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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    The GFS and CMC ensembles both still look fine for next weekend and beyond, but I feel like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop once again.
  2. TimB
    Doesn’t look like it’s going to be the ticket to the Christmas weekend most of us want.
  3. TimB
    Also have to pretend I didn’t look at the CMC.
  4. TimB
    Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving.
  5. TimB
    White Christmas, anyone?
  6. TimB
    Sounds like the tropic of melanoma to me.
  7. TimB
    That said, I’m also about as fair as they come and I last a few minutes without sunscreen, especially at altitude or in the tropics.
  8. TimB
    The ozone stuff might have something to do with it, but it seems far-fetched that the strength of the sun itself has changed that much over the course of (half?) a human lifetime.
  9. TimB
    It is the EC so there’s a big caveat there.
  10. TimB
    EC gives us yet another possible solution for Christmas: a west-to-east low moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Too warm for snow, but closer to the solution we want?
  11. TimB
    Beginning to think it’s impossible to get a low that doesn’t cut this winter.
  12. TimB
    No white Christmas on the GFS but looks cold.
  13. TimB
    Would think today’s record high of 64 is in play if we get some sun. Last year, PIT set a record snowfall of 9.3” on today’s date. What a difference a year makes. Edit: looks like 64 was reached just after noon.
  14. TimB
    Unless and until the ensembles punt the way the operational models did overnight, we can’t punt yet. It’s 3rd and 14.
  15. TimB
    Anyone need the data for Kansas City while I’m in there?
  16. TimB
    DJF only.
  17. TimB
    The only thing I’ll add about “normals” is this, and I think I’ve said this before: seasonable temperatures are just fine if you don’t simply oscillate between normal and well above normal like what seems to happen a lot. The last time MDT recorded a negative double digit temp departure for a day was way back on 6/23. How many double digit positive departures have occurred between then and now? 22.
  18. TimB
    As @MAG5035and @Blizzard of 93alluded to, highs in the 40s are considered normal for parts of winter, but here’s the top 10: Note that 8 of these have occurred in the past 30 years.
  19. TimB
    I’m curious, what does it have in between?
  20. TimB
    I’ll try and look into this tomorrow.
  21. TimB
    I’m aware of that, but my understanding is that 64 and 65 round to 64, while 66 and 67 round to 66. Edit: Regardless, 2:53 obs was 67.
  22. TimB
    Has since been broken, latest 5-min obs was 66.
  23. TimB
    It’s not a bad look for cold, but doesn’t exactly deliver the goods.
  24. TimB
    Where do you personally draw the line?
  25. TimB
    I always enjoy these posts. The Zapata, TX reference reminds me of a PM I once got from someone inquiring about the September record high for the state of Texas because it was 107 in Zapata that day.
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