TimB

There were periods of all snow in the ‘burbs, but plenty of rain mixed in here too.

And the NWS rolled with an all snow forecast in the grids for Allegheny County as late as their late morning update.

Starting as mostly rain. NWS switching p-type to all snow looking like a bad call so far.

I get the impression that this should be a mostly snow event, but the main area of snow is still out in Ohio and should arrive sometime during the game.

I’m of the understanding that it did not snow downtown this morning either.

Elevation/UHI are significant between downtown and just about anywhere else here. It snowed for a couple hours here, 5 miles or so as the crow flies from downtown. No accumulation.

We’ve already exceeded my pessimistic 4-13 prediction.

Even if they get through next week and get to 6-3, the back end of the schedule goes: at Chargers at Bengals Ravens at Vikings Titans at Chiefs Browns at Ravens I think they probably beat the Vikings and win maybe 2 of the other 7 games to get to 9-8.

The game last night didn’t inspire much confidence that Sunday won’t be a Tomlin special.

I’m more referencing the MA discussion. Just went in and looked at it, so pessimistic as always.

I would think there’s more evidence towards “this winter is going to suck” vs. “this winter is going to be great”, but really it’s too early to call even at this juncture.

Think it’s almost a guarantee you’ll see your first flakes this year in the Burgh.

37-40, rain/snow showers. Less than pleasant.

*except when it comes to making a run at 100. Then it’s the Death Valley of Dauphin County.

Cherry picked, but first flakes seem pretty likely and who knows, maybe we can squeeze out a minor accumulation.

EC with the transient cool shot next weekend then ridging returns with a vengeance:

The 1879 one was 5 days from 11/1-11/5, but we could tie 1966 for 2nd.

Earliest date with 4 consecutive lows in the 20s: 1. 10/26-29/1976 (4 days) 2. 11/1-5/1879 (5 days) 3. 11/1-4/1954 (4 days) T-4. 11/3-6/2021 (4 days), 11/3-6/1951 (4 days), 11/3-6/1991 (4 days), 11/3-7/1966 (5 days) This is rarer than I would have thought.

Maybe. 18z trended colder.

Late week frontal passage on the EC looks good.

12z GFS and especially CMC both make @Itstrainingtime’s Steeler Sunday next weekend look pretty raw. CMC has the 18z temp at 31.

Pillow is the warmest in the afternoon and coldest in the morning, no wx station needed.

Just kidding anyway. Official NWS normals have the normal high/low/mean at 56/38/46. Not sure how that happens, as even (55.5+37.5)/2 = 46.5, which rounds up. So 48/26=37 gives us a -9 according to the official NWS report. So we’re at 134 days and counting without a negative double digit departure, and in the same timespan we’ve had 13 positive double digit departures (despite the normals rising decisively this year), and we likely won’t have one over the next 10 days or so at least. Edit: I looked at the official normals for today, it’s 55.6 and 37.5. (55.6+37.5)/2 = 46.55, which I would still round to 47 and not 46.

Next frame.