TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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So we get these ridiculously torchy Decembers in El Niño years (2015) and in La Niña years (2021) and it’s confusing. It’s almost like the ENSO status isn’t the driving factor and there’s something else at play, but I can’t put my finger on what it is.
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What are your thoughts on the 0z NAM?
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The only thing I’ll say is it might be jumping the gun to think about how bad the upcoming pattern is when there are legitimate snow chances (albeit modest ones) in the near term.
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Wouldn’t say I’m upset at all. Just noting that this isn’t merely a garden-variety non-winter-like pattern in winter, the magnitude and duration is rare.
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18z GFS: ugly for the midweek storm, ugly for any backend snow potential this weekend, ugly for the long term. Also saw that the 90% above normal probability on the 8-14 day outlook I posted earlier is the largest 90% above normal area on an 8-14 day outlook since… December 15, 2015.
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Can confirm, it has been very gusty out here.
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Certainly does. That said, I look at those maps regularly, and it’s rare that there’s a 90% area anywhere near that big.
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So how about a 90% contour for above normal probabilities covering all or part of 25 states on the CPC Day 8-14 map?
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There’s always the hope against hope that maybe, just maybe the one run (so far) of the operational GFS that makes it cold from the 18th on (and differs wildly from the ensemble at this juncture) is right.
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Toss. 1” area needs to be about 10 miles north.
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So true. In this case, just a weak cutoff low that meanders through the southeast for days.
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That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:
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As strongly as I feel Ben needs to retire, it was nostalgic to see him play like his old self in the 4th quarter. We won’t see that many more times.
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It’s a cruel world we live in, where both El Niño and La Niña happen to create garbage winters in our region.
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Also, yet another ridge is building over the Midwest on that panel.
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So it’s come to not only posting a 384 hour GFS map, but having to extrapolate it, to have any hope in December.
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I’m curious what @Blizzard of 93’s thoughts are on the 12z GFS.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Our last 2” snowfall was February 9th. Today will be day #299 without a 2 inch or more snowfall, which will rank 24th all time. Get to 316 and we crack the top 10, which currently includes 4 different times this century. -
Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Wednesday looks DOA at this point. And it’s hard to buy what some runs of the operational models are trying to sell for the upcoming weekend when they are so badly out of sync with the ensembles. We need a massive pattern change. -
In short, yes. And it’s a downgrade from 0z.
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It’s slipping away, unless one believes the GFS. I’m hesitant to buy what the Euro is trying to sell me for next weekend, because the general pattern just doesn’t seem conducive to it.
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Best yet, the weekend is now in play…
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I mean if this thing does end up sliding south, I’d rather it slide way south so the MA folks don’t steal all the snow.
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Way too early to give up when some models still show a decent snowfall.
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The coldinista in me would take 30s and dry over 50s-60s and rainy (and maybe even over 50s-60s and dry), and a colder solution does cut into any chance of a +8 December.
