TimB

Guess what’s made it into the point & click for parts of Allegheny County.

Probably still perusing the data, particularly hour 300 and beyond of the GFS, and pounding his fists.

Don’t even, I’m dta1984’s sock puppet account.

Exactly. I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say half of those places I mentioned will probably hit 90 in May. Didn’t MSP hit 100 degrees in May during a “cold” spring a couple years back?

Summer always comes. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that IND, DTW, ORD, PIT, CLE, BUF, MSN, MKE, and DSM (am I missing anyone that posts in here?) will all exceed their long term averages for 90 degree days this summer. We’ll see.

To the extent that the GFS (or really anything beyond D10) can be trusted, the last couple runs continue to double down on the extent of the cold after the warmup. Then again, there were quite a few GFS runs that I remember painting a very warm, humid picture for the first half of May, 10-14 days out.

I would say a significant portion of people who post on weather forums, probably a majority, would classify ourselves as “odd ducks.” So the guy likes predicting what the weather will be like on holidays, months in advance, presumably for entertainment purposes, and then seeing if his forecasts based (I would assume) mostly on guesswork verify. A living, breathing, Farmer’s Almanac.

Oh God, the NAM is on board too.

Don’t get covid.

Well, I guess one run of one (somewhat inferior) model showing 5-9” of 10:1 snow along the US-18 corridor technically makes this event more likely than zero models showing it...

Shades of 1947.

Indeed, 73 people in this country got to see their normal temperatures go down.

Let the GFS finish.

Annual +0.6, September +2.0. I’m mostly talking about September, which for many of us is the month that’s been the most f***ed by AGW. UHI? Maybe some effect, but Pittsburgh’s airport is 20 miles away from the city (upwind, usually, at that), and at a higher elevation by several hundred feet.

10/150 = 7% 3/12 = 25%

The PTSD is strong with this one. Good thing it’s May and not January so there’s nothing to be bummed out about.

https://www.weather.gov/media/pbz/records/warmmonthave.pdf This is Pittsburgh’s.

It’s my understanding that observations were taken at a few different locations, mostly in or near the city (the airport is nearly 20 miles west). Personally, I only compare apples to apples when looking at temperature data (1948-present), because there are all sorts of variables that could influence whether or not data from the 1880s at a different location could be compared to data from the 2020s at the current location. As for Harrisburg, it seems to me that if a 30 year weighted average went up by 2 degrees by taking and replacing 1/3 of the data, it would stand to reason that the replaced data was 6 degrees lower than the new data. For example: suppose the averages for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were all 70 degrees. 70+70+70 = 210 / 3 = 70. To get that average to 72, we would need the 210 to become 216, so 70+70+76 = 216 / 3 = 72. Am I missing something? Regardless, even if the temperatures for a particular month somewhere were 3.5 degrees warmer (and not 6) than they were just 30 degrees earlier, it would and should set off major alarm bells.

One of my coworkers had something like that, but I can’t remember which one she got.

I guess I should consider myself extremely lucky, seeing all these side effects. I got the Pfizer and was tired for a few hours in the afternoon after my second shot, but that was after getting up early and driving two hours to get it, so it may not have even been the shot.

So sorry for your loss. But now I’m worried, did that person’s question imply a person should know what medications and vitamins and supplements their friends take? If so, I need to re-evaluate my life.

The story in Pittsburgh is much the same. In the 73 years of observations at the airport, the warmest average temperature for 7 of the 12 months has occurred between 2015 and now. This includes the four warmest Septembers in that 73 year period (2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019). I saw something in the Central PA thread that Harrisburg, PA (granted, a little further east than this subforum) had their September and December normals go up by two full degrees - doesn’t that indicate that the 2010s were six(!) degrees warmer than the 1980s in those months? The picture is pretty clear unless one is blatantly ignoring it.

2015 had a ridiculously warm December, at least in Pittsburgh (5 degrees warmer than any other December since observations moved to the airport in 1948), so probably in Buffalo too - I would guess it was on track for low 47’s with a normal December.

This is why it’s even more incredible that the averages went up so much. Despite incredibly cold periods in 2014 and 2015, those were entirely erased and then some by the period from 2016-2020, which I would guess was the warmest five year period in recorded history for many locations.

Well there goes my “10 months out of the past 11” narrative. That said, I absolutely think it’s reasonable to compare the April 2021 temperature to the 1991-2020 normals. (To the extent that moving the goalposts every ten years is reasonable in and of itself.) Not sure we can or should retroactively apply the 1991-2020 normals to temperatures observed last year or before, but September and December 2020 would also be below the 1991-2020 normal.