TimB

CMC gives MDT nearly 3 inches of rain on the 4th and Frederick, MD at least twice that.

Entertainment purposes portion of the 12z GFS brings the troughing back for more.

As a man who loves his beer, I approve this message.

Fully agree on pools and boats, but not 100% sure I’ll never own a camper.

That’s the way to do it. I don’t actually wish I had a pool, but I wish I was close enough friends with someone who has one that I could use anytime.

I wish I had a pool, I’d be taking the afternoon off work today and hanging out in the pool the rest of the day.

From the NWS forecast discussion: “Additional cloud cover due to the increased southerly and warm moist flow will keep most temps below 90 today.” But there’s that 86 at noon. We gained 6 degrees on our noon temp yesterday.

84 now, 2 degrees ahead of yesterday.

I’m in the same boat, though my WFH job is approaching it’s busiest season now so I won’t have as much time to look at the models soon.

Doing quality control for the models is a dirty job, but someone’s gotta do it.

They’ve already revised the 90s out of their zones for Allegheny county (except in UHI land) for both today and tomorrow.

The wildcard is cloud cover, and I feel like the HRRR underdoes that sometimes.

That said, PBZ isn’t buying the HRRR mid-90s hype. They actually adjusted their p&c at the airport DOWN to 88 for both today and tomorrow.

Haven’t invested in my weather station just yet, so I won’t know if my backyard hits 90 today. I realize that there are plenty of people that get irked by getting 89’d but it’s not like there’s some sort of curse that prevents us from getting to 90. But I hate getting 33’d in May or October so I understand the feeling.

One other point here: is it that far-fetched to believe that there could conceivably come a day hundreds or thousands of years from now when weather forecasting could advance to the point where they could say something like “you’ll get exactly 5.3 inches of snow a week from now and not a tenth more or less” and be completely accurate every time? That would be good news for the general public but would suck a lot of the fun out of this hobby for people like us. As for KPIT hitting 90 today, I hope it doesn’t, but I kind of have to hope it does so I don’t eat crow back on my home thread.

RE: this point, yes it’s weird when the GFS shows a high of 50 on D10 one run and 80 the next, but to me that just goes to show the practical limits we as a human race have on weather forecasting. The uncertainty is part of the fun.

The GFS and CMC show some crazy stuff sometimes, but I no longer see them as inferior.

Things have gone back to normal, back to rooting against the Euro.

I’ll also add that it’s probably dependent on who is doing the forecasting. I would guess that the NWS is a lot less likely to pull the trigger and forecast 90 when it’s going to be close but they’re only confident in 89, but local news media outlets will forecast 90 in more of those situations. Just a hunch.

Maybe give him and these politicians an all-expenses-paid trip to the Tri-Cities area in Washington state for the next few days and put them up in a place without a/c and then have them report back to us with their thoughts on climate change.

It’s an interesting point, definitely something I’d be curious about. Not that such statistics probably exist or are kept, but I’d be intrigued to see a statistical analysis of where our highs typically end up on days when we’re forecast and/or modeled to hit exactly 90, and see if that average is lower or higher or about 90 exactly.

True, I suppose technically there is an invisible force that makes it more likely to get to 89 than 90. That invisible force is probability. But I wouldn’t say we underperform any more often than we overperform either.

Well yes, but then again it would make sense that when the normals are 82 or 83, then 88 would be more common than 89, which would be more common than 90, which would be more common than 91, etc., right?

We hit 90 many, many times last summer. It looks like 17 times to be exact (including one in early June). We topped out at 88/89 a total of 13 times. Which is more typical? As I’ve said before, if we get to a day where my options are 99 and drenched in sweat or 100 and drenched in sweat, I’ll be right there with you rooting for it.

Indeed, 88 today at PIT. AGC also topped out at 88, so a slight underperformance at both.