TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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But alas, he made the fatal error of posting a run of the Euro where he shouldn’t have.
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It only takes something similar to what happened in the Burgh with Guentzel putting the team on his back and a jump from 7th to 4th is doable. Not saying the Pens stay in contention all year, but climbing the standings can happen.
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@Bubbler86and I may be mortal enemies on the hockey side, but we can agree on one thing and thank the Philadelphia 75ers (see what I did there) for making the road a little easier for our teams.
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Good suggestion. Something tells me I might be hitting the bottle a lot this winter.
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I hope it does. There’s still time, right?
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The GFS was very consistent on the upcoming weekend’s extreme heat from about 12 days out so it didn’t completely fail.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Saw yesterday that the 90% probability of above normal temperatures area (which includes all of Western PA) on the CPC Day 8-14 outlook is the largest such area since 12/15/2015. We get this pattern in El Niño years, we get this pattern in La Niña years, so it’s almost like something else is driving it. But I’m not sure what it could be. -
Up and briefly a little bit less up.
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If you squint hard enough the decimal points disappear.
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Even that is probably too generous.
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Yinz most certainly did. Not so much for me, though that January was our last below normal temperature month before a string of 18 straight above normal.
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So we get these ridiculously torchy Decembers in El Niño years (2015) and in La Niña years (2021) and it’s confusing. It’s almost like the ENSO status isn’t the driving factor and there’s something else at play, but I can’t put my finger on what it is.
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What are your thoughts on the 0z NAM?
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The only thing I’ll say is it might be jumping the gun to think about how bad the upcoming pattern is when there are legitimate snow chances (albeit modest ones) in the near term.
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Wouldn’t say I’m upset at all. Just noting that this isn’t merely a garden-variety non-winter-like pattern in winter, the magnitude and duration is rare.
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18z GFS: ugly for the midweek storm, ugly for any backend snow potential this weekend, ugly for the long term. Also saw that the 90% above normal probability on the 8-14 day outlook I posted earlier is the largest 90% above normal area on an 8-14 day outlook since… December 15, 2015.
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Can confirm, it has been very gusty out here.
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Certainly does. That said, I look at those maps regularly, and it’s rare that there’s a 90% area anywhere near that big.
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So how about a 90% contour for above normal probabilities covering all or part of 25 states on the CPC Day 8-14 map?
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There’s always the hope against hope that maybe, just maybe the one run (so far) of the operational GFS that makes it cold from the 18th on (and differs wildly from the ensemble at this juncture) is right.
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Toss. 1” area needs to be about 10 miles north.
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So true. In this case, just a weak cutoff low that meanders through the southeast for days.
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That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:
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As strongly as I feel Ben needs to retire, it was nostalgic to see him play like his old self in the 4th quarter. We won’t see that many more times.
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It’s a cruel world we live in, where both El Niño and La Niña happen to create garbage winters in our region.
