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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    So an advisory level event? Not at all. SLRs would be high so wouldn’t even take a ton of QPF.
  2. TimB
    A top-notch Freudian slip for sure.
  3. TimB
    Most model watching, to be honest.
  4. TimB
    I’m now rooting for the GFS. I can live with today’s result, but it would be a tough pill to swallow if the Mid Atlantic got two storms this week and I got nothing.
  5. TimB
    ^ I’ll go on the record and say that I think that’s impossible.
  6. TimB
    As a wx fan, it is intriguing to see the way this system evolved from basically nothing in that area in such a short time. I’m with you on that one. Also, you’re right, we had a winter last year while many of them didn’t.
  7. TimB
    It happens, when the possibility of losing to DCA in season total snowfall, however remote that may be, starts creeping into one’s mind.
  8. TimB
    Significant southward shift from 0z, that would be another win for the Mid-Atlantic.
  9. TimB
    Here is the GFS from as recently as 6z Saturday for today’s Mid-Atlantic storm: There’s still time, there’s still hope.
  10. TimB
    Every 5 min obs at DCA since 9:14 has been heavy snow. Looks like about 3/4” of liquid equivalent since changeover there.
  11. TimB
    That has been my inclination, but wanted to confirm that it isn’t just my own already well-documented pessimism.
  12. TimB
    How concerned should we be that the GFS hasn’t picked up on anything with the Thurs/Fri storm less than 4 days from onset?
  13. TimB
    Yes, gone way too soon. And yes, I know who Karen Carpenter is despite having zero overlap of our time on this earth.
  14. TimB
    Little did she know… too dark?
  15. TimB
    It’s all fun and games until DCA’s season-to-date total is double digits ahead of some of us with better climo. LOL
  16. TimB
    Need a good second storm if the first one looks anything like that for DCA. I don’t know if I can handle being behind DCA’s season total snowfall for any appreciable amount of time.
  17. TimB
  18. TimB
    One other interesting note: the last time the temp dropped below 14 at MDT was 2/2/2019, which is by far the longest such streak ever at that location. Could that be in jeopardy by the weekend?
  19. TimB
    The entrance of the full blown trough definitely needs to be slower (like the EC) for the storm timing to work out.
  20. TimB
    I don’t take the Ukie that seriously except when it’s showing the best news of the current model suite so far.
  21. TimB
    12z Ukie for 1/7:
  22. TimB
    It looks like it could get interesting (not for me, but definitely for southern areas of C PA) and probably has an effect on how the rest of the week plays out. Can’t imagine models will come into agreement on the later system until the earlier system does what it does.
  23. TimB
    Yeah, I wasn’t buying the scenario the 0z GFS spit out.
  24. TimB
    I’ll admit that I was a bit tipsy when I looked at the models last night, but didn’t the 0z GFS and CMC suppress the 1/7 system? I remember being glad I stayed up for the Euro and I’m glad to see it’s back on the GFS.
  25. TimB
    Shades of January 2019. Okay, not that cold. That was the true extreme event when it comes to anything recent up there.
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