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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    It is, unfortunately, the pattern changer. The 500 pattern looks much more like December after that, but it’s a week and a half away and hopefully won’t have the kind of staying power it had in December.
  2. TimB
    That’s the problem, if this phases with the southern stream I could see major p-type issues.
  3. TimB
    I believe so, yes. Aren’t they both clippers in some form, except the Mon-Tues one tries to tap into southern stream moisture?
  4. TimB
    TWC sees the Monday-Tuesday thing as a possible low end advisory type event, and is carrying a chance of snow on Sunday, so maybe he got it from there?
  5. TimB
    So you’d consider the days of +15 to +20 that we get at least once in just about every non-summer month to be big heat?
  6. TimB
    For example, a couple randomly selected years with a good snowstorm in January: January 19-20, 2001: 6.8” of snow fell, snow depth remained 4”+ through 1/29. January 7, 1996: 9.2” of snow fell, snow depth remained 6”+ through 1/17 (albeit with a couple smaller reinforcing events in between). We just didn’t torch right after these events in years past. And here we are, only down to 41 with snow continuing to melt at 8pm on a day that was only supposed to get to 40.
  7. TimB
    All of that is true. It’s just, there was a time within a lot of our lifetimes that you could get 9” of snow in the climatologically coldest part of winter and it would be reasonable to expect it to have some staying power and not have the majority of it melt within 60 hours of the end of the storm. Then again, there was also a time within a lot of our lifetimes that highs near 20 and lows in the single digits to near 0 wouldn’t be described as “big cold”.
  8. TimB
    Who said I wanted to do anything about it? Just lamenting something that sucks about our climate in recent years.
  9. TimB
  10. TimB
    Front of my house faces north toward the street. The backyard is protected by trees, so it still has a solid snowpack. The front yard is somewhat protected by my house, so it still has a decent snowpack. (Except in areas where my dog trampled down the snow, which are obviously a bit worse off.) Across the street where there is much less protection from the sun, there are large patches of green visible. And still 3 hours of daylight and several more hours of temps above freezing to go.
  11. TimB
  12. TimB
    Clouds seem to be thickening some here. Hopefully that stops the bleeding.
  13. TimB
    That’s what I mean. Whenever we get a pattern that looks good for snow retention, it gets put in jeopardy by a day that was supposed to be overcast and struggle to reach 40 instead torching well into the mid-40s with lots of sun.
  14. TimB
    As long as it stays mostly overcast and there’s no rain we should be able to keep a good snowpack.
  15. TimB
    Looks like PIT is already at 40 and AGC is already at 42. Seems like high temperatures always overperform when we have a chance to melt snow.
  16. TimB
    This storm is a lock. Only fly in the ointment is whether the NAM mixes sleet in when it gets into range.
  17. TimB
    Simple. A low forms in the Gulf, runs up the coast, drops 50mb in 24 hours, then retrogrades westward.
  18. TimB
    Just need a little NW shift on the GFS D11 storm and we’re good. Get something like that and I don’t care if it changes the pattern.
  19. TimB
    Blasphemy. You’ll get like 25-30 consecutive weeks of 50s or higher soon enough.
  20. TimB
    I have nothing against clippers. Refresh the snowpack with a couple inches every so often? Sign me up.
  21. TimB
    True. Scoring big in January is always the key.
  22. TimB
    I don’t like the part about “shifting back toward what we saw in December.”
  23. TimB
    GFS continues to like the idea of a clipper early next week. 12z run depicts it with solid advisory level snows.
  24. TimB
    GFS solution of an inch or two tomorrow night would maybe go a long way to allowing us to reach that elusive -1 by Friday morning.
  25. TimB
    Trusting in the NAM to pull this weekend system north as it gets more in range.
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