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TimB

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  1. TimB
    I’d go as far as to say they should take down the watch, but they’ll leave it up until it turns into an advisory for a trace to a tenth of freezing rain. We met our quota of one good winter month, but now it’s February.
  2. TimB
    1.8” of QPF through 3z Friday, of which 1.72” is rain and the other 0.08” is “freezing rain” that falls during the day at 32 degrees, which is just a glorified way to say plain rain.
  3. TimB
    A boring rainstorm. It’s almost like they set these models up in such a way that they suck us in for a storm we had no business tracking, only to pull the rug out.
  4. TimB
    Looks a lot like the HRRR through 45.
  5. TimB
    12z HRRR was at 33 at daybreak Thursday. 18z HRRR is at 36 at the same time and stays above freezing through the end of its run. Hours and hours of 33 degree rain.
  6. TimB
    If @jwilsonsays it is, there’s a pretty solid chance it is.
  7. TimB
    Euro with a slight tick in the right direction. Maybe not enough, but when is it ever?
  8. TimB
    Ukie trended warmer.
  9. TimB
    GFS drops to -12 but is by far the coldest model on that part.
  10. TimB
    It looks like a slight NW shift on the Canadian but we can’t really afford anything in that direction.
  11. TimB
    With a GFS-like snowpack, it continues to insist that Saturday morning could be the coldest of the season.
  12. TimB
    Gradient of 4-12” of snow across Allegheny not counting sleet.
  13. TimB
    Slower to make sleet change to snow which will cut into snow totals but we get pounded for hours on end with heavy sleet.
  14. TimB
    The book has been closed on January. Coldest January (5.2 degrees below normal) since 2014. Snowiest January since 2011. At least a trace of snow on 23 days, measurable snow on 13 days. There were 20 days that didn’t get above freezing. Finished the month with 15 consecutive days of snow cover. About as good as it can get if you ask me.
  15. TimB
    0.25”+ is red. I don’t see any red on that map.
  16. TimB
    That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. They’ve also updated the zones to include a lot more mix during the day Thursday (with sleet more prevalent than zr).
  17. TimB
    It consistently had some of the highest totals on the MLK storm (can we call it the KPITSnow 1/19/19 redux?) if that says anything.
  18. TimB
    RGEM (which hasn’t been kind to us with this storm) still looks warm.
  19. TimB
    All of the globals except the GFS have us near 40 at daybreak, so we’ll have to see what the 12z runs of those do.
  20. TimB
    That’s the bottom line. The goalposts are narrowing. The most plausible options are a sleet bomb or an ice storm or some combination of the two, with little rain or snow.
  21. TimB
    Everything so far is starting to suggest that we might be below freezing most of the day Thursday, but temps aloft don’t support snow during that timeframe. This can’t be good, unless you really want the crippling ice storm. Anyone?
  22. TimB
    NAM also has us below freezing all day Thursday from daybreak. More sleet than zr in Pittsburgh but the 1”+ ice totals are in southern Allegheny county.
  23. TimB
    12z HRRR (at the end of its range, of course) has us down to 33 by daybreak Thursday.
  24. TimB
    1/12/18? Did that start as rain?
  25. TimB
    NAM total is 0.90”. Steady light freezing rain during the day (0.36” by 4pm). Gets heavier after dark but would imagine some of that runs off.
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