TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Still no indication that heat really wins on the GFS or any other model. This time it’s the 0z that has a little more of it, for those who believe in that stuff.
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As far as the heat in other parts of the country that we may or may not see in these parts, the NWS currently has an uninterrupted area of heat advisories and warnings stretching from the Canadian border in Montana to the Gulf coast in Mississippi, including all or parts of 16 states.
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Still gets swept away later in fantasy land.
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And it’s the one from the midwest more so than the Atlantic one.
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I went to Michigan two days after my second jab when they were spiking and even ate in a restaurant (twice!) and didn’t get covid. But that’s certainly not reason not to be cautious, and I fully realize I was lucky.
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Well said. I think we all hope/wish this was over. Unfortunately it’s not. A lot of us will probably get covid at some point. For those of us who are vaccinated and/or young and healthy, we can hope it’ll be a mild illness (though not a guarantee). For those who are not vaccinated, a risk is being taken. I worry about what the future holds with all of this.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My sympathies, @Ahoff. Just looked at the 5-min obs at KPIT and I don’t see anything above 86 as of 3pm. -
Yeah, there’s the whole timing of soundings/balloon launches thing. But if the initial data doesn’t change much, then why does the model result sometimes change wildly? That’s what I’m confused about.
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Most of CTP, unfortunately.
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I don’t buy them either, but devil’s advocate and all. And yes, I do think the two overnight GFS runs were almost identical.
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God, I hope buffets are largely a casualty of covid. Places where you can not only increase your risk of getting covid, but increase your risk of death if you do get covid.
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Also, if the CMC puts any ridge close to us the first weekend of August, it won’t be the Atlantic ridge but the Midwest one.
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Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.
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Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer.
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If this sets up in winter:
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8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location:
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That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain.
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By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get.
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Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.
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Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned.
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The fact that anyone is talking about any fair other than the Pillow carnival right now is blasphemy! (but yes, late summer to early fall)
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Ah, I only read “medical issue.” Didn’t read too deeply into it. Unless the virus particles landed awkwardly in her lungs, it can’t be covid.
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The way I’m reading it, could it be covid?
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It’s looking pretty consistent. I don’t think MDT can pull it off, but PIT may squeak out its 4th negative temp departure month of 2021, aided of course by the new normals.
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I just looked at the 0z and it is very similar to the 6z. If that trough hangs on as long as depicted, I’m not sure I would complain about a few days of 90s following it.
