TimB

As always, well said. With all due respect to the rest of us peons, it gives me peace of mind to hear it from a met.

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

The only conclusion I’m drawing here is purely mathematical, and that is (3/130)^2 = approximately 1 in 2,000.

@Blizzard of 93, I really hope you’re right. A short winter would largely be made up for with a really good pattern. But by day 13, MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year where 0.2” or more of snowfall hasn’t fallen on 311 days in a row, which has only happened one other year in 130+ years of recorded history.

I like to play a little game where I pick a random panel of an ensemble run and see if much has changed. I picked this one today: I’m afraid to look at the 6z GFS. Maybe you already have, how much snow falls at MDT over the course of the run?

What do you describe as seasonal? +5 departures? +10? How many degrees above or below normal can you be and still be “seasonable”?

Best guess at high temp Christmas Day…go.

A very familiar position for us: rooting for the GFS.

The GFS and CMC ensembles both still look fine for next weekend and beyond, but I feel like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop once again.

Doesn’t look like it’s going to be the ticket to the Christmas weekend most of us want.

Also have to pretend I didn’t look at the CMC.

Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving.

White Christmas, anyone?

Sounds like the tropic of melanoma to me.

That said, I’m also about as fair as they come and I last a few minutes without sunscreen, especially at altitude or in the tropics.

The ozone stuff might have something to do with it, but it seems far-fetched that the strength of the sun itself has changed that much over the course of (half?) a human lifetime.

It is the EC so there’s a big caveat there.

EC gives us yet another possible solution for Christmas: a west-to-east low moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Too warm for snow, but closer to the solution we want?

Beginning to think it’s impossible to get a low that doesn’t cut this winter.

No white Christmas on the GFS but looks cold.

Would think today’s record high of 64 is in play if we get some sun. Last year, PIT set a record snowfall of 9.3” on today’s date. What a difference a year makes. Edit: looks like 64 was reached just after noon.

Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14.

Anyone need the data for Kansas City while I’m in there?

DJF only.