TimB
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Time will tell. In the meantime, you guys have an event today to enjoy and the 6z GFS has a total of 19” of snow at MDT over its entire run.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It looked like maybe some sleet fell here at some point this morning, but was all rain by the time I got up. Still, the evidence of frozen precip was on my wooden steps. -
I still think they look better than December and we should get our chances in January, but our window in the next two weeks looks much narrower than it did just 12-24 hours ago. Brief shot of cold early next week before we get some degree of ridging. Even on the ensembles, once the 500 height anomalies go back to positive mid-next week they stay either positive or neutral for much of the period.
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Ah, tricky. I read it as “season”, but you mean “year”, as in 2021. (But can we rule out the former at this point?)
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I haven’t looked at the overnight model runs yet, but I did look at the weather app on my phone and I’m worried about the bolded. Edit: 6z GFS looks great for you guys and acceptable for me. Edit 2: ah, it’s the EC where temperatures pop right back up into the 40s by next Wednesday or even Tuesday for some.
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God damnit LOL, you’re right. It was also 58 here yesterday. Also LOL at bolded. Yinz know how to trigger me.
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Winner? Wasn’t your original guess 49?
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Winter seems to be consistently scoring some victories in the D8-10 range on all of the 12z operational models. How much snow ushers in the cold period is a big question, but I’m cautiously optimistic.
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The last few GFS runs have brought the Arctic blast in some form or another (it’s very noticeable, though not particularly long-lived, on the 6z). I don’t think the ensembles look notably cold but it’s still a long way off.
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Pick your poison 0z at 360: 6z at 360:
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No snow, but merry Christmas to all!
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True, the D9 storm is suppressed, but the general pattern at 240 on the EC and CMC seems to suggest we have a lot more cold air to tap into than what the GFS gives us.
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Ensembles look decent too, supporting a similar general pattern, and the CMC carries some version of the D9 storm. Still have a shot after the new year.
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Yeah, it’s honestly a back and forth, more progressive pattern which isn’t terrible. And I liked the ending.
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I’ll forgive the weather gods for that one if there’s at least an advisory level snowfall in there.
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I think I especially like how quickly it springs back to the December pattern after that storm. Hopefully the storm is worthwhile.
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Currently in Warren, where a small amount of snow has fallen and stuck. That can help me overlook the awful 0z GFS and CMC runs I just looked at.
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Well, if our winter is like WFT we were screwed from the get go. Now it all makes sense.
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Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three.
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Tell whoever is in charge of the simulation we’re living in that we want snow.
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Maybe that’s when the switch finally gets flipped. Maybe you could go sooner and flip the pattern faster?
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At least temps are below freezing at midnight on New Year’s. (with some WAA and rain looming as a low cuts through Iowa) Edit: actually looks like mixed precip for many areas.
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I mean I get the whole sentiment that we only get a few months each year to track snow and we might as well enjoy it, but the fact that the window is so small to begin with makes it all the more discouraging when 5-6 weeks of that window is wasted on a pattern like this.
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It looks like that trough wants to propagate eastward.
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And New Year’s Day on the GFS is…. wait for it… rainy.
