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TimB

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  1. TimB
    All that worrying and here we are on day 12 of at least 4” snowpack at PIT and should easily add 3 more days to that, which would tie last year for 11th place for consecutive days with at least 4” of snow on the ground. Record is 54 in 1978, so basically a Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak kind of record. Simply put, this stretch has rivaled the good stretches from last winter in my opinion.
  2. TimB
    Further, today’s week 3-4 outlook (2/12-25) has us in the “equal chances” zone, closer to the above normal than to the below. 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have us firmly in the below normal, so would expect when the updated Feb map comes out on Monday, it won’t look like the one last week.
  3. TimB
    That’s exactly it. We’ll see how the month pans out, but as badly as the CPC was wrong last February with almost the exact same map, it’s hard to put much stock into that product.
  4. TimB
    Yeah, a little oddly specific scenario.
  5. TimB
    Right now their official forecast for Boston is 23”, with a “low end amount” of 12.2”.
  6. TimB
    Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week?
  7. TimB
    I think I mentioned this yesterday. There are certainly periods of positive height anomalies on both the operational runs and ensembles, but much of it looks weak and hopefully not likely to be a full-on torch in between cold periods, and there’s a lot of cold air to break through. But it’s a more transient pattern, which of course keeps things open for storms.
  8. TimB
    Yes, nice to see another pack refresher. We need 1.9” today at PIT to get to 20 for the month, so that may be a tough ask but not impossible. On another note, we’re now at the halfway point of snow climo. Normal through yesterday is 22.0”, normal for the season is 44.1”.
  9. TimB
    I’m getting 2” as well, but I don’t have a start time. Not sure how that works.
  10. TimB
    GFS had that storm on the 0z run and has carried it on the following runs. I would never put any stock in something that was only at hour 240 of the CMC.
  11. TimB
    What in God’s name is that start times map?
  12. TimB
    Noted. For you to be criticizing the CMC it has to be pretty bad.
  13. TimB
    Wave after wave of punishing cold. Look on the bright side, the CMC does have a storm.
  14. TimB
    Position of the ridge will be key to how that part of the pattern plays out. Certainly doesn’t look like Feb will be as cold as Jan but we knew that already.
  15. TimB
    The thing I’ve been noticing lately is next week doesn’t look like a decisive pattern shift at all, there might be good opportunities in Feb. if the pattern reloads.
  16. TimB
    Now to see if it continues to carry the storm for next weekend.
  17. TimB
    Temp bounced around a lot last night if you look at the 5-min obs. Same with the night before. I know if you get a puff of wind or a few passing clouds on these deep radiational cooling nights it can really have an effect, but it doesn’t look like there was much of that in the obs last night as compared to the night before.
  18. TimB
    Looks like it was an interesting interhour -6 at about 6:20 this morning, between a 5:51 obs of 0 and a 6:51 obs of 1.
  19. TimB
    Way, way too early, but the last 2 GFS runs are showing something big next weekend. It’s almost like the pattern wants to reload after the warm-up next week.
  20. TimB
    Nearest PWS to me got to -8, so we’ll go with that imby. I concur that this has been not just a good winter period, but a great winter period that has made it easy to forget December. By the time the snowpack goes away, we should be on the plus side of two weeks with continuous snow cover.
  21. TimB
    PIT recorded a 5-min obs of 0 in the past hour before jumping back up to 5, so today will officially have a low of at least 0.
  22. TimB
    Still 16 degrees at this hour. Is today the day we finally break that ridiculous streak?
  23. TimB
    Good point.
  24. TimB
    In a word, no.
  25. TimB
    God, the way they melt down when these storms fail them (and I do believe this one will) puts the PA threads to shame.
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