TimB

Looks like a nice solid garden variety thunderstorm coming through. Hoping it doesn’t miss me. Edit: it got me Also officially hit 88 today, warmest day of the year so far.

Anything more than a week out is just for entertainment and discussion purposes, but I’d be shocked if I got 4” of rain between now and the end of this work week.

Can’t post it either, plus the 6-10 and 8-14 day precip maps from NWS CPC look ominous.

How ‘bout that CMC rain map?

Well yeah, Syracuse gets 3x the snow we do and Burlington gets double our snow. Much easier to get colder when your climo allows you to get and maintain snow cover, which we all know happens very rarely in Pittsburgh except for this past February.

Feels like 112 would be warning numbers.

What, are you saying people who spend a lot of time on weather forums aren’t getting it anytime they want it and then some?

Burlington hit 95 and Syracuse 93.

I didn’t know that either about the dewpoint at that location. I can’t imagine I’ve ever looked at any observation from Moorhead, MN before Friday. I know some types of weather observing stations struggle mightily in lower humidity environments and understate humidity and dewpoints. Could this be it?

All 3 of your favorite places that get hotter than Pittsburgh on a regular basis sit at 400 feet or lower, while KPIT is at like 1200 feet. All 3 are at least 5 degrees ahead of us at this juncture and probably have less cloud cover at the moment than we do. I’d be surprised if today tops out even a degree higher than yesterday. Edit: KSYR is reporting mostly cloudy. So maybe not correct on the cloud cover. Late afternoon update: Syracuse has reached 91, Burlington 94. Temps stalled at Portland so they didn’t get to 90 but are still ahead of us.

Moorhead, MN - directly adjacent to Fargo. KFAR was 86 at that hour with a dewpoint of 58. The temperature of 88 may have been valid, but I’m strongly questioning the dewpoint of 48. I noticed their dewpoints on Thursday afternoon were at 19 when KFAR’s were at 50, and it looks like yesterday afternoon their dewpoints were at 34 when KFAR’s were close to 60. I know heat bursts can do this, but this ain’t it.

Syracuse did hit 93 today.

PIT 86 today, Syracuse 93, Burlington 88, Portland 86.

W/NW flow? I’m honestly not sure.

This is the thing. International Falls and Bismarck reaching temperatures weeks earlier than they ever have before is clearly much less affected by UHI and more by AGW, but it affects much fewer people so no one notices. There’s really no good answer here. I’m afraid so, but even then, there will be plenty of “what about 1988” and “what about 1936”. Can’t win.

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

A nice cool weekend would be ideal for that. Beyond next weekend, the GFS seems to go back and forth. One run it’s hot every day, the next run it’s cool every day. And of course there’s quite a range in QPF between the models. Comparing the 0z runs, Euro gives me 5.1” over the next 10 days, GFS 1.5” and CMC 1.0”.

Tomorrow is probably our only shot out here. I am a little worried though, I’ve been following the heat that’s been blasting the north central US and it’s smashing daily records that were set in 1988 in many places. Rain over the next week would go a long way towards making sure we stay far, far away from 1988 territory in the weeks to come.

As noted earlier, the Bismarck high represents a temperature that was reached two weeks earlier than it has ever been reached in recorded history. As I said earlier this spring, it was only a matter of time before an eye-popping statistic like this was recorded in the Midwest US.

The question is, does it translate to extreme heat in eastern portions of the region the way it did in 1988? I’m guessing the drought east of the Mississippi was much more severe in 1988 than it is now.

I was late to the party so I don’t know what all transpired in the first year or so of this thread, but aside from that benches-clearing brawl we had back in April, I thought it’s been fairly civil.

Also, most of these sites in the north central US are absolutely obliterating daily records by 6-10 degrees. Records that in many cases were set in....... 1988.

Looks like they’re at 103 now, which is by far the earliest in the summer they’ve ever hit 103 (previous was 6/18). International Falls is now at 96, which is their earliest 96 degree reading by a week (6/11).

I lived in AZ for a few years (not Phoenix, that’s too hot) but even 100-105 feels pretty decent at least in the shade when the humidity is almost nonexistent. It’s amazing how much of a difference it makes. I’ll take that over even a temperature of 75 and a dewpoint of 70.

Humidity seems high for the most part, though maybe we’ll get a few days here and there where dewpoints drop into the 50s. That’s about the best we can really ask for in June anyway.