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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    I’m supposed to work tomorrow but not going to sleep much tonight so I could get behind the power outage idea.
  2. TimB
    Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee.
  3. TimB
    Bottom line is, even with all this fretting about dry slotting, this run still puts down roughly a foot in the metro. Yes, it’s closer to 18” in Youngstown.
  4. TimB
    Looks like it mixes for a bit after it fills in.
  5. TimB
    Fills back in by 6z.
  6. TimB
    Dry slot arrives at 3z on the HRRR. 6” on the ground at that point.
  7. TimB
    That’s the bottom line here. Yes, I want something special, but I think I’m okay with the idea of settling for 8” of snow of the dry slot screws us.
  8. TimB
    Dry slot looked very prominent on the 11z HRRR through 18 hours. I’m watching the 12z to see how quickly it fills in on the full run.
  9. TimB
    For perspective, NWS gives us a 13% chance of 18”+ at PIT. I think I saw the Steelers have a 14% chance of winning.
  10. TimB
    A storm where the “low end amount” map from the NWS has half of Allegheny County in the 8-12” range? Sign me up!
  11. TimB
    Current temp, I think. LOL
  12. TimB
    RGEM pounds us with 14” and very little mixing.
  13. TimB
    I haven’t seen anything in the trends today that gives me reason to complain, and I’m a big time complainer at times.
  14. TimB
    The NAM is not terrible. Hardly any mixing. Yes, there’s a dry slot after a 4” front end thump, then it fills in and drops another 5”+. I’d say it caved.
  15. TimB
    So we’re tossing the NAM, right?
  16. TimB
    Gradient is a lot sharper across the metro. “Official” total would be a bit below a foot but many of us would see well over.
  17. TimB
    Well we do lose an inch or two off the 12z run, but still over a foot with 2” per hour rates between 3-6am Monday.
  18. TimB
    Ninja’d. Great minds think alike.
  19. TimB
    18z HRRR still looks good. 12” through 7am Monday.
  20. TimB
    It’s a positive sign that they haven’t put the possibility other p-types into the forecast, and that others like TWC haven’t added the “some mixed winter precipitation possible” wording. Using the 1/19/19 storm as an example, TWC carried mostly rain long before the NWS ever did.
  21. TimB
    12z RGEM was a sleetfest. That 12” total doesn’t seem to be mostly snow.
  22. TimB
    Yeah, sure as hell not expecting 22”. Mostly just observing where it has the deform band, which is here.
  23. TimB
    By the end of the run there’s 14” and still snowing. The stuff winter dreams are made of.
  24. TimB
    12z HRRR is looking great. Almost all snow and dry slotting stays SE. 6.4” through 42. A couple hours in there picked up almost 2”.
  25. TimB
    Pivotal. Between the NAM and RGEM. I’m not a subscriber.
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