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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    If you have to be stuck somewhere, I’d suggest it be anywhere but work.
  2. TimB
    In theory, an advisory gets issued for areas that even see as much as a drop of freezing rain, right?
  3. TimB
    Thing is, the ensembles generally have moved back to a below normal temp look for much of the period, which I think is a good thing.
  4. TimB
    Until 18z, we can pretend.
  5. TimB
  6. TimB
    Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. We have 27” piled up through hour 300, parts of SW Ohio are pushing 4 feet.
  7. TimB
    32 line seems to be advancing a little faster on the Canadian. Of course, that means we get pounded with ice.
  8. TimB
    I wouldn’t trust the RAP at this range but it did go from 1.4” of snow on its previous extended run to pushing double digits on this one.
  9. TimB
    Do I? Does anyone?
  10. TimB
    0.76” ice and 5.9” snow plus what looks like a couple inches of sleet.
  11. TimB
    Verbatim, the GFS is probably the worst case scenario from a practical (non-weenie) perspective. Enough ice to knock out the power, a bunch of snow and temperatures plunging well below zero Saturday morning. Brutal.
  12. TimB
    Hey, just because we don’t do snow well doesn’t mean we can’t do literally every other p-type very well.
  13. TimB
    Would imagine this means they’re considering upping ice totals…
  14. TimB
    Oh for sure, warm advection will push the rain line further north than modeled 9 times out of 10, and even if this is that rare exception, I suppose ice totals would be reduced by the fact that some of the event is occurring during the day with temps close to freezing and ground temperatures probably above freezing in many instances.
  15. TimB
    Actually that HRRR run is an unmitigated disaster. Upwards of an inch of zr in a band from the airport through Wexford.
  16. TimB
    HRRR has 33-34 and rain in and around the city through at least 6pm tomorrow, while a steady freezing rain falls all day near the airport.
  17. TimB
    Would guess that the warm air holds on long enough not to snarl the PM commute, but people drive like idiots in rain too.
  18. TimB
    Southeast tier of CLE counties got an advisory, while the rest of their counties got a warning, if that’s any indicator of what product PBZ issues today.
  19. TimB
    Solid swath of 6” across Allegheny County.
  20. TimB
    More zr than 18z total.
  21. TimB
    Of course they will, but pretty sure PBZ leads the nation by a wide margin in watches that get downgraded to advisories.
  22. TimB
    Because the watch only exists for continuity purposes at this point.
  23. TimB
    3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short.
  24. TimB
    How much ice combined with a low end advisory snowfall is worthy of a watch/warning? Surely not 0.0x”, right?
  25. TimB
    Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it.
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