TimB

Don’t your motorcycle insurance rates increase every time a motorcyclist without a helmet splatters his brains all over the highway?

Tornado warning for Cranberry. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southwestern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... North central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Cranberry, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Seven Fields around 255 PM EDT. Gibsonia and Mars around 300 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Callery, Valencia, Warrendale, Pine Township and Bradfordwoods.

Watch issued at 2:20. 70/20 wind probs.

Isn’t it satisfying when you just know without looking at someone’s social media profile that they’re going to have something like this on it, but you look anyway and your intuition is confirmed correct? Glad everyone in the Midwest appears to have survived yesterday. Scary stuff.

Yesterday it was a 946mb monster slamming into the Texas coast about halfway between Houston and Mexico.

GFS has been consistently advertising a tropical system somewhere in the gulf and the remnants seem to make it up here on some of the runs.

Yeah doesn’t look like a widespread rain event anywhere.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Western New York Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Southwest Virginia Much of West Virginia Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the afternoon across the watch area, with the potential for scattered severe storms. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.

SPC upgraded you guys to enhanced risk on their 1630z update, so every degree warmer increases the danger.

Here’s a question along those lines: don’t some players’ contracts have some sort of provision written into them where they can be punished for engaging in certain risky activities (anything from riding a motorcycle without a helmet to playing pick-up basketball), where if the player is injured doing said activity and unable to perform his job as a result, the team can cut pay/fine him? Are these provisions okay? What if said risky activity is not getting vaccinated? (I understand that most players got their current contract long before the covid vaccine existed, and they’d be free not to sign a contract with such a provision, but would a player turn down millions for something as simple as that?)

Ah, but there’s the rub. Our climo doesn’t seem to allow for many days in that 85-95 range with comfortable dews once you get past about mid-June. Maybe a few in the low end of that temperature range.

As a Steelers fan, I’m going back to 2006 here, when a player’s personal decision became a liability to the team. Is Cole Beasley’s decision not to get the vaccine all that different from Ben Roethlisberger’s decision to ride a motorcycle without a helmet?

100% agree with the semi normal thing. But let’s go back to my scenario: if you were a Bills fan (or a Bills owner or GM or coach) and the team made the Super Bowl, but Cole Beasley and a few others caught covid and couldn’t play, and the team lost as a result, would you be outraged with: 1) Beasley and those others for not getting vaccinated 2) the NFL for not letting them play while having covid or 3) no one, because sh*t happens

That would be a very Bills thing to happen, going 19-0 and then losing the Super Bowl because Cole Beasley and others weren’t available to play because they didn’t get vaccinated and caused an outbreak among the team. If I were a Bills fan and that happened, I’d be livid and not spend another dime on the team until they got rid of those players, but I’m sure anti-vax fans would see it differently.

Remember the last time his name was mentioned in here?

Indeed, hoping for a 4th of July weekend everyone can enjoy. We deserve it after the last 15 months.

0z run had a ridge that looked like it meant business.

Tuesday maybe, if we’re below 70 by midnight Monday night. Looks like we’ll bounce back closer to average pretty quick. But yeah, looks like chances of hitting 90 in June are on life support.

Unapologetic card-carrying coldmeister here (obviously). Be interesting to see if that changes as I get older.

They seem to enjoy their summers with wall-to-wall gates of hell heat, so it’s exciting when any model shows that, whether it’s 2 days out or 25.

GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35.

Fortunately we get about 60 model runs for that to change, and we know for at least the next 5 or 6 days each run of the GFS will alternate between that scenario and a massive heat wave and everything in between.

I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100.

@Bubbler86did you see the 6z GFS’s take on the 4th of July? Won’t post because it’s both fantasy land and blasphemy.

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.