TimB

https://www.weather.gov/media/pbz/records/warmmonthave.pdf This is Pittsburgh’s.

It’s my understanding that observations were taken at a few different locations, mostly in or near the city (the airport is nearly 20 miles west). Personally, I only compare apples to apples when looking at temperature data (1948-present), because there are all sorts of variables that could influence whether or not data from the 1880s at a different location could be compared to data from the 2020s at the current location. As for Harrisburg, it seems to me that if a 30 year weighted average went up by 2 degrees by taking and replacing 1/3 of the data, it would stand to reason that the replaced data was 6 degrees lower than the new data. For example: suppose the averages for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were all 70 degrees. 70+70+70 = 210 / 3 = 70. To get that average to 72, we would need the 210 to become 216, so 70+70+76 = 216 / 3 = 72. Am I missing something? Regardless, even if the temperatures for a particular month somewhere were 3.5 degrees warmer (and not 6) than they were just 30 degrees earlier, it would and should set off major alarm bells.

One of my coworkers had something like that, but I can’t remember which one she got.

I guess I should consider myself extremely lucky, seeing all these side effects. I got the Pfizer and was tired for a few hours in the afternoon after my second shot, but that was after getting up early and driving two hours to get it, so it may not have even been the shot.

So sorry for your loss. But now I’m worried, did that person’s question imply a person should know what medications and vitamins and supplements their friends take? If so, I need to re-evaluate my life.

The story in Pittsburgh is much the same. In the 73 years of observations at the airport, the warmest average temperature for 7 of the 12 months has occurred between 2015 and now. This includes the four warmest Septembers in that 73 year period (2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019). I saw something in the Central PA thread that Harrisburg, PA (granted, a little further east than this subforum) had their September and December normals go up by two full degrees - doesn’t that indicate that the 2010s were six(!) degrees warmer than the 1980s in those months? The picture is pretty clear unless one is blatantly ignoring it.

2015 had a ridiculously warm December, at least in Pittsburgh (5 degrees warmer than any other December since observations moved to the airport in 1948), so probably in Buffalo too - I would guess it was on track for low 47’s with a normal December.

This is why it’s even more incredible that the averages went up so much. Despite incredibly cold periods in 2014 and 2015, those were entirely erased and then some by the period from 2016-2020, which I would guess was the warmest five year period in recorded history for many locations.

Well there goes my “10 months out of the past 11” narrative. That said, I absolutely think it’s reasonable to compare the April 2021 temperature to the 1991-2020 normals. (To the extent that moving the goalposts every ten years is reasonable in and of itself.) Not sure we can or should retroactively apply the 1991-2020 normals to temperatures observed last year or before, but September and December 2020 would also be below the 1991-2020 normal.

Who knows, maybe the next 10 years will be cold. Oh wait...

Okay so Pittsburgh isn’t exactly tornado alley by any stretch, but we get enough in this region that normies shouldn’t be saying “you can effectively ignore any tornado watch/warning issued for Allegheny County,” and yet I’ve seen and heard it said multiple times in the last few years.

Longest streaks in May where the temperature failed to reach 60 in Pittsburgh: 1. 5/2-5/13/1917 (12 days). 2. 5/4-5/12/1954 (9 days). 3. 5/6-5/13/1989 (8 days). T-4. 5/8-5/14/1960 (7 days). T-4. 5/3-5/9/1929 (7 days). 6. 5/5-5/10/1947 (6 days). T-7. 5/1-5/5/1921 (5 days). T-7. 5/11-5/15/1878 (5 days). T-7. 5/1-5/5/1908 (5 days). T-10. 11 streaks of 4 days, most recently in 2005, 2002 and 1994 Some of these are part of longer streaks that started in April, but I’m only counting the May days in those streaks.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but that seems to indicate that September and December were 6(!) degrees warmer in Harrisburg from 2011-2020 than they were from 1981-1990.

Also appears NWS Pittsburgh has confirmed the first tornado of the year.

Quite possibly. Pittsburgh is another location where normal snowfall increased by several inches, and a fair portion of our snowfall is driven by the lakes. I’ll bet there are other more complex factors involved like storm tracks (that may also be affected by climate change).

2 active tornado warnings in PA now (I imagine for the same line at the border of PBZ/CTP areas, one issued by PBZ and the other by CTP).

Looks like the new normals were released today. Temps seem to be about half a degree or so higher for most parts of the year, and our new normal snowfall increased by over 2 inches to 44.1.

Very trading.

You’re right, model trends seem to show this pattern being more persistent. GFS run after run with little or no 70s after today through the end of its run and the Euro doesn’t seem to want to bounce things back to seasonable mid-next week anymore either. I’d also rather have seasonably cool than unseasonably cold in May - unless we get at least a trace of snow, which doesn’t seem likely.

That’s what I noticed. The current streak and the 1887 one are the only ones that have survived April.

Second one is (was?) a PDS. In a slight risk area.

You were on the shortlist of people I thought would appreciate that portion of that post. But in all seriousness, if my contribution to this forum on a dreary, rainy Monday in my locale is going to be a sad personal post in a thread that’s taken a dark turn, then I have to find an opportunity to inject a little bit of humor. It’s my coping mechanism, I’d rather be laughing than crying.

My wife and sister (different people, I’m not from Alabama) are both prone to panic attacks. My sister’s are PTSD related from witnessing a gun-related suicide as it unfolded and I know she has the heart rate stuff, my wife’s are mostly just paralyzing fear and anxiety without really a known cause.

And a resting heart rate of 36? But all jokes aside, that sounds horrific and it would seem there’s a solid chance the two are related.