weather forecasts, but I’m a die-hard Jeopardy fan and usually switch to Netflix/Hulu at 7:30, so if I switch back to the TV earlier in the evening when making/eating dinner, etc., it’s often what’s on and I’m too lazy to change it.

I am enjoying this burst of heavy snow I’m getting right now.

This is absolutely what I’m referring to when I refer to the “bureaucratic nonsense” that I’m completely certain the NWS has to deal with. That having to issue a warning and then back it off to an advisory leaves the ignorant general public confused and thinking the NWS is totally incompetent. Almost like a Dunning-Kruger effect. And so the higher up bureaucrats probably frown upon that happening too many times for that reason.

Unfortunately, that is just how it goes around here. I remembered back when, before we knew about this storm, the Euro thought we’d be at -19 this morning and realized that even if we did start at -19 and then this storm rolled through, it would still end up as rain.

Seconded. If the over/under for the second wave were set at 0.1” or even trace, I’d take the under. Whatever we get from this small spot of yellow on the NWS radar is basically our snow total for this storm.

Very useful information, I was not aware. Thank you for this. I’m glad to see our somewhat archaic system is being improved. Not sure I’m all in on the 35 day range thing, but to each his own.

Exactly. It’s not at all unusual to see snowstorms turn to crap in these parts, but it’s upsetting when it happens this fast and this close to the event.

ZL was observed at Pgh International at 6am.

True. It’s too early in the morning. The models made a massive error in the track of the storm just 48 hours out. Still not something I feel mets should face one bit of “scrutiny” for.

TWC has me at plain rain as early as 10pm.

I just don’t know about mets getting any scrutiny*, it was the models that didn’t get a handle on what was happening with this storm and how much warm air it would pull into our area like storms always do, until it was way too late and everyone already had their hopes up for a good snow event. Do we need to maybe start partially privately funding the GFS and using Russian and Chinese satellite data like the Euro does, and ditch the strictly American idea that anything Russian or Chinese is bad and shouldn’t be used by an American agency like the NWS? Probably, but the Euro and pretty much every model on the planet also had issues with this storm and is showing a far different solution for the Thursday storm from what any of the other models are. *Except for the NWS’s tendency to hold the line on their forecasts for a lot longer than they should, and not backing down on snow totals until well after the models paint a clear picture of what’s going to happen. But as I theorized before, even that may not be the mets’ fault. I still think it’s not that far-fetched, maybe even likely, that in a government agency like the NWS, there’s some sort of bureaucratic nonsense involved, like possibly audits of individual NWS offices by the higher ups, where they are evaluated on some sort of performance rubric that might include things like “how many times did you issue a warning only to later downgrade it to an advisory?” And the higher ups/people doing the evaluating may not know or care that this area is harder than average to forecast. Presumably most of us have had performance evaluations at work and know how arbitrary they can be. If NWS offices get reprimanded by the higher ups for such trivial things as bruising someone’s ego by pointing out an inaccurate comment on what areas will be affected by a hurricane, it’s not far-fetched at all to think they can get reprimanded for issuing too many warnings that turned into advisories. Tl;dr: I’m defending mets here, the models blew it this time.

In short, the Euro gives us the temperature profile we need for the Thursday storm. Other models give us the same garbage as today’s storm, albeit with a little more snow.

Also, the early look at the Thursday system on the 0z NAM doesn’t look like it’s going to be a winner.