TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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The last few GFS runs have brought the Arctic blast in some form or another (it’s very noticeable, though not particularly long-lived, on the 6z). I don’t think the ensembles look notably cold but it’s still a long way off.
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Pick your poison 0z at 360: 6z at 360:
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No snow, but merry Christmas to all!
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True, the D9 storm is suppressed, but the general pattern at 240 on the EC and CMC seems to suggest we have a lot more cold air to tap into than what the GFS gives us.
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Ensembles look decent too, supporting a similar general pattern, and the CMC carries some version of the D9 storm. Still have a shot after the new year.
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Yeah, it’s honestly a back and forth, more progressive pattern which isn’t terrible. And I liked the ending.
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I’ll forgive the weather gods for that one if there’s at least an advisory level snowfall in there.
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I think I especially like how quickly it springs back to the December pattern after that storm. Hopefully the storm is worthwhile.
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Currently in Warren, where a small amount of snow has fallen and stuck. That can help me overlook the awful 0z GFS and CMC runs I just looked at.
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Well, if our winter is like WFT we were screwed from the get go. Now it all makes sense.
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Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three.
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Tell whoever is in charge of the simulation we’re living in that we want snow.
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Maybe that’s when the switch finally gets flipped. Maybe you could go sooner and flip the pattern faster?
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At least temps are below freezing at midnight on New Year’s. (with some WAA and rain looming as a low cuts through Iowa) Edit: actually looks like mixed precip for many areas.
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I mean I get the whole sentiment that we only get a few months each year to track snow and we might as well enjoy it, but the fact that the window is so small to begin with makes it all the more discouraging when 5-6 weeks of that window is wasted on a pattern like this.
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It looks like that trough wants to propagate eastward.
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And New Year’s Day on the GFS is…. wait for it… rainy.
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Just looking at all of that purple on the temp map from Wisconsin clear out to Portland and Seattle is agonizing.
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Next week still looks like an ugly, overcast, warm, rainy mess.
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Doesn’t look like you see even a drop. Edit: until later at night when you’d get a few hundredths.
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12z GFS has begun! Who’s ready?
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I also had a midnight high on Christmas last year…of 23.
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The 64 at MDT just after midnight sounds accurate. I remember being worried about being screwed out of a white Christmas because of how warm it got Christmas Eve and then we got a bunch of snow in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day.
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Was just looking at data for PIT and was reminded that yesterday’s record high was 72 in 2013, which I believe was set at like 1 in the morning.
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Dear Santa, please give me a 7 day stretch where the temperature doesn’t hit 50 on at least one of the days.
