TimB

The hail loophole might be your only hope. Of course to get hail you need precip.

Actually looking at the June low maxes for Pittsburgh, I’m most impressed by the high of 54 on 6/21/1992 (but don’t remember it).

Apparently Pittsburgh topped out at 47 on 6/1/1910 so it wouldn’t be unprecedented. MDT’s record low max in June is 53 (6/2/1907).

I fully expect a GFS run at some point that suggests highs in the 40s in PA in June at hour 372 or something.

Awhile back we were inside the 540 line on the GFS in Western PA this upcoming weekend.

Not too worried yet, a 1.5” deficit is one that could easily be made up in one event.

I think we got enough rain last weekend to head off any potential drought concerns as long as this doesn’t persist for too long.

Yeah, my memory of humidity is purely anecdotal. The other thing here is lack of rain. We are currently on day 7 without measurable rainfall, with a solid chance of at least doubling that before our next good chance of rain. I would imagine that’s pretty uncommon in spring.

Warmth has always been here in May and September but I’m thinking more about the humidity - I feel like the 80s in the summer-adjacent months used to be a lot more comfortable with dews in the 40s and 50s. I don’t remember these times being humid periods with dewpoints mostly in the 60s prior to the last few years, but that could be memory being weird.

Days upon days of temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s well before May is even over, and lasting well into September is our new normal around here.

Exactly. That’s all I’m going to say on that matter.

As a Pittsburgh person, I only intend to make this one post in this subforum, but I’ll just say I would guess there is a large overlap between the “businesses shouldn’t be allowed to refuse to serve people without masks” crowd and the “business owners should be able to make whatever business decisions they want on just about any other matter” crowd. It’s kind of hypocritical, and I would suggest that people who don’t want to respect an individual business owner’s decision consider that.

That said, it looks like CTP has bumped precip chances into the 50/50 category a lot of places. PBZ doesn’t have rain in the grids outside the mountains.

Upstream, it was entirely virga. Not a drop of rain.

You definitely have a better shot than we do tomorrow. Interestingly, NWS Pittsburgh is carrying 30-40% chances of precip imby every day this upcoming week except tomorrow and Tuesday. But we’re not cut off from the moisture feed as badly as you all are.

Out in Pittsburgh we are running a -7.4 anomaly so far, which I have no doubt will be mostly erased if not completely. So I’m very certain MDT will finish the month above normal. But the bigger story is precip chances for the next 10 days for just about anywhere in this state seem to be disappearing rapidly, to almost zero on the Euro.

Indeed, we probably have to average at least 80/60 the rest of the month to get there. I wouldn’t rule it out, but it really would require no cold air to break through the ridge until we hit June.

My opinion based on a lot of the models is yes, we have a solid shot to finish the month above average. I think the period coming up will be very warm, probably upwards of 85 at least once or twice if not more. There is some indication of a possibility of a cooler period after that, but the GFS waffles on that every single run. That would be almost a carbon copy of the end of last May and cause us to fall a bit short of the averages. Which is incredible that we’re even talking about finishing the month above normal considering the normals for May went up by over a degree and we’re over 7 degrees below the new normal at the halfway point.

And yet it looks like they’re going to get their long, hot, brutal summer they wanted, starting before Memorial Day yet again.

Actually 37, but who’s counting?

Precip trended down yet again on both the CMC and the Euro. The thing I’m not liking is the runs of the GFS that seem to bring a reprieve in the heat are 18z and 6z runs, while the 0z and 12z always seem to have wall to wall heat and humidity from the time it arrives through the end of the run.

18z GFS is better and no sustained heat

Don’t get me wrong, if it’s going to be hot I could live with the lower humidity levels the CMC wants to give us, but not at the expense of rain. We’ve done a bit better with rain out here - over an inch on Mother’s Day - but I think a dry spell would hurt pretty badly and maybe set the stage for a bad summer with completely unfettered heat.

I suspect the CMC is plagued with the same issue that has been haunting it all week: lack of moisture. Nearly all of PA has less than 0.1” QPF for the entirety of its run. But the Euro is trending that way too.

I’m not rooting for it, but if we get to July and it starts to look like my options are sweating in 97 degree heat or sweating in 100 degree heat, I might be right there with you cheering it on.