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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Also, my A/C just kicked on. At 11:42. I think it even ran briefly at night last night.
  2. TimB
    Indeed, let’s get a snow in BEFORE my trip to Cancun.
  3. TimB
    Was reading NWS Phoenix’s forecast discussion last evening and it implied that if the low temp drops below 55 next week (which is likely) they’ll be nearly 3 weeks ahead of schedule for their first sub-55 low per 1991-2020 climo. That’s an anomalous trough any way you slice it.
  4. TimB
    The digital snowstorm of 9/29 would like a word with you.
  5. TimB
    For what it’s worth, which is admittedly not much:
  6. TimB
    Anytime you’re comparing an October to 2007 it can’t be good. This one looks like it might have actually been plagued with the high DP problems early in the month and then again mid-month, looks a lot wetter than the 1973 month that had a 26 day almost completely dry stretch. It also had a nice break in the heat with a freeze on tomorrow’s date.
  7. TimB
    But 4 days the whole month where the high exceeded 75 and two where the low exceeded 60.
  8. TimB
    10/17 is a bit of a stretch. GFS has a very pedestrian high of 63 on that day, but that’ll feel great compared to this garbage.
  9. TimB
    Signals seem to be that the pattern might start to break down somewhere around the weekend of the 16th, but can we really count on that? My point and click doesn’t contain a temperature or a dewpoint lower than 58.
  10. TimB
    1975
  11. TimB
    Not a word on the matter from me. We cannot drag any of the OT drama into a wx thread.
  12. TimB
    EC carries the bad stuff through the end of its run.
  13. TimB
    He only follows NASCAR, from what we know so far.
  14. TimB
    It’s set at 72. It’s always a matter of debate whether to open the windows at night, and it may have been possible last night if not for the high dewpoints.
  15. TimB
    Update: it kicked on at 1:33 pm. This pattern is getting ridiculous.
  16. TimB
    Already slight improvements on the overnight model runs. The “cooler” period is still normal to slightly above, then the GFS reloads with more warmth, but it’s not ugly.
  17. TimB
    October 2021, where a +8 anomaly on the low temperature is a pleasant surprise for those who enjoy fall. Still quite foggy here, hopefully that holds our high temperature back a bit and my a/c doesn’t have to kick on again today.
  18. TimB
    Indeed, was not expecting to get well into the 50s.
  19. TimB
    GFS keeps reloading with the ridge. Many runs, it’s there in some form through the end of the run. That’s Oct. 20 at this point.
  20. TimB
    Nothing I’ve seen on any model screams record highs, but it’s a long period of temperatures and dewpoints that are tolerable in July but miserable in October.
  21. TimB
    That’s probably the standard-bearer for recent warm Octobers as far as I’m concerned, but similar Octobers seem to be occurring at least every other year lately, which is concerning.
  22. TimB
    The record October at MDT is a +6.2 anomaly relative to the current normals. It’s probably too early for you to start thinking about breaking that record (2007), but it looks like it’ll be within reach.
  23. TimB
    Saw an all black one while walking the dog last week, then a black one with a brown band in my driveway on Saturday. Don’t those things cause skin rashes?
  24. TimB
    Centralia mine fire evaporated the rain before it reached the ground.
  25. TimB
    Agreed. It’s an ugly week ahead. Thing is, a week-long stretch in October where the temperature doesn’t drop below 60 looks to be about a 30 year event (happened only a handful of times in the records). If it happens this week, that will be twice in the last 5 years (8 day stretch in 2017).
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