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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    I’m running a much closer 2nd in my own.
  2. TimB
    I see I’m an extremely distant second.
  3. TimB
    83 I believe. So we’re talking about 10 degrees below average, but if you consider the number of days that are 10 above average, it’s still pretty crazy.
  4. TimB
    I would imagine actually occurring in that region in July would be extremely rare. Being shown on the GFS, maybe not quite as rare.
  5. TimB
    18z has not one but two snow producing systems in northeastern Canada.
  6. TimB
    Today has been fantastic. Should be the second July day in a row that didn’t reach 75. We haven’t had a July day with a high below 75 since 7/2/16.
  7. TimB
    Not that it matters much from my standpoint. I get just as much done at work now as I did before I discovered the existence of weather forums. But the logo will be back, it’s just white on a white background.
  8. TimB
    Much sleeker on the iPhone. Plus the added bonus that there’s no longer a big blaring “AMERICAN WEATHER” banner at the top so if and when I’m back in an office it won’t be obvious that I’m spending time on weather forums while I’m on the clock.
  9. TimB
    That’s all we can ask for: another path to some more days like these (though I did narrowly escape a nice rain shower while walking the dog at lunchtime).
  10. TimB
    I don’t see much I don’t like in these model runs, to be honest.
  11. TimB
    Those 40s get pretty close to me. But that ridge is going to swallow us up before it’s all said and done.
  12. TimB
    What about the one showing MDT barely hitting 70 on Thursday?
  13. TimB
    Have to post the map.
  14. TimB
    I see snow...
  15. TimB
    65/53 at 11am in the ‘burgh. I know you guys are a bit warmer than that but still good enough for July.
  16. TimB
    Bump.
  17. TimB
    I almost forgot: the peak of daily mean temperatures per climo is in GFS range!
  18. TimB
    The thing that especially seems to be a meteorological unknown is the whole rapid intensification thing. May not apply with this storm because we’re early in the season and there should be a fair amount of land interaction before it gets to Florida. Still, there’s definitely a decent chance this makes landfall in Florida and is at hurricane strength when it does so. Also, we’re running several days ahead of even last year’s schedule with the timing of the “E” storm.
  19. TimB
    I mean the NHC’s 5am forecast never had it reaching hurricane intensity through 5 days. The CMC might also be of interest, it never puts Elsa into the Gulf at all and runs it just off the east coast before landfall in SC.
  20. TimB
    It seems to happen so fast these last couple years.
  21. TimB
    I would guess that the Europe event was fairly similar in magnitude/return interval to this one in the Northwest, but I haven’t looked at the data.
  22. TimB
    Not quite as anomalous on a day to day level, but I think you have to give a nod to Phoenix’s 2020 summer.
  23. TimB
    I forgot about the December 2015 event. I’d be surprised if it would be considered as anomalous as the others, but it speaks volumes that we now have the bar set at a level where that event can be forgotten when thinking about ridiculous warmth. I think we were +12 at my location for the month. The thing that stood out about the March 2012 event was that locations were breaking high temperature records at midnight, and I believe even once or twice there was a location whose low temperature for a day broke the previous record high.
  24. TimB
    Here’s the thing. The area affected by this heatwave is about 1/360 of the earth’s land area (I used the area of Washington and Oregon as an estimate - I know there were parts of Canada affected too, so that’s probably a lowball estimate). But for the sake of argument, let’s say this was a 50,000 year event on average. If you divide the earth into 360 equal parcels of land and OR/WA is one of them, you would expect one of these parcels to experience a 1-in-50,000 year event about once every 50,000/360 = 140 years. But I feel like I’ve read in this thread that the Siberia event last year was also of similar magnitude (and did someone say the March 2012 event in the Midwest?). So instead of once every 140 years, we’ve now had it happen to 3 of these 360 parcels of land in 9 years. That’s statistically significant and a strong indicator that the dice are loaded.
  25. TimB
    First July day since 2018 that failed to reach 80 at MDT. Now there’s a stat.
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