TimB

Wouldn’t it be nice if our climo allowed for copious stratiform rain in summer?

Not that it absolves the forecast of any incorrectness, because the percentages still don’t work out in the favor of 60%, but isn’t it (percentage chance that precip will form)*(percentage of the area that will see measurable precip)? So if the met is 80% confident that precip will form, and if it does, it will cover 50% of the area, 80%*50% = 40% chance of rain?

There seems to be a lot of broad-brushing, especially on the forecasting side, and especially with the NWS (and that’s probably understandable given their wider audience). That said, I would guess that the issue on the model side has something to do with resolution, but like @Bubbler86said, even the hi-res models only seem to handle it marginally better.

I appreciate the hell out of anyone who enjoys snow (and other weather) as much as I do. I thought I was just weird, then I found these forums and discovered that I’m still weird, but not alone.

Well I see how little the Western PA folk post on here after the snow stops flying but I need my weather fix somehow. (And occasionally BSing about baseball and other topics.) Gotta also give @paweather credit for talking about snow daily while knowing it won’t be happening anytime soon.

If I had the choice between dying and spending an eternity in hell or dying and spending an eternity in La Crosse, Wisconsin, it would be a toss up. (Kidding, at least a little)

I mean LSE airport looks like this: Doesn’t exactly look like UHI hell to me.

Indeed, typos can be quite entertaining. But in seriousness, with apologies to @Mount Joy Snowman, I’m not relying on him or any other poster on a weather forum to determine whether or not the weather is going to kill me today.

Meh, it’s a weather forum, not life or death (for most of us).

On the subject of heat, MDT reaches 100 fairly regularly, right? Like a 5-10 year event?

You get a break from it on Friday and mid-next week.

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

I’d trade all 3 midweek days for a Saturday without question. I do like the 6z GFS “hurricane remnants mitigate the heat” solution in the longer term.

@Bubbler86looks like the models are going to screw both Western and Central PA out of a nice pleasant weekend. I knew it was marginal at best for me, but had hope for Central PA.

They just won’t use ‘em again, like the 2020 hurricane season. Maybe they’ll make an auxiliary list of human names.

Should we rethink that with this Delta variant? Is this going to screw us over from traveling internationally, say, by early 2022 at the latest? Should we be worried about another surge of covid in the US (both in terms of new restrictions and in terms of the human cost of a surge in covid)? Is this just fear mongering? Inquiring minds want to know.

That’s true, wasn’t thinking about the lakes in Madison having such a big effect but Mendota is a rather large lake. I suppose the question with La Crosse would be, where were official observations taken prior to the airport? That would shed a lot of light on whether this past week is an alarming, unprecedented anomaly or just a hot week.

That’s quite interesting. None of those are particularly large airports, with the exception of MSP. As UHI effects go, I don’t know much about La Crosse or Duluth, but I know UW-Madison is basically downtown while the airport is way out on the east side, so it’s interesting that the airport would run so much warmer, especially being the small regional airport that it is. With that being said, it does appear that records at La Crosse airport date back to 1938, so I would say it’s valid to compare any data from then to now. But I’m wondering if it’s maybe more of a geographical thing than a UHI thing, at least in that case.

I mean I suppose when the old blood doesn’t circulate as well as it once did, maybe 90 feels like 70. I spent enough time in my grandparents’ houses when they were alive for that to seem like an educated guess.

How do millions of people live like that? I’ll never understand.

Currently 94/65 at MCO.

Warmest on record at MSP by 2.4 degrees 2nd warmest at Milwaukee and Green Bay, WI (1925) 5th warmest at Madison, WI (warmest since 1963) Warmest at La Crosse, WI by nearly 2 degrees Warmest at Duluth, MN by 2.7 degrees All of these periods of record date back to the 1800s. The last two entries on this list I would imagine are significantly less prone to UHI than the others, and they completely rewrote the record books by a huge margin. It’s not all UHI, and I would argue it’s not even primarily UHI.

I can live with this GFS run.

Just looked at the data up there. We’ll see how the rest of June plays out but there’s at least solid potential for a truly alarming record to be set at MSP re: mean temperature for the month of June.