TimB

Where did I say he has to be right? But his opinion should be respected, and I would say it does prove he knows more about infectious disease than the people calling him a “clown” on a weather forum. But what do I know?

It’s really hard to take an argument, or the person presenting it, seriously when one refers to a guy with an MD from an Ivy League university as a “clown.”

That will still be countered with gerrymandering and laws (that would have been unconstitutional with any Supreme Court but the current one) designed to make sure fewer people vote. Georgia is writing the playbook that Texas, Florida, and NC will use.

So when it comes down to that, spring and fall are warmer than they’ve ever been, summer is warmer than it’s been in over 160 years, winter is almost as warm as it’s ever been, and the annual average is warmer than its ever been.

One could say using 90 years of data when we have 140 seems as arbitrary as using 10 years of data when we have 140. On the flip side, I can’t be the only one who thinks weather records from the 1800s are suspect due to technology or procedures or both. So it might be fair to look at 90 years. If we do that for Pittsburgh (my location), I typically only compare apples to apples and use data from 1948-present (when observations began being taken at the airport). And, considering only data from those 73 years, I think I determined that 8 of the 12 months of the year recorded their hottest average temperature on record within the past decade.

Pittsburgh is +6.3, and that includes near-record cold the first two days of the month. The upcoming pattern should moderate things a little, but it still looks like a few degrees either side of average for the most part, so you’re still looking at a positive anomaly unless we average well below normal the rest of the way. Should be our 10th above normal month out of the past 11, and that’s not long after an 18 month streak of above average from February 2016 to July 2017.

How naive of me to forget that the human race is comprised mostly of s***heads whose main objective in life is to s*** on other people every chance they get.

But in all seriousness, I guess it’s not all that far-fetched that situations like that could happen in the United States. Based on everything that has happened throughout history, if something can be used to discriminate against people, it probably will.

This is very wrong and a big problem. But I disagree that it’s “the inevitable consequence of vaccine passports.” That’s an extremist viewpoint from an extremist individual who sensationalizes for clicks and views. Look her up.

That’s where I would be alarmed. Outside of the cold season, highs, lows, everything has made a steady climb of anywhere from 3-5 degrees for the most part. UHI affects lows more than highs, and DTW is nearly 20 miles from downtown, yet the daily highs in July and August have increased by about 5 degrees over the last century. I thought for a minute that my use of the word “catastrophic” was extremist, but now that I see the data, I stand by my use of that word, because the data affirms it.

Where’s the personal bacteria farm guy? He might have something to say.

Absolutely. And I have a feeling that even if a bunch of young, educated liberals flock to cities in the South, it won’t automatically flip the 67 electoral votes and congressional seats in TX/FL, it’ll just result in more gerrymandering and legislation designed to reduce turnout.

The general public might appreciate warmer mins in January, but the general public (especially those that tragically lose a loved one) won’t appreciate a heat wave of the magnitude of what happened in Europe in 2019, and I won’t back down from my belief that it’s mostly luck that it hasn’t happened here.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if a bunch of businesses moved to Florida and Texas for things conservatives like, such as low taxes and warm climates, then brought in a bunch of young, educated, liberal talent and flipped 67 electoral votes in the process?

You mean snow?

Actually now that I think about it, I could really get behind younger and more educated people flocking to those cities and making the population of their respective states more urban/suburban and less rural.

I would describe myself as a low temperature nerd. That said, I still think if these things can occur in Europe or Siberia or Antarctica or Beijing or Phoenix or the Midwest in March, they can happen in the Midwest in July and some of the reason it hasn’t happened yet may be due to farming practices, but I would guess that some of it is also due to chance.

At the end of the day, the max temps haven’t grabbed the US headlines so they’re outside the consciousness of the American general public. Like the 100 degrees in the Siberian Arctic last summer, the all time record temps in the Antarctic during their previous summer, the European heat wave of 2019, or even Beijing breaking their all time winter record temperature by ten degrees, all of which were cases of record max temperatures being broken or completely shattered. The closest analog I can think of here in the states is March 2012, when several sites in the upper Midwest were breaking daily record highs at midnight and at least one site (Rochester, MN?) had a daily low exceed that day’s record high. But that wasn’t in the middle of summer when such anomalous heat would be deadly and grab a lot of attention. Edit: I know I suffered through 104 degree heat in summer 2012 in south central WI, but even that wasn’t unprecedented. We’ve dodged bullets in all of the really hot summers lately with respect to all time record maxes in the Midwest and Ohio Valley but our luck will run out someday. This year seems like a good candidate for that happening. Edit 2: Phoenix’s data for last summer/“fall” (monthly record highs in August, September, October, and November) are absolutely horrifying. But it’s not shocking to non-weather weenies because it’s Phoenix.

That too. Winters in the Midwest and Ohio Valley (and yes, I consider myself in Pittsburgh to be in the Ohio Valley because it technically is, lol) probably won’t be completely ruined in our lifetimes, because we’ll get more snow to go with the slightly higher average temperatures. At some level of warming, that scale will tip to drastically reduce the level of snowfall, especially closer to I-70, but we’re not there yet. Obviously it’ll take longer closer to the I-80/90/94 corridors.

I hesitate to use the word “catastrophic” for fear of sensationalizing, but this seems like it might be an appropriate time.

Fair enough.

No, hence the reason I said someone else’s response “would indicate” that it’s expensive. Also, February’s tragic events prove without a doubt that Texas isn’t the utopia that Texans think it is.

It’s my understanding that warm mins are one of the greatest contributors to heat wave deaths, so yeah, the average July min increasing by 3 degrees in just 10 years at any location should be a huge story for both weather enthusiasts and the general public.

Quick, what’s one of the biggest differences between Austin and most other parts of Texas? Actually, let’s make that rhetorical. We’re way off topic and this is getting partisan and has little to do with covid.

All that model noise and it looks like we’re back to our usual pattern of alternating between unseasonable warmth and “cooler” periods that are still at or slightly above normal.