TimB

Who knows, maybe the next 10 years will be cold. Oh wait...

Okay so Pittsburgh isn’t exactly tornado alley by any stretch, but we get enough in this region that normies shouldn’t be saying “you can effectively ignore any tornado watch/warning issued for Allegheny County,” and yet I’ve seen and heard it said multiple times in the last few years.

Longest streaks in May where the temperature failed to reach 60 in Pittsburgh: 1. 5/2-5/13/1917 (12 days). 2. 5/4-5/12/1954 (9 days). 3. 5/6-5/13/1989 (8 days). T-4. 5/8-5/14/1960 (7 days). T-4. 5/3-5/9/1929 (7 days). 6. 5/5-5/10/1947 (6 days). T-7. 5/1-5/5/1921 (5 days). T-7. 5/11-5/15/1878 (5 days). T-7. 5/1-5/5/1908 (5 days). T-10. 11 streaks of 4 days, most recently in 2005, 2002 and 1994 Some of these are part of longer streaks that started in April, but I’m only counting the May days in those streaks.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but that seems to indicate that September and December were 6(!) degrees warmer in Harrisburg from 2011-2020 than they were from 1981-1990.

Also appears NWS Pittsburgh has confirmed the first tornado of the year.

Quite possibly. Pittsburgh is another location where normal snowfall increased by several inches, and a fair portion of our snowfall is driven by the lakes. I’ll bet there are other more complex factors involved like storm tracks (that may also be affected by climate change).

2 active tornado warnings in PA now (I imagine for the same line at the border of PBZ/CTP areas, one issued by PBZ and the other by CTP).

Looks like the new normals were released today. Temps seem to be about half a degree or so higher for most parts of the year, and our new normal snowfall increased by over 2 inches to 44.1.

Very trading.

You’re right, model trends seem to show this pattern being more persistent. GFS run after run with little or no 70s after today through the end of its run and the Euro doesn’t seem to want to bounce things back to seasonable mid-next week anymore either. I’d also rather have seasonably cool than unseasonably cold in May - unless we get at least a trace of snow, which doesn’t seem likely.

That’s what I noticed. The current streak and the 1887 one are the only ones that have survived April.

Second one is (was?) a PDS. In a slight risk area.

You were on the shortlist of people I thought would appreciate that portion of that post. But in all seriousness, if my contribution to this forum on a dreary, rainy Monday in my locale is going to be a sad personal post in a thread that’s taken a dark turn, then I have to find an opportunity to inject a little bit of humor. It’s my coping mechanism, I’d rather be laughing than crying.

My wife and sister (different people, I’m not from Alabama) are both prone to panic attacks. My sister’s are PTSD related from witnessing a gun-related suicide as it unfolded and I know she has the heart rate stuff, my wife’s are mostly just paralyzing fear and anxiety without really a known cause.

And a resting heart rate of 36? But all jokes aside, that sounds horrific and it would seem there’s a solid chance the two are related.

Not saying I think May will average out below normal when it’s all said and done (I don’t), but warm weather fans in Pittsburgh have, as a whole, gotten to enjoy 10 out of the last 11 months and 57 out of the last 73. So it’s hard to look at a week-long stretch where temperatures run ~10 degrees below normal as all that bad. Except the rain nearly every day, that’s a different story.

It’s safe for the CPC to just mail it in and make every one and three month outlook look like some variation of this, and it will verify 90% of the time.

Model trends already seem to be moving toward a seasonably cool pattern rather than anomalously cold junk like highs in the 40s. I know it’s setting the bar incredibly low to state that I think every day in this pattern will break 50 and that the low of 32 this past Saturday will be our last freezing temperature until at least October, but both do seem likely.

It could be worse. Never forget:

Even at many times in 2020 during the height of the pandemic it was that way in BFE. I went into a few places in my wife’s hometown in BFE, PA and was stunned at the approximately 50% of people that weren’t wearing masks.

I’d also be all in on the idea of just letting the virus do what it may among the unvaccinated once everyone has had their chance to get a vaccine, except for the worry that continuing to spread the virus may produce variants that make the vaccine less effective.

Indeed, May is one of those months that’s been consistently warm as a whole in recent years (except last year), but I can remember notably cold periods in the first half of every recent May except 2018 (the year all 31 days were above normal).

Euro has us at 42 with rain next Saturday afternoon. The irony is that’s almost exactly where we were at the same time last year.

So the answer is nothing particularly notable, lol.