TimB

The severe thunderstorm watch out there might be the lowest probabilities I’ve ever seen on a watch. Barring something strange, MDT’s high should come out to 98. Only one 5-minute obs of 99 at 3:10.

And just like that, PIT will finish June with above normal rainfall.

That is absolutely true. It sniffs out any hint of heat and turns it into what looks like days and days of misery if it were to verify.

What was it forecasting for a low this morning at MDT? 87?

CMC looked hot too. I don’t think the GFS is winning this one.

Soon enough Duck won’t even be the greatest QB in Steelers history with his initials.

The Duck Hodges of weather stations.

Nearest PWS to me is showing 70.5. Yes, the thunderstorms have arrived.

Nothing significant yet imby, but I think I’m about to get a decent storm. No severe warning for here, which is good but there was one south of the city a bit ago.

Yep, said hurricane then slowly runs up the east coast into the Mid-Atlantic before going out to sea. Meanwhile, a ridge builds into the plains and eventually sends temps in the Dakotas toward 120, but a corresponding weak trough develops for us.

Quite the interesting GFS run beyond the weekend too. Leaves that system sitting off the coast for days and keeping cool flow across much of PA while building a massive ridge across the middle of the country that never really gets here before the end of the run.

Meh, probabilities on the watch are low-ish. But lots of rain in areas that get several rounds. Then again, warning for the south hills at the moment.

I’ve often wondered the same thing. Probably some proprietary blend of models, maybe we can find an insider to leak the info.

I’m a little late on the draw here, but:

It was a long list of ridiculously hot temperatures, we’ll forgive you.

Yeah, that’s our data, haha. MDT is at 75.1 (I assume that’s a typo on your part). Should go up to about 75.5 if today’s average is somewhere around 86, which cross-referenced with what I posted yesterday would be #3 behind 1994 and some other year much longer ago. Hard to believe that being just 3 degrees above normal in June is top 3, so maybe I’m wrong.

@Ahoffseems to be the epitome of a seasons in seasons guy. I like below average whenever we can get it, but to each his own.

Indeed, mine is certainly is cool with me having hobbies and interests, I don’t want to convey the impression that it’s an unhealthy marriage where I’m not allowed to have hobbies. But at the end of the day, if there’s an unspoken limit on how much I can spend on said hobbies, I’m going to defer to her. But yeah, she couldn’t care less about weather (beyond the mundane things like “can we walk the dog at lunchtime” or “will it rain today?”) or my spending copious amounts of time looking at model runs and posting on weather forums. Will do, thank you for the advice. My idea is more or less spend a small amount with the initial investment then if I decide I want something fancy 2 or 5 or 10 years from now, I can re-evaluate.

My wife would divorce me if I spent a bunch of money on a weather station, so I’m shopping on a budget. LOL.

PBZ’s discussion says there’s a cap but as the front slides closer that will erode the cap and trigger storms. They’re focusing on the area just south of I-80, so it sounds like the better chance of thunderstorms, some severe, would be north. I’m thinking disorganized for sure, might not be a QLCS (squall line) like the last event. I don’t know, I’m hardly an expert. Just kinda taught myself what some of these terms mean after living in the Midwest for 7 years.

So you’d recommend for someone in the market for a weather station?

Slight risk was expanded SW on the 13z SPC update to include most of PBZ forecast area. From SPC discussion: “Tropospheric flow fields will be progressively weaker with west-southwest extent across the region, yielding a transition from multicells to pulse modes. Nevertheless, moderate buoyancy is expected south of ongoing convection. With scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage, damaging winds due to wet microbursts are anticipated this afternoon. The transition from weakly organized to disorganized activity should occur in the Upper OH Valley vicinity.”

0:1. BUT, we’re less than 16 weeks away from the date that we know measurable snow can fall in these parts. Looks like the last measurable snow at MDT was 128 days ago. And 128 days from now would put us at Nov. 5. It’s at least possible (maybe not likely yet) that you’re past the halfway point. But not me. My last measurable snow was 70 days ago, and I don’t think I’ll be seeing any on 9/8.

I believe your post itself shows it as being in Washington. The specific locations (Ardenvoir and Peshastin) appear to be located in central Washington near Wenatchee.

A fair number of people who follow NWS Pittsburgh on Facebook seem to enjoy this. The trick is to sink tens of thousands of dollars into a pool in your backyard, I think.