TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Fair enough, I was way too hasty in my look at it. General pattern is ugly when it comes to sustained cold.
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Did someone say 18z GFS?
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No it’s not, it’s impressive how quick those 500 height anomalies spring back to deep red next weekend behind the departing system.
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No torching beyond 72 hours which is a plus.
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Lots of time. Hopefully at least someone wins with this one.
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The irony being it is pretty close to where I want it. Sorry guys.
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Just look at that late week storm go straight up the Ohio River. Right where we want it.
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Now don’t be so negative, it will. Just give it time.
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Fair enough. In the meantime, let’s hope for some snow out of the possible events next week!
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It looks like you just said my pessimism with the current pattern is simply realism, no?
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Would be interesting to compare those bad years with the same years in other regions of the country and see if everything east of the Rockies was simultaneously bad as it’s been this year so far. I don’t know the answer to that off the top of my head.
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But it’s not just PA. Places in very different regions of the country whose weather doesn’t correlate to ours whatsoever (Denver and Chicago for example) obliterated records for latest first measurable snow. If it were just an isolated occurrence for one region of the country, I wouldn’t be as concerned.
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I think my post about single digit snowfall was probably over the line as far as “canceling winter” posts go. Yes, it’s probably too early to worry about that.
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As our climo slowly becomes more like theirs, that’s bound to happen.
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Is it too early to be legitimately worried about finishing winter with a single digit snow total?
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EC brings in a decent snowfall with the cold air later in the week. Might be the only game in town if the Sun/Mon event doesn’t pan out. Ens look almost as bad as the ops for D10+.
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I really like the snow total through 372 for most of PA on the 6z. But fear not, for there are more 60s in fantasyland on the 6z.
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The warning level snow line with that system isn’t far from I-80, so there’s that.
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I think I’ll stick with that feature of that system, because verbatim it’s more disappointment. Still, we’re a bit closer to being where we need to be.
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They did score touchdowns in the second half of all of those games and even won two of them, so there’s still hope for winter too.
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It’s horribly out of phase with the GFS with the evolution of the pattern change too.
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Roughly speaking, that’s what this winter feels like so far.
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Well there you have it. The first two years of the period of record were among the least snowy, and the last two years of the period of record have been the warmest. Both are just coincidences, right?
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It’s not an ideal low track but you know it looks better than anything the EC is going to spit out in a couple hours.
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Don’t be. There are encouraging signs beyond D10 for cold air and I don’t think we’ve seen that yet this winter so the tide is turning.
