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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Things seem to have moved away from locking in the really cold air next weekend to possibly putting us in a better pattern for snow.
  2. TimB
    The EC suggests it could be that same region, and throws the good stuff our way as it finally ejects north.
  3. TimB
    Euro seems to be all about the cold next week. It’s been very consistent in that regard. Not “last panel of the Ukie” cold but plenty cold enough.
  4. TimB
    I’m not holding my breath on this one, it’s over a week out. If I had to bet, there will be a good snowfall somewhere, but it really could be anywhere if it does happen.
  5. TimB
    If it played out that way, that’s a scenario where I would use the word “biblical.”
  6. TimB
    Comes north for you guys. I’m not in the game this run.
  7. TimB
    Look at that beast on the 12z GFS. Two feet of snow along the GA/SC line.
  8. TimB
    PIT even observed a few flakes around the 6:00 hour.
  9. TimB
    I noted this in Western PA, but a reminder from a year ago:
  10. TimB
    Interesting how much the overnight cloud cover was under-forecast. NWS had a forecast low of 4 but it looks like PIT never reached single digits. Edit: I spoke too soon. Looks like the 8:10 obs was 9.
  11. TimB
    Would be hard to bet on 2 cold months in a row but I’d settle for an up and down February with storm chances.
  12. TimB
    GFS looks fantastic if you ask me. Some clippers and it kicks the can on the pattern change.
  13. TimB
    Yep. The ones for our area released with two weeks lead for Dec and Jan were equally bad. The December one had us in the “equal chances” area, and the January one had us above normal.
  14. TimB
    I feel like the CPC can issue a map that looks like this every month and be right more often than not: Then again, they issued this one at the same time last year:
  15. TimB
    I mean, if we do end up with two crappy winter months and one decent to good one, I’m glad it was January.
  16. TimB
    Nothing noteworthy for the first two systems on the Euro. Sunday system is weak, Tuesday system slides too far north for anything impactful.
  17. TimB
    On the positive side, GFS and CMC both give us at least an inch on Sunday and a couple to a few inches from the early week system.
  18. TimB
    It is, unfortunately, the pattern changer. The 500 pattern looks much more like December after that, but it’s a week and a half away and hopefully won’t have the kind of staying power it had in December.
  19. TimB
    That’s the problem, if this phases with the southern stream I could see major p-type issues.
  20. TimB
    I believe so, yes. Aren’t they both clippers in some form, except the Mon-Tues one tries to tap into southern stream moisture?
  21. TimB
    TWC sees the Monday-Tuesday thing as a possible low end advisory type event, and is carrying a chance of snow on Sunday, so maybe he got it from there?
  22. TimB
    So you’d consider the days of +15 to +20 that we get at least once in just about every non-summer month to be big heat?
  23. TimB
    For example, a couple randomly selected years with a good snowstorm in January: January 19-20, 2001: 6.8” of snow fell, snow depth remained 4”+ through 1/29. January 7, 1996: 9.2” of snow fell, snow depth remained 6”+ through 1/17 (albeit with a couple smaller reinforcing events in between). We just didn’t torch right after these events in years past. And here we are, only down to 41 with snow continuing to melt at 8pm on a day that was only supposed to get to 40.
  24. TimB
    All of that is true. It’s just, there was a time within a lot of our lifetimes that you could get 9” of snow in the climatologically coldest part of winter and it would be reasonable to expect it to have some staying power and not have the majority of it melt within 60 hours of the end of the storm. Then again, there was also a time within a lot of our lifetimes that highs near 20 and lows in the single digits to near 0 wouldn’t be described as “big cold”.
  25. TimB
    Who said I wanted to do anything about it? Just lamenting something that sucks about our climate in recent years.
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