TimB

This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5 possible), with considerable destructive potential. A very moist boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms may have substantial tornado threats. Forecast wind fields and model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes. That sounds about as ominous as it gets.

As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel... (can we still use that saying in this day and age?)

Not saying I like the terminology, just saying I’ve always been of the understanding that there is a specific distinction between those terms among meteorologists.

By definition, “strong” refers to EF2+, “violent” refers to EF4+.

I should clarify, “nearly unprecedented” meaning there is only one April day in Pittsburgh’s history with a high of 27 or lower. There are a fair number of April days in our records including two in 2007 where we didn’t make freezing.

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

Well on our way to our first 70 degree day, we’re 6 degrees ahead of 24 hours ago and we hit 67 yesterday. High wind watch for Friday - I know these almost always become advisories and not warnings, but something to watch.

The only model I feel “authorized” to criticize is the GFS since our tax dollars pay for it. And it’s been a disaster lately.

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.

I must say that’s actually pretty close to my viewpoint and probably that of many weather enthusiasts - that extreme seasons are a lot more fun than average ones. Fortunately we live in the type of climate where no matter what kind of weather you prefer, there will be plenty of times you’ll be overjoyed with the weather and plenty of times where you’ll be completely exasperated with it. The Mrs. sometimes tosses around the idea of moving elsewhere but if it’s a place without four seasons as varied as ours are, that might be “irreconcilable differences,” lol (and I’m only half kidding). (But I wouldn’t be opposed to living in this fantasy world the GFS lives in - without looking at climate records, this looks like a close cousin to those -19 lows in February that the models toyed with. It comes with a modest amount of snow too. Edit: Good thing that feature completely flipped with the next two runs.)

Knew I’d get called out for this and figured it’d be you, haha. You know I’m all about records and chaos - I certainly don’t want 20-30 days of below zero mornings in the winter any more than I want 20-30 days in the summer to get into the 90s. If, come July, the models are showing us hitting 104 (once and only once, preferably with relatively lower humidity - think 2012 in the midwest - and a quick return to the 80s afterward - okay, that’s too many caveats), I’ll be all for it. But there’s a difference to me between setting all time records or near-records and having days and days of hot or cold misery (though, subjectively, hot is way more miserable than cold to me). I know some of us have talked about weather enthusiasts vs. non-weather enthusiasts a good bit on here, and all it takes is one look at NWS Pittsburgh’s Facebook or, to a slightly lesser extent, Twitter, to see all kinds of people who don’t appear to be weather enthusiasts saying things like “give me 90s with humidity” and I’m genuinely curious as to what makes those types of conditions enjoyable to some, because it seems absolutely miserable to me (as would be 100 or -15, but I’d take those for the weather chaos factor as delineated above).

I surely hope not, I’ve truly never understood the appeal of 90 degree days. Perhaps a warm weather person could explain, lol. What could be more enjoyable about 90 than, say, low 80s? What activities can one do that are significantly enhanced when the temperature is 90 as opposed to 83? Honest question, not knocking anyone’s preferences.

It’s back yet again. We know this pattern persists for months on end once it sets up, so it’s going to be another brutally hot summer like last year. Why can’t we ever catch a break in this ridiculous, very-likely-climate-change-influenced pattern?

Come on now, these days that are 67 and sunny just drive my passion for weather. I can’t be the only one.

I’d settle for dew points in the 40s or even low 50s most days of summer. Then again, I lived in the desert for a few years and I swear I could feel a difference when the dew point started to hit 40 in summer. Speaking of dews, most models shoot them into the mid-upper 50s later this week. Perhaps we can get favorable timing of the late week cold front to get a strong storm or two?

Agreed on the PSU hire. I’m a Wisconsin guy myself though PSU runs in my family’s blood as it does for a lot of Pennsylvanians. Glad Wisconsin finally put together a complete game and scored 85 and dismantled UNC in a game that was never really contested. Those kids have been together four years and finally got to experience the joy of winning a tournament game. They’ll get dismantled by Baylor on Sunday but I’m on cloud nine.

The trusty GFS cold bias still rolls a couple of storms with snow in the cold sector through the northeast bookending next weekend.

This aged well, though I’ll admit I questioned it after the Big Ten tourney.

A comprehensive list of all the Pittsburgh years that had less than 0.7” of snow from Feb. 23 until the last measurable snow of spring: 1. 1903* (0.1”) 2. 2021** (0.1”) *observations were not taken at KPIT, would likely have been more than 0.1” if the airport existed at the time **still ongoing, though increasingly likely we’re done

Interestingly, the official total of 2.19” at KPIT yesterday appears to be the highest total in PA reported by the NWS. If only we could get that bullseye during a snowstorm. (Not necessarily saying 2.19”, obviously that would be historic at 10:1 and an all time record at 12:1).

Looks like 1.85” of rain so far at KPIT. 2nd wettest March day on record. Won’t catch 3/6/45 with 2.58”. (Edited 7pm)

It depends on whether that day was in April/October or in July. As a cold fan, a sunny and 67 July day in PA for me would be wonderful.

Someone in my home thread put it in this perspective for me: weather will happen and lives will be lost whether we root for it or not. Tornadoes and blizzards are much more fascinating than 70 and sunny. I can’t imagine there are many weather enthusiasts in San Diego.

At the root of it, and to play devil’s advocate, is there really any difference between hoping for a tornado or hurricane vs. hoping for a blizzard/historic cold/record heat wave/etc.? Lives are lost in all of the above. I would argue that all events where someone dies are tragic. Some (not necessarily me, unless we’re talking about massive devastation where people lose everything and not just something like burst pipes or a flooded basement or needing a new roof) might even argue that all events where anyone’s property is damaged, even if no one is hurt or killed, are tragic.

Believe me, I understand that job and many others can’t be done from home! Thank you for the essential services you provide to our society.