TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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I like to play a little game where I pick a random panel of an ensemble run and see if much has changed. I picked this one today: I’m afraid to look at the 6z GFS. Maybe you already have, how much snow falls at MDT over the course of the run?
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What do you describe as seasonal? +5 departures? +10? How many degrees above or below normal can you be and still be “seasonable”?
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Best guess at high temp Christmas Day…go.
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A very familiar position for us: rooting for the GFS.
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The GFS and CMC ensembles both still look fine for next weekend and beyond, but I feel like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop once again.
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Doesn’t look like it’s going to be the ticket to the Christmas weekend most of us want.
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Also have to pretend I didn’t look at the CMC.
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Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving.
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White Christmas, anyone?
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Sounds like the tropic of melanoma to me.
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That said, I’m also about as fair as they come and I last a few minutes without sunscreen, especially at altitude or in the tropics.
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The ozone stuff might have something to do with it, but it seems far-fetched that the strength of the sun itself has changed that much over the course of (half?) a human lifetime.
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It is the EC so there’s a big caveat there.
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EC gives us yet another possible solution for Christmas: a west-to-east low moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Too warm for snow, but closer to the solution we want?
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Beginning to think it’s impossible to get a low that doesn’t cut this winter.
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No white Christmas on the GFS but looks cold.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Would think today’s record high of 64 is in play if we get some sun. Last year, PIT set a record snowfall of 9.3” on today’s date. What a difference a year makes. Edit: looks like 64 was reached just after noon. -
Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14.
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Anyone need the data for Kansas City while I’m in there?
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DJF only.
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The only thing I’ll add about “normals” is this, and I think I’ve said this before: seasonable temperatures are just fine if you don’t simply oscillate between normal and well above normal like what seems to happen a lot. The last time MDT recorded a negative double digit temp departure for a day was way back on 6/23. How many double digit positive departures have occurred between then and now? 22.
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As @MAG5035and @Blizzard of 93alluded to, highs in the 40s are considered normal for parts of winter, but here’s the top 10: Note that 8 of these have occurred in the past 30 years.
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I’m curious, what does it have in between?
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I’ll try and look into this tomorrow.
