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TimB

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  1. TimB
    65/53 at 11am in the ‘burgh. I know you guys are a bit warmer than that but still good enough for July.
  2. TimB
    Bump.
  3. TimB
    I almost forgot: the peak of daily mean temperatures per climo is in GFS range!
  4. TimB
    The thing that especially seems to be a meteorological unknown is the whole rapid intensification thing. May not apply with this storm because we’re early in the season and there should be a fair amount of land interaction before it gets to Florida. Still, there’s definitely a decent chance this makes landfall in Florida and is at hurricane strength when it does so. Also, we’re running several days ahead of even last year’s schedule with the timing of the “E” storm.
  5. TimB
    I mean the NHC’s 5am forecast never had it reaching hurricane intensity through 5 days. The CMC might also be of interest, it never puts Elsa into the Gulf at all and runs it just off the east coast before landfall in SC.
  6. TimB
    It seems to happen so fast these last couple years.
  7. TimB
    I would guess that the Europe event was fairly similar in magnitude/return interval to this one in the Northwest, but I haven’t looked at the data.
  8. TimB
    Not quite as anomalous on a day to day level, but I think you have to give a nod to Phoenix’s 2020 summer.
  9. TimB
    I forgot about the December 2015 event. I’d be surprised if it would be considered as anomalous as the others, but it speaks volumes that we now have the bar set at a level where that event can be forgotten when thinking about ridiculous warmth. I think we were +12 at my location for the month. The thing that stood out about the March 2012 event was that locations were breaking high temperature records at midnight, and I believe even once or twice there was a location whose low temperature for a day broke the previous record high.
  10. TimB
    Here’s the thing. The area affected by this heatwave is about 1/360 of the earth’s land area (I used the area of Washington and Oregon as an estimate - I know there were parts of Canada affected too, so that’s probably a lowball estimate). But for the sake of argument, let’s say this was a 50,000 year event on average. If you divide the earth into 360 equal parcels of land and OR/WA is one of them, you would expect one of these parcels to experience a 1-in-50,000 year event about once every 50,000/360 = 140 years. But I feel like I’ve read in this thread that the Siberia event last year was also of similar magnitude (and did someone say the March 2012 event in the Midwest?). So instead of once every 140 years, we’ve now had it happen to 3 of these 360 parcels of land in 9 years. That’s statistically significant and a strong indicator that the dice are loaded.
  11. TimB
    First July day since 2018 that failed to reach 80 at MDT. Now there’s a stat.
  12. TimB
    That’s almost certainly not worthy of being referenced yet, but regardless of whether or not it verifies, I happened to notice that frame when scanning the models this afternoon. The temperature at Las Vegas at 5am on that frame is 99F.
  13. TimB
    ...and never really blasts us with a ridge of any longevity or magnitude until late in the run.
  14. TimB
    I did see that. Still shoves it away before it gets much rain into PA but much closer.
  15. TimB
    Interestingly enough, up until last year we had gone 85 years without recording 2” of snow on Christmas Day itself. We do get a lot of those. It’s gone rather quickly, and this past February’s 3 weeks of snow cover is definitely an anomaly here. But yeah it’s a totally different climate from yours in winter (probably hence the reason we have separate threads for different regions of the state).
  16. TimB
    That’s the highest 1 day total (23.6”). There were 1950 and 1890 storms that had slightly higher storm totals. Highest seasonal total was 82” in 1950-51. But we get nickel and dimed a lot more than you do with the lake effect and all.
  17. TimB
    As does everyone. Like I said, if we have actual snow in Pittsburgh to talk about in December I’ll find myself there. Lol. Edit: scratch that. It doesn’t even have to be actual snow. Digital snow is enough to talk about.
  18. TimB
    The Western PA folk seem to mostly post on here only in winter, so that’s up to Bubbler. Hopefully we’ll have actual snow in Pittsburgh to talk about in our own thread in December.
  19. TimB
    It’s been an active few days of weather too, with rain and storms and (hopefully) MDT’s hottest days of the summer.
  20. TimB
    By the way, that data I posted on Tuesday was on page 24 of this thread. We’re now on 37...
  21. TimB
    That’s like people saying Barry Bonds hit 762 career home runs.
  22. TimB
    The hot last two days of June allowed you to move past 1925, 2005, and 2010 and go from 6th to 3rd, but still a good bit short of 1943.
  23. TimB
    If you don’t defend the towns on the US 6 corridor, who will?
  24. TimB
    Looks like MDT should fall short of 80 and end any chance of getting there all 31 days of July like last year. PIT will too.
  25. TimB
    The 18z will have highs in the 60s south and a 540 line somewhere around Potter County.
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