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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    1/19/19? 2/15/21?
  2. TimB
    We’re guaranteed to move up to a tie for 3rd place on this list, but hopefully it ends Sunday:
  3. TimB
    I’ve been overall pretty impressed with the GFS’s ability to ferret things out this winter. We’ll see if it’s just as successful when it’s leading the charge for snow.
  4. TimB
    Those forecasts come directly from TWC, I believe, and they conveniently left out the “night” portions, which say 5-8 for Sunday night at this point.
  5. TimB
    It’s not a ton, but it’s enough to make people nervous who might get screwed by it.
  6. TimB
    That 4-9” on the winter storm watch is a bit worrisome - I was expecting/hoping for 6-12”. If anyone wouldn’t take totals in the higher end of the range they’d be crazy, but 4-5” would sting after being in such a good position for so long. I know the dry slotting and mixing probably won’t be nailed down until much closer to the event, but east solutions are still in play (GEFS ensemble is still not great and the Ukie shifted that way overnight).
  7. TimB
    NAM looks good. 8” at end of run.
  8. TimB
    This is going to look a lot like 18z, I suspect.
  9. TimB
    Yeah, how likely is it really that we’ll get those insane rates? If nothing else, the 18z runs so far can at least make it easier to take the NAM with a grain of salt.
  10. TimB
    RGEM is solid. 9” at PIT and still good rates through the end of the run. GFS still carrying a foot plus at PIT with 18” as close as HLG.
  11. TimB
    3k NAM is half of Alabama south at 60. Low center is on the gulf coast.
  12. TimB
    That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio.
  13. TimB
    18z NAM first sign of trouble? Or just too far out to be trusted yet?
  14. TimB
    Expect a dry slot even if this thing tracks favorably for us. It’s Pittsburgh.
  15. TimB
    EC largely held serve. Just a hair east.
  16. TimB
    Even so, mixing or not, I think I’d settle for the foot or so of snow that it gives us.
  17. TimB
    I remember Fries. He did write good discussions. Frankly, I’m not met bashing either, I think our local office does an incredible job given that they have to forecast in a region like this, where they have the northern lake effect snowbelts, the Pittsburgh area and all of our climate quirks, the mountains of PA and WV, and even eastern Ohio, which seems to be different enough from Pittsburgh to make forecasting tricky. Writing the discussion is the least of their worries, and it shows.
  18. TimB
    It looks like they took the first paragraph of the previous discussion, reworded it slightly (it must have been too long), and didn’t carry any of the discussion about the Sun-Mon storm from the 3:30 version.
  19. TimB
    I have to laugh…
  20. TimB
    It’s not the mixing, nor a miss east, that will get us. It’s going to be the dry slot this time.
  21. TimB
    That is a massive shift.
  22. TimB
    The grocery store was fairly empty (people, not shelves, other than the normal supply chain stuff we’re faced with these days) last night. Glad I went before the local media hype.
  23. TimB
    Seconded, as long as “mixing issues” means sleet/zr that cuts into totals and not 6” of snow that ends as rain and wipes half of the snow out.
  24. TimB
    Snow depth at PIT on the 12z GFS stays at a foot or more from the time of the storm until the end of the run. Would imagine MDT would be able to say the same with the EC storm.
  25. TimB
    Wouldn’t have expected the Euro to make as drastic of a shift in just one run as it would have needed to make from 0z to 12z to give us a snowstorm. That would be too GFS-like.
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