TimB

Way too far out to mean anything, but the last two runs of the GFS toward the end of the period are entertaining.

A slow, painful transition to summer with scarcely a rumble of thunder or even a snow flurry in most areas.

How often in April do the SPC outlooks for both D3 and D4-8 show absolutely zero chance of severe anywhere in the CONUS? And not “predictability too low,” this is “potential too low.”

This is incredible.

It’s my fault. I should have taken the high road instead of engaging with a bad faith, off topic comment. None of the ensuing flame war would have occurred if I just did that. I’ll do better the next time. Apologies.

I mean I agree that it probably doesn’t belong in a thread discussing April 2021 weather in the Midwest, but I am disappointed in the number of fellow weather enthusiasts who put their fingers in their ears when it comes to science.

I challenge you to find me a peer reviewed study on any of this stuff. I’ll wait.

Fair enough, and my apologies. I’ve said what I wanted to say on the matter and no more. Back on topic, so how ‘bout that double digit temperature anomaly at ORD thus far this April?!

That is interesting, and I’m not sure I have enough knowledge to really explain that. From a statistical perspective, I would caution you on the “warming was similar” statement: based on the second graph you provided, the trend line increases by about 0.3 degrees Celsius from 1880-1940 (0.005 degrees per year) and by about 1.0 degree Celsius from 1970-2015 (0.022 degrees per year). So the rate of warming was more than 4 times as fast during the latter period compared to the former. I’m not sure I would describe that as “similar.”

“The same type” is relatively meaningless. A Boeing 737 MAX and an Airbus A321 are roughly “the same type” of airplane. But I do my research when I book flights and wouldn’t book a flight on one of those two.

By a huge anti vaxxer, do you mean an anti vaxxer who is huge, or someone who is very anti vax? The former would make her very high risk.

He won’t get cancer, I’m sure that’s what he’ll tell you.

Baseball has plenty of players who are built like Bartolo Colon or David Wells or Prince Fielder, all of whom would have at least some risk of severe covid. Hell, I’m fairly certain that Babe Ruth would have died of covid if it had been around in his time. I get your point, but baseball might be the wrong sport to choose if we want to talk about extremely healthy people in athlete level shape.

I would rather my house be as cold as I can possibly stand so the next big warm-up (which thankfully looks to be at least a week or two away) has to work harder to bring uncomfortably warm temperatures to the inside of my house. But for those who want this kind of nonsense in April, the 6z GFS might give you some hope.

I’ve always been of the opinion that we don’t need two Dakotas, but lately I’ve been of the opinion that we don’t even need one Dakota.

I’m not an infectious disease specialist, but I would think the mortality rate for covid among “extremely healthy” people is greater than 1 in 6.8 million, which seems to be the mortality rate for the J&J vaccine (at least with respect to blood clots).

Is there a generally accepted meteorological definition for the dates that the “cold season” spans?

Though it does sound like the Pfizer is close to full approval and they are now seeking approval for 12-15 year olds. (This is good news for the “we need schools open as soon as humanly possible” crowd.)

Bad news indeed when a vaccine can be pulled because 0.0000009% of people had a side effect that, from what I can tell, didn’t kill them (I would assume if they died it would be in the article).

Oh, we know.

I know it’s just an example, but imagine how well that would go over with the segment of the population that disparages Bill Nye for not being a “real scientist” but has no problem with Dr. Phil, Dr. Oz, or Dr. Seuss.

Not sure precision was, though.

Take it easy on dta, maybe the past seven presidents of the United States have consulted him on infectious disease too.

I don’t think it’s a disservice to observers of the past to say that weather data was probably of much less importance to society than it is now. That’s not the observers’ fault.

His MD from Cornell and many decades of experience as an infectious disease specialist and as an advisor to seven different presidents (including four republicans) speak for themselves.