TimB

I take back everything I said about the Euro. Holy ****, that’s a dramatic shift.

Sure enough, the backdoor cold front wins on the Euro too. Perhaps more decisively than on the others.

Ah, you’re right. I was confusing the relatively cooler 60s east with the misery to come for the entire eastern half of the country that the GFS depicts after the cooler airmass is pushed away. Obviously I’m rooting for that back door front to go as far west as it possibly can.

DPs on the cold side of the back door front drop into the 30s south (40s on my side of the mountains) and upper 20s north on the CMC.

Ukie looks to be in that camp as well. GFS suggested that with the 0z (and the 18z and 6z, to the extent that those count), but blasts all kinds of heat and humidity into PA from the Midwest with a very persistent ridge on the 12z. But the 12z GFS yesterday was almost a carbon copy of today’s run. Will be interesting to see what pattern the Euro suggests.

Just kidding. 12z proves the CMC is just as drunk as the GFS.

Maybe it’s just easier and more convenient to be critical of the GFS because my tax dollars weren’t just spent to “upgrade” the Euro to a new version that seems to perform worse than the old one.

Oh, it has been. The only difference is it doesn’t completely flip on the large scale pattern beyond day 7 seemingly every run.

I feel like the CMC is undercutting dewpoints significantly in that timeframe. Verbatim, it shows close to 90 with dews in the 40s to near 50, but no other guidance seems to suggest an airmass that dry.

Was just looking at the GFS this morning and thinking about how lost it seems - it appears it has returned to its island with respect to how the pattern evolves later next week.

1988 is the 2012 for people older than me. Another year that comes to mind is 1995. Crazy thing about 1995 in Pittsburgh is we had an 8 day streak and a separate 7 day streak of highs in the 90s and a maximum temperature for the summer of 100 (haven’t hit 100 since) that was not part of either of those stretches.

Can’t honestly think of another reason to travel to Mississippi (or Alabama, or Oklahoma, or Kansas).

Almost certainly the last cold headline of the season. GFS was the only holdout denying summer’s arrival next week and it’s jumped aboard the summer train on its last few runs with the heat and, more notably, humidity. There isn’t a dewpoint below 60 from hour 219 on.

The following Saturday is also 70s with oppressive humidity (on the GFS) so you can wear shorts then...

Isn’t 1988 another one of those years we don’t speak of when comparing current conditions (like a certain year last decade and a certain year in the Dust Bowl era)?

Even if it’s mostly 70s, the GFS sends near-70 dewpoints pouring into PA later next week.

Model developers: “how can we make our new model sound as incredible as possible?” PR person: “say GFS-like physics”

That’s the thing, it’s not like we’re dealing with hour 372 here. Today’s GFS runs had some particularly wild swings in the D9 timeframe in particular.

You’re right, my comment was rather misleading. The GFS has come a long way. But in general, what I’m saying is I wouldn’t bet on any model that is completely out on an island when compared against pretty much every other model... ...especially if the model out on an island is the GFS.

Even using the 1991-2020 normals which weren’t yet in place, there were 23 months out of 72 (32%) from 2015-2020 that were below normal at my location, and never more than 4 in any of those years. I wouldn’t call that plenty.

I would guess something like looking at a particular WFO and seeing how many severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings were issued, or combing through years and years of SPC watches and storm reports, to the extent that any of this stuff is on the internet for a significantly long period of time. It sounds like it would be tedious to impossible.

I’d be banking on the Euro because: 1) it’s the superior model and 2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

My WFH since 2020 job has very little face to face (now zoom) interaction with clients and my wife’s WFH since 2020 job has virtually zero interaction on camera. So I can assure you I wear shorts when the temperature gets above an acceptable threshold, even on weekdays. Probably would wear something nicer on top and still wear shorts on bottom interacting with clients on camera because who sees below chest level in a zoom meeting?

The Euro does seem to agree on the cooler early part of the week. But not to worry, the GFS now has us at 65 for next Thursday so model agreement is coming back. Euro really delivers the goods (for those who like 70s or above). Edit: full on summer. Dew points look to surge into the 65-70 range by mid to late next week. Gross.

Yeah, it’s not as straightforward as other climate change-related issues and I agree with you on that. Especially considering that the “Midwest” includes Cleveland, Ohio and Dodge City, Kansas and everything in between, and obviously those two locations have two completely different climates. I’m just saying even if we could definitively say “climate change has ruined severe weather outbreaks by making them less common,” I don’t think anyone other than meteorologists and severe weather enthusiasts would shed a tear or be compelled to act.