TimB

Yes, the duration of the heat wave was reduced significantly. There’s a huge ridge behind that trough, so we’ll see how fantasyland plays out.

Clown range GFS has been trending better it seems. Probably so it can punch us in the gut when it trends back the other way at 12z.

Not sure if he has a cat. Maybe he can enlighten us.

I believe the big island summits in Hawaii are currently under a blizzard warning for “snow showers” accumulating a foot or more with 120 mph winds.

Interesting how badly the GFS and Euro continue to diverge by next weekend. GFS still a complete torch, Euro has a low tracking across the M/D line.

Wish in one hand, shit in the other, see which one fills up faster…

And still the ridiculous heatwave the following weekend. The other models don’t quite agree (yet), but the GFS has been remarkably consistent with this feature.

This might be the worst one yet.

Is it too early to mention that 59 is the magic number for all-time warmest winter low at MDT?

Never mind.

GFS run should be incoming momentarily. Good news is it can’t be any worse than the 6z, which pitched a shutout on snowfall for the southern half of PA outside the mountains.

The thing to remember here is, yes, we have a lot of garbage Decembers around here. However, I just looked at the past 40 years of snowfall data by month and something stood out to me. If you define a “garbage December” or “garbage winter” as one with below normal snowfall, there have been only two garbage Decembers that didn’t eventually end up as garbage winters: 2004-05 and 2014-15. And 2004-05 was barely below normal in December (7.3”, normal is 7.7”). So 2014-15 stands out as the only recent “crappy December, decent winter” year (0.2” in December, 47.5” for the winter). So yes, a bad December is often the death knell for an average or above snowfall winter.

You’re right, it’s better to use absolute adjectives like “coast-to-coast”, rather than subjective ones, to describe the ridge that exists late in the GFS run.

Mild, but in a December 2015 kind of way.

November finishes at -2.1. For once, the lows were -2.6 and the highs were -1.6. Way below normal precip for Nov. (only 0.88”), slightly below normal snowfall. Fall finishes +1.8 (+2.3 highs, +1.3 lows).

If you’re into rain, maybe.

At this point, just have to hope GooFuS is lost and the others have a better handle on the situation.

Not sure about PIT as the coldest location in the eastern CONUS, but I’ll take it.

EC saves the day!

It’s setting up the 12/12 heat wave again…

Have a feeling that’s going to be the only interesting thing on the GFS run. It’s 8 days out so can’t really take it verbatim.

At this point I hope we get an ice storm that knocks out the power for each of the remaining Steelers games.

That one at least starts as zr if you take it verbatim.

Temps surge with the Monday system.