TimB

My opinion based on a lot of the models is yes, we have a solid shot to finish the month above average. I think the period coming up will be very warm, probably upwards of 85 at least once or twice if not more. There is some indication of a possibility of a cooler period after that, but the GFS waffles on that every single run. That would be almost a carbon copy of the end of last May and cause us to fall a bit short of the averages. Which is incredible that we’re even talking about finishing the month above normal considering the normals for May went up by over a degree and we’re over 7 degrees below the new normal at the halfway point.

And yet it looks like they’re going to get their long, hot, brutal summer they wanted, starting before Memorial Day yet again.

Actually 37, but who’s counting?

Precip trended down yet again on both the CMC and the Euro. The thing I’m not liking is the runs of the GFS that seem to bring a reprieve in the heat are 18z and 6z runs, while the 0z and 12z always seem to have wall to wall heat and humidity from the time it arrives through the end of the run.

18z GFS is better and no sustained heat

Don’t get me wrong, if it’s going to be hot I could live with the lower humidity levels the CMC wants to give us, but not at the expense of rain. We’ve done a bit better with rain out here - over an inch on Mother’s Day - but I think a dry spell would hurt pretty badly and maybe set the stage for a bad summer with completely unfettered heat.

I suspect the CMC is plagued with the same issue that has been haunting it all week: lack of moisture. Nearly all of PA has less than 0.1” QPF for the entirety of its run. But the Euro is trending that way too.

I’m not rooting for it, but if we get to July and it starts to look like my options are sweating in 97 degree heat or sweating in 100 degree heat, I might be right there with you cheering it on.

You can only get away with that in CMC Horrorland where it’s 98 degrees in Eastern PA on May 23rd.

You won’t hear a peep of disagreement from me on two of the three...

Dear God, I hope the CMC is badly wrong about next weekend.

Not liking her comparisons to 1995 and 2020 in particular. Not because I think she’s wrong, but because both were summers from hell. It’s reassuring that she didn’t throw 1988 and 2012 in there too.

(Yes, I know it’s completely unrealistic for any model to show lows in the mid-upper 70s in PA in May.) But the models did yet another 180. I’ll bet the 12z GFS is warm and the Euro and CMC go back to cold. One other note: last night’s 18z GFS had “gates of hell” heat way too close for comfort at the very end of its run (99 in DC).

For entertainment purposes only, here’s where the CMC says things stand at 8am Sunday 5/23:

I hope you’re not saying that seeing people in masks will trigger PTSD in people who have been traumatized by this pandemic, the way a severe thunderstorm warning triggers PTSD in those who have been traumatized by tornadoes, or hearing fireworks triggers PTSD in veterans who served in wars. One of these things is not like the others.

I’m trying to tread carefully here, but there is a significant subset of the population that thinks businesses should be able to make a business decision to pick and choose when they don’t want to serve a customer for a multitude of reasons, but when that reason is covid vaccine status they cry foul.

If the 12z GFS/0z every model but the GFS is correct I’ll get too hot in a mask, but if the 0z GFS/12z every model but the GFS is correct I might need the mask for warmth.

I take back everything I said about the Euro. Holy ****, that’s a dramatic shift.

Sure enough, the backdoor cold front wins on the Euro too. Perhaps more decisively than on the others.

Ah, you’re right. I was confusing the relatively cooler 60s east with the misery to come for the entire eastern half of the country that the GFS depicts after the cooler airmass is pushed away. Obviously I’m rooting for that back door front to go as far west as it possibly can.

DPs on the cold side of the back door front drop into the 30s south (40s on my side of the mountains) and upper 20s north on the CMC.

Ukie looks to be in that camp as well. GFS suggested that with the 0z (and the 18z and 6z, to the extent that those count), but blasts all kinds of heat and humidity into PA from the Midwest with a very persistent ridge on the 12z. But the 12z GFS yesterday was almost a carbon copy of today’s run. Will be interesting to see what pattern the Euro suggests.

Just kidding. 12z proves the CMC is just as drunk as the GFS.

Maybe it’s just easier and more convenient to be critical of the GFS because my tax dollars weren’t just spent to “upgrade” the Euro to a new version that seems to perform worse than the old one.

Oh, it has been. The only difference is it doesn’t completely flip on the large scale pattern beyond day 7 seemingly every run.