TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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It looks like 2021 will conclude without a record low at MDT, though if I recall correctly, there were record cold highs on Memorial Day weekend.
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MDT still has dates with record highs in the 50s? Every day of the year has reached 60 at least once here.
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I was hoping it’d be that straightforward and not require me to put in any actual effort.
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Change the CTP in that link to PBZ: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=pbz&issuedby=PBZ&product=HYD
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What does CTP’s look like, for reference?
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I think I tried to find this once and failed but I didn’t look very hard.
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I’m downtrodden by all of it. Going into Blizz mode and looking for sources of (possibly false) hope.
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The look at 240 is more like what the EPS is depicting which isn’t a terrible look.
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The front between extreme warmth and cold is over IL/MO later next week instead of over the Rockies? Edit: and eventually surges east! (Briefly, the ridge looks like it’s going to get its way again.)
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Just imagine hitting January 13th with less than two inches of snow for the season to date. If the GFS is taken verbatim, that’s what happens. Even 19-20 was better than that.
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TT loads faster than Pivotal. I’m not up to that miserable part yet.
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That is good to hear. Personally, I’m considering going to a hypnotist to make me forget I ever cared about weather.
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About the Jan 2/3 period or about this hobby in general?
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True. Just a knee-jerk reaction from someone who’s frustrated that we just went through a winter only two years ago that produced similar results under a completely different base state.
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Is it too much to ask that garbage like this doesn’t show up during a week when it was supposed to be cold just 48 hours ago?
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So 23% of normal snowfall. Maintaining that pace for the rest of winter would put MDT at 6.8”.
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It looks like this on Pivotal so you can see my confusion:
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Now I’m confused, that’s the 12z GFS?
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12z has been a complete and unmitigated disaster so far. Be thankful for what you got today, that’s basically all anyone gets if the GFS and CMC are right.
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And after ZERO days with sub-freezing highs, there’s that goddamn ridge right on our doorstep. What does it take to get a decent winter pattern?
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Yep, parts of Mississippi get what we would consider warning-level snows while we get….nothing.
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Time will tell. In the meantime, you guys have an event today to enjoy and the 6z GFS has a total of 19” of snow at MDT over its entire run.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It looked like maybe some sleet fell here at some point this morning, but was all rain by the time I got up. Still, the evidence of frozen precip was on my wooden steps. -
I still think they look better than December and we should get our chances in January, but our window in the next two weeks looks much narrower than it did just 12-24 hours ago. Brief shot of cold early next week before we get some degree of ridging. Even on the ensembles, once the 500 height anomalies go back to positive mid-next week they stay either positive or neutral for much of the period.
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Ah, tricky. I read it as “season”, but you mean “year”, as in 2021. (But can we rule out the former at this point?)
